Technical analysis

does technical analysis work?

Honestly it seems like meme garbage when it comes to predicting things.

how much time have you spent looking into it?

Honestly not a ton. I was interested in it but the little bit I looked into it the more it seemed like it's basically just as accurate at predicting shit as drawing any meme lines you want and claiming there's a pattern. I'd give it more time if a significant amount of the analysis I looked at actually panned out.

but how do you know you were doing it right?

Look up Renaissance Technologies, perhaps the most profitable hedge fund in American history. Averaged >35% annual returns for 20 years straight, including a 98% return in 2008 during the housing bubble. Their secret? They do absolutely no fundamental analysis, only technical.

If you're still convinced TA is bullshit, I don't know what to tell you.

it doesn't work without lots of volume to support it. So for individual coins, it's typically useless. But for BTC/ETH and high volume periods for other coins, it is effective.

They don't do TA retard. Algorithmic trading is very different than the tea leaf horoscope TA found on this board. Source: I work at a top 5 hedge fund.

It's basically useless for an unregulated market, but sometimes it works if whales use it and put up walls at a support level, resistance level, etc.

I'm not saying the retards drawing lines on charts on Veeky Forums are right. 99% of the charts I've seen are wrong. I'm saying TA as a concept works.

Honestly?

so what are the alternatives? like how do people make money daytrading crypto?

Arbitrage is the only way to reliably make money daytrading in any market.

ok, and besides that? like is there really that much arbitrage opportunity?

Arbitrage opportunities are HUGE in crypto. The hedge funds that are entering crypto are doing so only because of the huge spread cross-pair and cross-exchange. In comparison, public markets have spreads that are 1/100000 of what is available in crypto markets.

but like is it always liquid?

ok and is there anything besides arbitrage?

Me & my contemporaries at hedge funds do not believe TA works. In our view, it is similar to horoscope reading. That is, people trying to decipher things that they don't fundamentally understand. The alternative to arbitrage is simple buy and hold.

are you aware of wyckoff? if so what's your opinion?

Yes familiar but empirically it's not real.

Yes to a certain extent. Weekly MA20 is objectively THE line to follow for this rally.

did you try doing it? or how do you know?

you'd better be making some nice fat returns for your investors, my top 5 friend.

wouldn't want to let those management fees draw you much closer to the S&P500, and paid to sit and post here of all things

I've worked at a top 5 hedge fund for almost 10 years. We constantly search for alpha opps and backtest every conceivable trading strategy.

Can you guys tell me if I'm close:

Support works because those in possession of the asset refuse to sell below the support line (obviously) but it works in future instances because the people with the asset doesn't change that much. Long term the composition of those selling changes and they have different expectations for their assets so support changes.

Resistance is the same but with buying but also a self fulfilling prophecy because people expect the price will not go above the resistance line so sell below.

Momentum indicators just show when momentum doesn't match price movement so a trend reversal is coming.

RSI works because people generally want to buy the dip or sell at ATH so a breakout can only be sustained for so long until it becomes overbought or oversold and a reversal happens.

The above TA concepts make sense but I really cannot understand the random rainbow coloured shit Veeky Forums always posts. It really seems that the only reason that stuff works is because people think it will work so buy/sell accordingly. I can't relate the triangles and arcs that biz posts to the underlying cause of price action (people buying and selling).

t. Mathematician learning a bit of TA on the side

The beauty of our model is we only get paid if we outperform.

sir?

You're onto it. Yes some of it is a self-fulfilling prophecy, and yes sometimes it doesn't work.
The idea is to use different indicators to give to a good 'guess' as to what will most likely happen next.

Even if using TA gives you a 51% chance of success, that's better than blindly buying and selling shit because of fomo.

thanks friendo, currently I am just resistance trading on kucoin but they have retarded graphs (not alot of volume for alts) so its kind of difficult

went from $15 to $18 in a day

Yes

where did you learn it?

It comes down to experience and various personal strategy. I like tradingview, but maybe you've tried it and saw it sometimes doesn't have lesser known coins.

if you wait to buy after it breaks out you can decide if you want to short or go long

>top right
meme or not, you decide

There's a famous story about Warren buffet using a SPY ETF vs some high brow hedge fund manager and the best TA Money can buy.... HODL wins in the long run

from various web sources combined with historical data

I was talking about the big ascending wedge in the top left, not the pattern on the right (which broke downward due to many people spreading FUD about Kucoin on their reddit)

yeah man, I'm using tradingview on kucoin, definitely my go-to charting system. I'm currently pretty much all in ADST and its a pain trying to do TA on cryptopia's charts

About 50%. the more historical data the better. it really doesn't work much in prediticting how far the price action will moon IMO.

That's the reason why it kinda works really well in forex, stocks with a year of historical data but not for newly developed coin etc.

so i've seen some paid telegram groups that like do coin predictions. they seem to be surprisingly right and they all seem to be TA. what gives?

This unironically

nice you seem very experienced and knowledgeable

Short Answer = NO.

Long Answer = It depends on how you use it. If a stock has been slowly tending upwards over the past few years. No bad news coming, and company is stable. Then, you can expect the rising trend to continue. So, look at the past few weeks of the graph. What is the average price? Let's say $5 is the middle, median high is $6 and median low is $4. Is the asking price near the median low? If Yes then buy. If it's above what you paid then sell or hold.

In other words
Buy low and sell high.
Don't panic sell or panic buy.
Don't reply to this post or.
Your mom will die in her sleep.

Hedge funds don't use TA