Smart money/early adopters is a complete meme based on the house money fallacy, consider the following:

Yes read my original post, I'm simply saying that from this point on, it doesn't matter the price you BOUGHT BTC at, all that matters is how much money is IN BTC/crypto. You risk and return going forward will be identical depending on when you bought it. So insulting people for being late adopters is pointless, you may as well just insult whoever is in crypto right now, full-stop. If you have X money in crypto you are risking X money, your previous returns/gains don't affect the future.

If person A and person B both start out with 100 USD, person A who invests that 100 USD earlier will have more total available to do with as they wish either a year after their initial investment or at the same time as person B

They can both sell for the same price in say, 2018, but the person who invested a year earlier would have more to sell, or keep, so the "still risking capital" issue is irrelevant "hurrdurr hes not gained anything more because hes now risking 100x the amount of he couldve otherwise oh wait.."

3/10 bait

what are you trying to slide/distract us from hmm

>So if you have 1MM USD in BTC right now it is irrelevant how you obtained the BTC, you are RISKING 1MM USD. If BTC crashes to 0, you've LOST 1MM USD. Your original investment is irrelevant.
Yes, you are right. But what is the point? What are you trying to say?
Obviously if you keep the 1M in the market, it's the same risk than someone investing 1M at this moment.

You are right but this board is too stupid to realize. They will hide behind the weak reasoning of "I cashed out my initial investment :^)" which is 100% wrong.

>Going forward your risk/profit ratio is identical to someone who just bought now.
ROI is measured on the original investment. Bitcoin could go down to 5000 and they've still profited on their original investment, whereas you've just lost $500,000.

The point is that early adopters will have far greater ROI than you in 2020 assuming bitcoin keeps going up.

>you may as well just insult whoever is in crypto right now, full-stop.
The idea of insulting someone from being "late-adopter" is that this whole thing is a bubble, and you're too late to get higher returns, before it crashes.
Obviously assuming you don't have much money.
If you invest 700k right now in ETH it will probably be 1,4M at some point during this year.
But thinking of the average norman who throws less than 2 or 5k into this and want to "make it", then it's very important.

Yes two people with a million dollars in BTC right now have the same risk profile but if one guy had to spend a million yesterday and the other spent 100 dollars 5 years ago that's more relevant in the grand scheme of things. Just purely assessing things in terms of risk profile is autistic and misses the entire point when we refer to smart/early money.

My point is discouraging investments because 'muh early adopters win' is stupid, the only question anyone should be asking is 'will crypto go up' or 'will crypto go down', the profits people made over the last decade have ZERO affect on future profit. Yet people often fallaciously reason that early adopters are in a better position, when in reality they simply have more money now and are risking more money now. The absolute gains and losses are independent of when you invested.

He's just an idiot who needs post-hoc rationalizations for dumping a large amount of money into something he's scared about.

His point is that if you've grown $100 into $15,000, you shouldn't be blasé about losing that $15000 because it was "house money" anyway. You should treat it the same as someone with $15000 extra who just decided to buy today. It's real money because you can cash it out at any time.

But it literally isn't. Ok imagine I have 1MM USD lying in my bank account, and I were to put it into crypto. People will say that's retarded because I already have a million dollars why risk it. But it's the EXACT same risk with people who have MADE 1MM USD and are keeping it in crypto. Maybe originally the guy was a poorfag and now he's rich, but he's still RISKING the 1MM he has clearly made on crypto. Just because my money is in a bank account doesn't make it 'more real' than the 1MM in an exchange. Literally look up house money fallacy.

This is where OP is right, you're falling for the fallacy he's thinking about. This idea that you're just "playing with house money" is retarded. Search for house money fallacy.
If you started with 2k, get to 100k and then go back to 50k, you lost 50k regardless if it's "house money".

>The absolute gains and losses are independent of when you invested.
Lol. No. Look at all the people who bought in at $19,000.

I know it's the same risk I said that in the post you're replying to.

Brotip: only put 30% of your stack max. Into meme moneys, put the rest into bluechips and treasuries.
This shit here is gambling.

You still have 2400% ROI

whereas someone who bought in at 100,000 and is now at -50%

>Smart money/early adopters is a complete meme

Imagine being this stupid

That's my point retard, everyone who held through that dip lost the same amount of money as people who bought at 19k. The only real risk is when people borrow money to buy (retards).

Consider three scenarios:

I win a 1MM USD lottery ticket
I make 1MM USD holding BTC
I make 1MM USD doing hard work for 20 years

The idea that one amount of money is more valuable than the other due to how 'hard' it was to obtain is a complete illogical fallacy, it's 1MM USD regardless of how you got it. Everyone who CURRENTLY has 1 million in crypto is risking the exact same loss, even if you made that money through work or luck or ease, it may emotionally seem that losing easy money isn't 'as bad' but that's completely illogical. The money is just as real no matter how you got there. ROI is a measurement of past performance, and is irrelevant to the risks you take going forward.

Risk is the same, "smart" money stays in & still buys crypto. But the psychological part is very important, see everyone in this thread

>at's my point retard, everyone who held through that dip
So? You seem to think the existence of people who held at 19k rather than selling (smart money sold at 19k btw) invalidates the idea of smart money. It doesn't. Smart money refers to ROI, not risk.

You're retarded.

>Buy 10 bitcoins for 100 USD, Bitcoin stack becomes worth 100k, eventually crashes to 10,000 USD.

Your ROI is %1000 but your end result is absolutely identical to someone who put in 100k from his bank account and had it drop to 10k. You are in the exact same position. You profited more from your original investment but you lost just as much as him because at any given moment you could have cashed out so at the exact point your stack was worth 100k it was logically equivalent to you having bought with 100k in your bank account.

How can you not see this?

You are actually right.
It's something emotional though.
It sounds very similar to the sunk cost fallacy.

Except you're making the assumption that smart money had the opportunity to cash out at 100k and didn't take it.

Your entire argument rests on the idea that nobody is cashing out at "peaks" which is retarded on its face.

My point is smart money is about the absolute decisions you make at any given moment. If you right now have 1MM USD in bitcoin, you are no smarter, right now, than someone who just bought in with 1MM USD. You 'were' smart money when you bought for cheaper. But holding something just because it PREVIOUSLY cost you very little is retarded. You should evaluate every situation in terms of your risk exposure assuming that all your assets are real money you possess. A lot of brainlets don't get this and seem to think that if you made the money easily, losing it is no worse than if you made the money through hard work. Mathematically and logically it is absolutely the same. Your decisions should be influenced ONLY by your expectation of the future, letting past success influence future decisions is idiotic.

I'm actually referring specifically to the use of smart money in referring to early adopters who hodl. You could be a late adopter but be smart money because you take profits instead of falling for the 'hodl' meme, the crux of this entire thread is people seem to think if you got into crypto earlier that's better, when that only affects how much money you have right now. Choosing to keep X amount of money in crypto is as bad or as good an idea regardless of when you bought. I hate seeing people write 'I bought btc at 200 USD so I don't care if it crashes' that's illogical.

>If you right now have 1MM USD in bitcoin, you are no smarter, right now, than someone who just bought in with 1MM USD
This is some pretty crazy mental gymnastics to justify getting in so late, user :^)

Even if bitcoin goes back up to 20k, someone who bought in at $100 and sold at 20000 made more and risked less than you. How does it feel?

>"house money fallacy"

Profoundly stupid, OP.

>You 'were' smart money when you bought for cheaper
They were smarter then than you are now, both at the point of buying. That's all that matters

It literally doesn't though. Going forward from today they are risking the same amount of money. If you cashed out all your crypto, held it in your bank account for a week, then bought back in what difference does it make? The money you are risking right now is all that matters. If you made 2 million and cashed out 1 million, congrats you profited 1 million, but you're still currently risking 1 million. So you're in the exact position as someone with 2 million who just bought 1 million. If it goes to 0 you'll be in the same exact position, with 1 million in your bank account. ROI doesn't change your final financial position.

If you have actual money (300,000), why are you putting it somewhere risky as fuck rather than the market, which has a known and historically established true value? I get why the random user throws his McD's wages into crypto, but any real money should go into the market.

Time is money friend.

You're right about this I'll give you that. But when we talk about smart money on here (really it's just lucky money) it's people that got enormous ROIs. I don't know how it's used in the real world.

I think what we do see is after someone has gotten a huge ROI they are much more reckless than someone with the exact same risk profile because they don't think about it in the way you're saying here, so I at least got something out of this thread.

OP, just spend a few days/weeks reading posts here:

reddit.com/r/financialindependence/

Put your money into index funds and let it sit for like 5-10 years. You'll thank your future self. There's no reason to try for a get-rich-quick scheme when you've already achieved 300k.

Let's simplify this for you:
I bought $1000 worth of bitcoin at $10, 100 BTC total. I cashed out at $20,000/btc for a total of 2 million. I now have 2 million in my account

You buy in with $1,000,000 worth at $10,000/BTC, 100 BTC total. Bitcoin goes up to 20k and you cash out.

You made: $1,000,000
I made: $1,999,000
You risked: $1,000,000
I risked: $1,000

I made the better investment than you that returned more absolute money (and certainly more ROI) with less absolute risk. ergo, I am smart money and you are not.

Because my point is this 300k is no different than people who made 300k from crypto and are keeping it in crypto. We both risk losing the same thing, 300k. I evaluated the potential losses and gains and I believe crypto will increase over the whole year. It makes 0 difference, as to my decision, where that money ORIGINATED. If I had said I bought 300 ethereum for 10 USD each and I was gonna hold them for the rest of the year, most people would think that is reasonable. I'm simply buying at a higher price, but I'm risking the exact same losses for the exact same possible gains.

But I'm specifically referring to people who aren't cashing out right now. If you bought 1000 ETH for 1 each USD, and I buy 1000 ETH for 1MM USD, and we both cash out after ETH crashes to 500 USD, we are both in the exact same financial position and your ROI may be higher, but you at one point had 1MM (like I did) and now have 500k (like I do), your PAST ROI shouldn't affect your future decisions. You take a new risk EVERY day you do not cash out, because it's real money. You could have left with 1MM but held til 500k, it is completely irrelevant what you 'initially risked'.

>But I'm specifically referring to people who aren't cashing out right now
And why do you think people who didn't cash out some of their investment at $20,000 are smart money?

Anyways it sounds like you've made your decision so I wish you the best of luck.

People who sold at 20k are smart money. I'm addressing the idea that somehow if you made 3 million on btc, but lose 1 million, you're smarter than someone who put in 3 million and lost 1 million. Every day you don't sell crypto is the same as if you bought it 'on that day' the original price you bought it has no affect going FORWARD. The money you currently have is real and every day you keep it in crypto you take the same risk regardless of when you bought it. Buying it cheap only affects your profit margin, not your absolute profit.

Would you rather leave crypto with 1MM USD and a 700% ROI or with 200k and a 10000% ROI?

>your PAST ROI shouldn't affect your future decisions

But it does. Achieving the same result as someone with less work is by definition efficient. Efficiency is smart.

...

Efficiency up until that point. Every day you keep your money in crypto you are risking X amount of money. The only real reason anyone is in this game is to end up with X amount of money. No one gives a fuck about how efficiently you made 1000 USD with your 10 cent investment, you still have only 1000 USD in the end. The only thing affecting your decision RIGHT now to stay in crypto should be if you think you'll profit, just because you got to your position easily doesn't mean you should take bigger risks.

> The only real reason anyone is in this game is to end up with X amount of money.

Well, if you're like Loaded from bitcointalk (with his 40k BTC) or the Winklevoss twins with their 100,000+ BTC, then you're not really risking millions/billions.

Because the market doesn't have the liquidity to cash you out. They sell and the market dies.

At this point, they are probably banking on BTC becoming adopted as a currency, or becoming a recognized asset class (i.e. like gold, a reliable store-of-value).

Well.... that doesn't really apply to everyone, but it's an argument against your original point.

That’s a fallacy dude.
If you make one million and you lose it , you lost 1million regardless of how much money or effort it took u to make that money.
It’s easier to rationalise losing 1million if ur initial investment was 100dollars instead of 500k but you’re still losing 1 million dollars.
The risk is the same, you are just rationalising it.

Completely right which is why I've been saying for the past months that if you don't have AT LEAST 40k in this bitch then you will never make it

put it all in a VEN node and feel safe with future wealth. Last chance before it's too expensive even for your stack.

Have you ever seen the inside of a classroom?

You are absolutely retarded. If you have 100MM in BTC and you lose it, just because your initial investment was 1k doesn't mean you haven't LOST 100MM. In every meaningful way you could have enjoyed everything someone with 100MM did, you could have bought the yachts and had the mansions and everything. At the exact moment your holdings hit 100MM you were RISKING LOSING 100MM. Every day you hold you are risking your total holdings. By your logic if you cash out then buy back in you're somehow different. Just because you ONCE only had 1k and risked it but now have 100MM doesn't mean you aren't risking 100MM. Where does this autism come from? Too many video games? Are you concerned with your final ROI score? Is everyone here just trying to cope with having lost due to the 'hodl' meme but telling themselves its ok because 'muh ROI'.

same as risking losing money in real estate stocks bonds metals or fiat. what your point

It is correct that Hodling is ideological, pricing the risk of holding dollars in sats.

Pricing the risk of holding satoshi in dollars is for speculators who cannot see that fiat is more religion than money.

Hodling is not a strategy for increasing roi just because of the growth to happen as normies pile in, but that the network effect of the rollout of the disruptive technology is more notable than individual smart money strategies.

The true believers are smarter and fewer in number. Femtosecond neuroticism about risk/profit is not what crypto is about, although that will be one of the applications.

You do realize that a FED note is a privately printed, irredeemable, promise to pay? Why measure bitcoin in IOU's.

The hodling meme is real becuase crypto is a black hole for eating fiat. Dollarizing crypto profit is not ideologically articulable, which is why this thread.

Coping it is not to remind each other that we are all going to make it, early adopters into a space which will grow by a million normies a day for years.

Who cares?