What’s up?

People have different opinions is the easiest answer.

It’s pretty easy to see market cap, total buys and their prices across all exchanges in the world is a little harder. There’s pretty close to 2.3bil in tether created, but the uncertain range is for the rest of non centralized currency injection

POST PIC OF SHARPIE IN YOUR BOIPUSSY NOW.

Then we might give a damn about your trading advice

>I trade future for a prop firm in Chicago, mostly oil

Ok. So why would you have inside information, or any more information whatsoever than the average Joe Shmoe?

I'm assuming you're doing a little bit of guessing, mixed in with some stuff that people at work tell you. It's really easy to say "Bitcoin is going to crash," in fact, if I wanted that kind of trading advice I'd go talk to my mother, or literally any baby boomer for that matter.

kek at all the riled up neets this thread collected nice work op

What's happening with crude oil in the next 12 months?

Hi Edwin
1k has been thrown around a lot, but that would mean tons of critical support points have to be broken in order for it to get there. It will also break it's mostly upward trend. Don't you think people would get invested around the 3-4k area just because it's a good price? I don't know if I understand how 180~ bil can be wiped out so easily.

Typically if you look at the cyclical nature of markets there’s an initial buy in period that becomes a short term bubble followed by a 50% retrace followed by the 1.618 fib extension. This sounds arbitrary but it happens all the time in a rolling order to all markets in their turn in a bull market. Ie tech then industry then biopharm then emerging market etf etc etc. Right now you’re at the 50% and maybe making a triple bottom in btc. What I’m saying is people who have been around a long time would see this repetitive move mirrored in bitcoin and would buy it up to the extension above 20k. Recessions happen when that process breaks down making a double top. For example look at the s&p in the past two decades and the top about to be made this year at 3100. If you want to be an alarmist only 48% of the moves in bitcoin we’re caused by tether pumps and that’s already been priced in....

I’m on my phone, but a lot of the factors going into the bitcoin pump are leveling off... capital flight from Venezuelan inflation was a big one. I think the tether situation will implode the market causing a panic which will make markets go much lower than expected as bear trends tend to do... but the subpoena won’t be completed for months...

Uhhh. Since I’m anonymous... 63.18-63.13 bottom tomorrow after eia build, retrace to 63.50 ish if the build happens as expected.

Accumulation sideways for a while at 60 for the move to 90 by Christmas when the dollar breaks down more.

Are you btfo of yourself here or am I missing something?

Edwin, you could at least put some effort into this fucking larp. Although again, I had the pleasure to interact with floormen in my time and all you fuckers do is fit pretrained models and pretend you actually understand anything about market microstructure. Care to elaborate on how you arrived at that exact 18440 figure?

you da real mvp OP

Sure, so first of all you have to think about how market cap is not the amount of money that went into bitcoin. There’s fewer than 50 billion invested in bitcoin, which in the financial world is peanuts. Volkswagen has to pay 23 billion in government fines and they’re still doing okay. The idea that so much capital can leave is not a stretch by any means.

Second of all 1k was the first major resistance met by bitcoin when people started hearing about it, there are many supports in between, the most bullish one is around 4K like you said, then a more moderate 2.2k and my bitter 1k target.

Typically, as your meme graph shows, bubbles regress past the mean, which is true in general apart from that example.

So I think people will start buying at more normal prices of 2-3k maybe and perhaps tap an all time low at 1k and reverse quickly from there. It’s just the price that it came into the public eye really so sentiment like technical resistance has to be tested

It’s an estimate I got by doubling the recent low. Longer term estimates on volatile news based assets are hard to determine so you have to trade them like how hurricane forecasters update ideas over time.

What makes you believe that a perfect speculative bubble with all the usual bubble stoppers nowhere to be found can't turn ever more irrational? For bonus points, don't make references to ta.

I think it can and it will. However at the current time it is dealing with a few fundamental issues, exchanges getting hacked for 500 million, no great way for the public to safely and easily (grandma easy) to store the asset. Large degrees of legitimate competition to bitcoin itself, some of which turns into scams which deters further influx of investing now that crypto is in the limelight.

These things need time to be figured out.

+tether. Nobody is really to what degree they have fucked your bubble up

Yeah at the moment

give us the most rational secondary scenario supposing your initial prediction is off

Lmao this fucking retard thinks its going back to 18k? Nigger, we're going to 4k right now. Close your longs you fucking pleb amateur wannabe.

Once we hit 8k its doom.

Falls through 10k here and taps 8k, maybe 7.5 to retest 10k breakout eventually and move down like that for a slow 6-12 month bleedout. 4k bottom. Years of sideways and maybe 2.2k dip when tether exposed as fraud. The worst part for most people is the sideways really.

Something like that would mean your 4K buyin would be like 40k in a decade. That’s how a stock would work, but I extrapolated because of how crazy bitcoin is

All of these things are nothing new, have actually improved over time and generally have no impact on market irrationality. I mean joe public knows crypto from porn, cp and drugs for fucks sake. And tether will be just another scam. Will it tank the market? Yes, no, maybe. Will the bubble pop? Why would it exactly? You need to start with a real series of heteroskedastic shocks. And as you say, what is 7% of 50bil? Also, you are forgetting that its about 4% of wallets who hold about 95% of supply and they hardly give a fuck about grandma anne.
I think where you are going wrong is treating this like a commodity in its traditional sense. It isnt. No fundamentals or rationale exist here. Behavioural finance studied similar phenomena already. Irrationality doesn't necessarily lead to a correction of irrationality. For example, look at the luxury arts trade. Do you believe the next Monet sell is gonna crash that bubble? Do you view it as less or more rational than crypto? Where is the value derived from there?

Great so those 4% of holders are having nothing to do with the volatility, they thus didn’t cause the bubble, nor will pop it.

Great points.
Would you say fine art is a store of value/status symbol for UHNWIs? My theory is that bitcoin may become that in time, for young millionaires. (see: Winklevosses)

no but wait. Remember Edwin, we are talking about your original prediction here. Which goes something like "joe mechanic bought it up to 20k now he will dump the minute it recovers" and that will lead it all down the shitter. But now you are saying its the 4%ers all along manipulating an irrational market. Which one is it then? How does it affect your forecast? Again, how exactly does this change market irrationality.

I said the 4% of people holding 95% of bitcoin had nothing to do with what’s going on now. You read it in the opposite. Why so bitter though? I disagree with other traders all the time.

I see, well apologies are in order Edwin. I hope you find it in your heart to forgive. And maybe I'm just a bitter person, but thats besides the point. So, with this out of the way, whats gonna cause the return to rational again?

One of bitcoins major problems was not being efficient enough for small coffee sized transactions. Now with the added layer of coding the lightning network will probably solve that issue. + some will say that the tether implosion is already priced in. 48% of the past periods movements have been estimated to be due to feather pumps. Btc sitting at 50% retrace now.

If it prints anything lower than the low of the candle that happened a few weeks ago all bets off though.

ohh wise one, should i sell my ripple? its very close to a lose. its been like 10 days

So you would say 9275 stop or so and target 18k and if you wanted to be safe the risk to profit ratio is fine for 15k target

I wouldn't call it a store of value in a traditional sense, but it absolutely serves as publicity vehicle yes. And no, I don't believe btc will reach this type of status. The gatekeeprs are missing. Its simply scarce without a grander reason behind it.

Uhh I would say sell if it makes a lower low...

you are treating it as something that has fundamental worth in some way. As a utility or beyond. Also, you are saying that price expectation somehow hinges on immediate wide usage, how do you go from what we know it to be so far (a purely irrational market) to that assumption? Let me ask you in reveres, why did the .com bubble pop in your opinion? When did the rubber hit the road?