A Theory of Tether
np.reddit.com
This is an overview of what I think has occurred since December 6th, when Bitfinex/Tether received the subpoena and why the following events occurred, based on circumstantial evidence.
I would just post it all here, but it wouldn't work out well with the formatting and field length.
Other urls found in this thread:
tetherreport.com
news.bitcoin.com
bloomberg.com
twitter.com
omnichest.info
tether.to
coinmarketcap.com
docs.google.com
twitter.com
Bitcoin nearly doubles within 24 hours of receiving the subpoena.
Litecoin more than quadruples in ~5 days.
Ethereum doubles in ~11 days.
Tether/Bitfinex received the subpoena on December 6th 2017.
Total Market Cap: ~375 billion.
Total Market Cap ATH, Jan 7th (~30 days/ 1 month from subpoena): ~831 billion
Total USDT (omni), Dec 6th: 845 million.
Total USDT (omni), Jan 7th: 1.5 billion
Total USDT (omni) high, Jan 23rd: 2.25 billion
USDT Issued after subpoena received, Dec 6th - Jan 23rd: 1.405 billion
GDAX Prices (highest volume & liquidity of USD pairs without USDT):
All times and prices are from using the 1D chart on GDAX, CST time.
Bitcoin Dec 6th Opening Price: 11,718.40
Bitcoin Dec 7th High: 19,528.07
Litecoin Dec 6th Opening Price: 100.01
Litecoin Dec 11th ATH: 420.00
Ethereum Dec 6th Opening Price: 432.48
Ethereum Dec 18th High: 874.34
Ethereum Jan 13th ATH: 1419.96
Fagget. If you wanna talk about reddit theories go to reddit you retarded ass
It isn't a reddit theory. It's just simpler to post it there than here. I've been on Veeky Forums since 2005.
But since you insist, I'll post it here as well in full and see how it comes out
Interesting theory, OP. Good work!
A Theory of Tether
Untethered
I consider this the benefit of the doubt / charitable scenario.
The information presented here is circumstantial.
For statistical analysis, look at the Tether Report, linked at the bottom.
No USDT was issued after this report was made public.
The previous day, USDT had been issued.
I am not claiming Tether/Bitfinex were solely responsible for all of this.
All exchanges that have USDT pairs are complicit.
Anyone who transacted in USDT pairs is also complicit.
Most everyone involved has at least indirectly enabled Tether and financially benefited from them in some way.
Those who've made gains anyway.
There are surely many other entities that were, are, and will be manipulating the market.
This is almost certainly very simplified and reductive as well.
Tether/Bitfinex received the subpoena on December 6th 2017.
Around Dec 15th, Chris Ellis, a Bitfinex employee, removed the warrant canaries from their twitter account.
Henceforth referred singularly to as iFinex, the parent company for Bitfinex that has same principals as Tether.
iFinex knew that providing information at that time would end very badly for them.
Feeling cornered with no other escape, iFinex decided they didn't have any choice except to acquire the necessary USD to make their problems go away.
How to do so though?
At current prices, there didn't seem to be any way that they would be to extract the required amount without destroying market confidence and their long term prospects.
Even if they do so, they might not be able to get enough.
A huge decrease from a much higher number, even if it's the same percent, seems like less as it's still so high.
As such, it was decided to pump the price by issuing more and more USDT.
The initial effect is immediate:
Bitcoin nearly doubles within 24 hours of receiving the subpoena.
Litecoin more than quadruples in ~5 days.
Ethereum doubles in ~11 days.
30 Days and 30 Nights of Pumping
Basically all crypto are overall pumping, an almost non-stop crescendo until an apex is reached at ~831 billion total market cap on Jan 7th, ~30 days after receiving the subpoena.
This monthly increase was the second largest ever total market cap increase, 375 billion to ~831, though only a third of the monthly increase from November to December 2013.
Afterwards, the selling begins to eliminate their liability, exposure, and quite possibly make a lot of profit.
The selling had begun and so did the decline, with the total market cap decreasing, due to Bitcoin fall, while Ethereum made a new ATH a month and a week from the subpoena being received.
However, their selling and other events are dropping the price more quickly than anticipated, so more USDT is issued to keep the price propped up until they've eliminated their exposure.
On Jan 23rd, the most recent issuing of USDT takes place.
on Jan 24th, Bitfinex adds ETH pairs for everything, the day after their last issuing of USDT.
On Jan 25th, an article states that Zhao Dong and Lao Mao say they've seen Bitfinex's account of ~$3 billion USD.
On Jan 28th, Bitcoin begins falling again.
On Jan 30th, a Bloomberg article written by Matthew Leising makes the subpoena publicly known.
No further USDT is issued and the prices continues to fall.
On Feb 2nd (the day of this posting), a local bottom is hit and there is a very quick upwards recovery for a few hours.
iFinex may no longer be propping/pumping up the price, at least temporarily.
They may or may not still be selling.
From Here On
Have they managed to eliminate all their exposure and now have complete 1:1 backing for USDT?
If not, how much how more do they need to sell?
Are they now without personal concern about the price and will be content for now with their commission fees?
Will they now allow the market to discover the correct price for each crypto as they would be without iFinex unduly distorting the market, or will they continue their alleged ways?
Now that iFinex has eliminated their shortfall they can legitimately show to everyone that their finances are completely as they should be.
This coupled with the Friedman report allegedly showing that nothing was ever improper in the past provides the illusion that there wasn't ever any problems and that all doubters and critics were wrong.
Stats/Dates/Prices/Events
Tether/Bitfinex received the subpoena on December 6th 2017.
Total Market Cap: ~375 billion.
Total Market Cap ATH, Jan 7th (~30 days/ 1 month from subpoena): ~831 billion
Total USDT (omni), Dec 6th: 845 million.
Total USDT (omni), Jan 7th: 1.5 billion
Total USDT (omni) high, Jan 23rd: 2.25 billion
USDT Issued after subpoena received, Dec 6th - Jan 23rd: 1.405 billion
GDAX Prices (highest volume & liquidity of USD pairs without USDT):
All times and prices are from using the 1D chart on GDAX, CST time.
Bitcoin Dec 6th Opening Price: 11,718.40
Bitcoin Dec 7th High: 19,528.07
Litecoin Dec 6th Opening Price: 100.01
Litecoin Dec 11th ATH: 420.00
Ethereum Dec 6th Opening Price: 432.48
Ethereum Dec 18th High: 874.34
Ethereum Jan 13th ATH: 1419.96
Links:
tetherreport.com
bloomberg.com
twitter.com
omnichest.info
tether.to
coinmarketcap.com
docs.google.com
(Disclosure: I made this spreadsheet.)
>Blaming normies weak hands selling off their crypto on Tether
Not sure I follow re their having covered their asses by now. If they generated enough real money selling on the way down, they'd have an enormous bankroll right now (i.e. ~2bil).
Is that the claim here?
That is what they've had others claim for them so far, as I posted. A claimed $3 billion USD.
Yes, that is the claim.
There are a lot of other reasonable explanations and likely reasons other than that.
PUMP IT
Anyone with half a brain can see this is most likely what has happened or close to it. From their fees and withdrawal fees they had enough to cover it.. greedy fkn jews
Can youu bitfinexed faggots fuck off already tether are the good guys stop being cucks
One piece of the puzzle you're missing is the pre-subpoena printing and pump. Tether had ~50 million USDT issued in April 2017 when their bank accounts were cut off and Bitcoin was ~1k. By the time of the subpoena they've printed ~600 million Tethers and Bitcoin is trading at ~8k.
That's included in the spreadsheet I made linked at the bottom. Do look at it, I think you'll find it interesting. The post is only meant to be an account from Dec 6th onward, not an entire history.
Back then in May I could tell the BTC rise was fishy, Bitfinex was suddenly trading way above other exchanges and pulling the whole market up while having their banking ties cut off, which led me to sell my BTC at around 2k, I never thought this scam would go on for so long
> I never thought this scam would go on for so long
Neither did I.
Theory is probably correct. Tether also accounts for the run up since early 2017.
Having one entity able to manipulate the market in such a dramatic fashion is not good for crypto.
Can i get a tldr?
Tether created the bubble since December
Independent of anything Tether/Bitfinex might do, the exchanges have a financial incentive to list USDT, or any other stablecoin, if they are not able to list fiat.
A stablecoin provides liquidity, reassurance for the customers, and much easier arbitrage.
It also allows them to skirt banking regulations.
Almost all the highest volume exchanges, which they get comissions off of, list USDT.
Moral of the story: scams work and crypto is a once in a lifetime opportunity to pull them off on an unprecedented scale.
Considering how much the Ponzicoin/ "POWH" (Proof of Weak Hands) has been spammed on Veeky Forums and how poorly that ended for probably almost everyone involved, yeah, I think you're right.
Among tons of other scams both on this board and everywhere else.
all growing pains OP
thank you for all the work you have done, the Tether/bitfinex fuck has been obvious and everyone knows it, this will be exciting to watch and whatever happens will only help crypto in the long run
>this will be exciting to watch
Maybe, maybe not.
All the Tether dramatics may be over with for now, or maybe not.
It's likely some new dramatic narrative will appear.
One final bump
I hope this was useful for some people.
great theory man, can't wait to see if it's true
It's interesting that at the same time this runs you've got the big boys jumping in with futures. This was allowed to happen to give them ammo for a FUD storm to short bitcoin. I hope they all get rekt on their longs because they tank it so much that BCH or some other coin takes the crypto reserve status.
We may never know for certain.
Another aspect is market manipulation by exchanges (who can see their own books) to introduce volatility to liquidate margin tranders. Look how violent some of these price movements are that more or less end up back where they started. A good chunk of crypto is betting against a stacked house.
Bitfinex, most certainly.
>reddit spacing on steroids
/r/buttcoin raid,
tether are good guys. Nothing wrong with running a fractional reserve, brainlets unironically think bitfinex is pumping bitcoin.
Tractatus Tetheritus Philosophicus Idioticus
they fell for our tether FUD Jajajaja
Man I just bought 70 BTC just need one more buy.