Autism predictions user

>precious metals won't go parabolic in times of economic uncertainty
user-kun...

So should I transfer all my savings into drugs? )) Or the price will crash too? )) What is the best way to avoid the crash? Real estate is a bubble in my area right now

>Trump lowering the business tax rate to 21% will see business boom like we haven't seen in a generation. We'll see 4-5% growth easily, 6-10% possibly.

Then were getting a hyperinflation

Inflation is caused by increasing the money supply. Taxing business less does not increase the money supply, it leaves the business owner more to invest in upgrades, new hires, R&D, etc.

>business tax rate to 21%
>hyperinflation

>Inflation is caused by increasing the money supply.
In the long term 100% true, how ever in the short term the velocity of money also has a large impact. The amount of dollars in existence from 1776 to 2008 gradually grew to 800 billion, from 2008 to 2014 it rocketed 4,100 billion. So wheres the 5x inflation? it hasn't happened yet, the real economy is so in the toilet that 10 years of 0% interest rates and the shitting out of new currency hasn't helped it, it doesn't matter how much currency is in circulation if no one is spending it - however once the economy actually does pick up (such as in your 4-10% growth prediction) all that currency will finally be realised and the value of the dollar will crumble.

Your right taxing business less doesn't increase the money supply, but it does increase economic growth, which increase spending, which will realise this increase in the currency supply.

To add to this further, business has become so dependant on these 0 interest rates for the last decade that any increase would be catastrophic, personal debts, government debts and business debts are astronomically higher than pre crisis and this ties the feds hands, they can't raise interest rates to take this excess money supply out of the economy .

A raising of the interest rates is also a death sentence for the dollar, its damned if you do, damned if you don't, as it will make the US government debt more immediately and obviously unmanageable, which will in turn lead to... a printing of more money.

'we print the money' t. your precious president
youtube.com/watch?v=ihjgYj5tNYk

>So wheres the 5x inflation?

somewhere in between bond and stock market, waiting for a minor recession to swap it all onto the streets.

> which increase spending, which will realise this increase in the currency supply.

no, it won't. that money gets spend either way. whether it's by the government or by companies doesn't matter.
your increase in money was used to buy up bonds (government debt) on the secondary market. you can expect that whoever sold them, reinvested the money somewhere in the financial markets, hence why there is a stock market bubble.

Velocity of money is mostly a meme, but that's not what I'm even talking about. GDP doesn't consider how many times the money changes hands. The US economy is not a closed system. A lot of money may flood in, but it is just as likely that a lot will flow out too as people take profits. The vast majority of dollars don't exist anyway except on bank balance books, or as investments. Companies may be reliant on 0% interest rates, but that is because they were being taxed and regulated to death. It doesn't matter if interest rates increase if tax revenues also increase, which is what the growth will drive.

The stock market bubble no where near accounts for the amount of QE, I agree that the current 'growth' is being fuelled by it, but its not all of it. In fact the vast majority is still lying in wait - to be spent when consumer confidence takes an upturn.

This is similar to historys most famous hyperinflation, Weimar. There was a 5 year time lag in the Weimar hyperinflation.

to add to this further: you're talking about overnight rates for banks. that's a mechanism to control money creation from debt. your zero percent means there's no / little cost for banks to create new money (giving out loans), but also no incentive to offer interest and use savings held on your accounts - which let to increases in people investing in the financial markets: because saving is not possible when the interest you get is below inflation rates.

>The US economy is not a closed system
True, theres an expression that the US 'exports its inflation' due to over 50% of US dollars being held over seas, however there seems to be global moves to replace the USD as the world reserve currency as of recent, specifically from china, which would result in all the dollars flooding back into the US.

>he actually believes the entire west isn't already in a massive recession

covering up the economic reality for so long is a trick even the devil couldn't pull

Assess the net worth, life savings and debt of the next 10 people you meet and you decide how much trouble we're in. Most people are so financially illiterate and ill prepared for the future they wont be able to survive a real correction.

The reason they're hasn't been a western crash yet is because when this next one happens, its going to be THE crash. They will delay it for as long as they possibly can, maybe even decades because they know when it pops its game over

did you look into international QE policies? You won't get the whole increase if you only look into what a single central bank did. For instance, if I remember right, but I might be wrong, I think the swiss central banks holds 5% of apple.

>In fact the vast majority is still lying in wait

I don't know. Generally you're probably right, but during the yield-curve panic at the end of last year I entertained myself with a few conspiracy theories of my own on why even art was / is in a bubble.

>There was a 5 year time lag in the Weimar hyperinflation.

right. that's related to the whole 'velocity of money thingy'. The surplus of money hasn't yet lost it's supposed value when it first hits the street. (my initial disagreement with you was that the government spends the taxed money either way, that's why it doesn't increased 'felt money supply')

You know that we stopped QE about 6 months ago and that we have like 3% interest rate now right?

.75%*

The point is that we aren't giving banks free money and assets are still soaring despite of this.

No matter what little nitpicking disagreements we have, I think we can both confidently say: 'were fugged :DDD'

LINK GONNA MOON LOL

...

they project it will be 3% by 2020, still historically extremely low. The current rate is 1.5%. The feds projections have failed to take into account a recession though, one we are now over due on being currently in the 3rd longest economic expansion in history (despite being the most anaemic)

Does this mean that we aren't gonna get a recession anytime soon?

ahh ... btw. the fed can't raise the rates more than 0.25% because otherwise they risk triggering a recession

absolutely!

see
Your hypothesis has been proven factually false. I think that the current bearish sentiment is unwarranted and that we've just begun to really recover from 2008 crash.

No, Yellen said there won't be another economic collapse in her life time (she litterally fucking said that)

In other news Yellen has been diagnosed with terminal autism and has 6 months to live.

thats nice ben

Stay poor bears

yes, if you're measuring in USD, the rise is yet to come. on the other hand, if you consider inflation it might be the other way around.
anyway, I'm open to listen to making your case. more details, plox, desu.

Lowering of corporation taxes and American exceptionalism. I know that my analysis is a bit patriotic and irrational, but I truly believe that America has rekindled its capitalist spirit.

>I know that my analysis is a bit patriotic and irrational, but I truly believe

I reassert my position that the markets have turned from thrill to unqualified euphoria - I'm sure this time it will be different

>America has rekindled its capitalist spirit.
The only way that will happen is with the central banks gone, allow a true free market - maybe the great crash will have a silver lining

Why do you think crypto is booming? Traditional structure isn't gonna disappear, but it will evolve and incorporate it. There's no reason to think that FED will just sit on their ass and let crypto rape them.

Highest of the high in q2, very fearful about the end of summer

>Why do you think crypto is booming?
The same reason basically ever other asset class is booming

How do you guys know all these things? Can you please shill me some good books about these subjects?

>Housing costs rising twice as fast as wages, education and healthcare costs exceeding inflation rate.
>Consumer based economy/population with less disposable income.
>Tech bubble based on social media companies with no realistic monetization schemes.

seems legit

>my analysis is a bit patriotic and irrational
not at all. after all tax cuts are usually a guarantee for economic growth. the exceptionalism part, I don't know. Germany too once used to talk about their exceptionalism. Didn't serve them well. Rekindling 'their' capitalist spirit on the other hand did.

I think the problem I and the other posters see is that even with easier business environment, the us (and also the rest of the world) still have to deal with the consequences of the financial policies of the last few years.

good job that the CPI excludes all those goods in its inflation measures

GDP hits 4.5%

bears BTFO for the 9th straight year

massive gainz errywhere inflation picks up

you faggots realize there is going to be massive infrastructure spending, essentially no way GDP doesn't go 4%+

I'm gonna dispute your third greentext. Social media companies actually earn a fuckton of money. It's not spooky money. They are really raking it in. Data is incredibly powerful and valuable.

I'm completely clueless.

youtube.com/user/GordonTLong

I study economics

Great analysis, Veeky Forums. This is why we should stick to P&D threads

ever thought about measuring inflation with a single product over the long rung? based on the idea of the economy being intertwined and rises in costs should equalise over time in all segments?

also this but unironically

It could increase the money supply, but it isn't going to create hyperinflation. If the government isn't siphoning money out of the economy through taxes, and if the government continues to spend at similar levels, that alone would imply a rise in the money supply because the government spends at a defecit. That means the government is creating money when it spends, it doesn't have the taxes to pay for its budget. If you decrease the ratio of taxes drawn out of the economy to fund its budget, it is creating proportionally more money, so the money supply is increasing.

It won't create hyperinflation because the money just returns to banks reserves, and if banks have no use for it they're just going to sit on it and collect interest or buy anything they consider a secure financial asset. The latter could be a problem, if they're being stupid (i.e., buying a bunch of CDOs in the years leading up to 2007), it exposes them to a high amount of risk, but if they're just buying government bonds or something like that they're basically throwing a lot of the money back to the government to spend again.

Facebook and some others definitely make profits. Twitter is still struggling in that regard as is snapchat which has said it may never turn a profit even though they do have decent revenue. I guess I ultimately also think that the conversion rates on digital advertising in general is unrealistically inflated and often uses questionable metrics. Makes me think that big corps will eventually realize they are massively overpaying for digital ads and some of the money will dry up. Also concerned by the example of uber subsidizing over 50% of the actual cost of each ride, don't think they could keep customers if they were to charge the actual cost of each ride.

I suppose it would be difficult to find a good thats production covers all segments , and inflation in certain segments wouldn't be apparent from just analysing one good. In the UK theres a good inflation measure using the price of a mars bar (ft.com/content/34859346-b023-11e7-8076-0a4bdda92ca2) although this seems to only work historically and not as a projection tool

We’ll be OK this year. Government regulations/taxes were killing us which is finally being reduced. American business sector is very strong and will stay strong until they get greedy again. I predict a few more good years before they ruin the economy again. Crypto may see some changes coming this year though.

it's supposed to be an index based on a standard 'basket of goods' to flatten out large or arbitrary changes in the price of one item which makes sense in theory. Of course in practice the basket of items is changed around regularly which helps to maintain the illusion of a target inflation rate.

That isn't necessarily true. Price levels aren't all inherently connected at fixed ratios. Segments of goods can experience an increase in their price level relative to others, and this could be considered an increase in the cost of living, but often isn't considered "inflation" by the average person because "inflation" is thought to be the generalized increase in prices. Some supply curves can be more elastic than others, some consumer goods markets might be able to handle a margin of increase in demand which would not strongly effect prices, just cause an increase in production. Prices might even decrease if the demand drives a greater amount of competition and economy of scale to form. It's honestly really complicated if you wanted to do specific studies about how prices react to demand and supply changes (which includes increases in the money supply or velocity of money, which can simply translate to more effective demand for some goods)

that was priced into the market ever since Trump got elected , we've already been carried by the hope for tax cuts through 2017 and late 2016

a basket of goods excluding: Fuel, Food, Housing, Education and Health care ie, Your biggest expenses

>ft.com/content/34859346-b023-11e7-8076-0a4bdda92ca2
thanks, man. I had the idea when staring at the big mac index, though my argumentation would be that the approximated inflation would be segment independent, from the idea that price increases penetrate the whole economy.
for instance you have to employ labour, who'd need to eat, cloth and pay for all other living expenses, which all depend on prices that reflect other segments.
anyway, thank you very much. I was really wondering whether that's possible in the eyes of someone who has at least some real education on the topic.

Read books my dude. Everything you can if you really want to know a lot, even from people you disagree with. Read Keynes, Hayek, Kalecki, Marx, Krugman, Friedman, Phillips, Lange, etc.

thanks for the input. for the very reasons you mentioned I was thinking about trying to approximated 'real' inflation over the long term in the hope that over 10 to 20 years those variables even out.

>Of course in practice the basket of items is changed around regularly which helps to maintain the illusion of a target inflation rate.

yeah, that's why I started look for an alternative - also because I felt like the official rates seemed somehow off.

Let's just hypothesize that all the stock and housing markets crash sometime this year. Would Bitcoin then finally become THE digital gold?
A crash might not be that bad for BTC, provided there is still enough trust and Bitcoin itself hasn't crashed below $1k

doubt it. at least I'd cash out to get my hands on some cheap real assets.

Ditto. I plan to cash out at the current rate Spring 2019. I could scoop up a little cabin in the woods and some acreage for 10% of my profits. That and buy an apartment house and make passive income.

WHY CAN'T THE FAGGOT REAL ESTATE BUBBLE POP. RIGHT FUCKING NOW.
IN DALLAS, REAL ESTATE IS 40% HIGHER THAN IT WAS 4 YEARS AGO.
FUCKING FAGGOTS GET THE FUCK OUT OF TEXAS

CPI includes rent (even imputed rent), healthcare, and education

no it doesn't

Yes it does
bls.gov/cpi/methodology.htm