Blood is on the streets... Not only Bitcoins keeps falling but everything seems to be falling for at least 1 week now.
Let's analyze the logic behind this and how we can prepare.
The main motives behind the bloodbath that happened today is a conjunction between problems regarding the Euro zone and mainly Chinese and American economy (a good side note to any investor is to keep your eyes peeled on anything regarding China. Specially anything regarding the Chinese banks and their, now, astronomical systemic risk).
Regarding the good ole US of A, the future prospects are not good by any chance:
DOW Jones e down by almost 4% since the high in Jan 26th, S&P 500 and NASDAQ fell by almost 3%. Apple got punched in the face by a train and fell by 10% after the sales of the IPhone X failed to impress, the VIX index is up 40% !!! in just a few days and closed the day well over 17...
The icing on the cake is the Dollar falling around 3% this last week, that represents at least 700 billion dollars just vanishing from the American bond market (anybody who is not listening to Peter Schiff about this is a sitting duck).
Government issued bonds are raising and that will boil down to higher inflation and higher interest rates so that the government bond market remains attractive in other words, supply and demand, if the supply of government bonds is raising their payout (interest) needs to raise to that people will remain interest in buying them, otherwise they would lose desirability, this is reaching a point where the interest on government bonds is higher than the average interest on the stock market, therefore investors will sell their positions to buy bonds furthering the retraction.
On a macro level the US government is unable to deal with higher interest in the long run, Uncle Sam is already paying anything from 250 - 300 billion dollars per annum on a average interest of 1.9%, keep in mind that this interest rate went up around 0.6 % during the past 3 to 4 weeks, in other words, in just 3 weeks uncle sam got hit with a 70 billion dollar stick. Keep in mind that the tendency is that this interest rate will keep growing and taking in consideration that with Mr. Trump tax cuts the average deficit will hover around 800 billion dollars, don't forget to add that to a total debt of 20.6 trillion dollars after Mr. Obama.
Charles Smith
I read and the USA is more at-risk
Chase Bell
>Let's analyze the logic >Trump promises reagonomics on steroids >us treasury department is basically bankrupt in a year and an unregulated stock market is tanking the american economy >lets blame china tho
Alexander Thompson
2 - China
Even taking in consideration the power of the dollar fading away along with the american economy, China is today the main reason behind the sea of red 2018 has been and the reasons are pretty clear and cyclical I might add.
Regarding Bitcoin the Chinese new year is the main culprit. According to their calendar it will happen Feb 16th. and as everybody knows, the Chinese mainland is still really poor (let's not forget that they are a communist state) and the gross national production is concentrated at the major Chinese zones, this causes a great exodus of people from the mainland in search of work in the major cities, and since it's new year, pendular migration is a tradition among Chinese workers who cashout their wages and sell assets (Bitcoin included) to buy gifts and visit family in the mainland.
The cashout has been so high this year that the Chinese police is now monitoring the Banks because some of them are at the risk of bankruptcy due the their fractional reserves. Major Chinese bankers were actually caught asking their friends to deposit money in their accounts so that they can pay everybody.
3 - Conclusion:
There is no way to tell if Bitcoin or the stock market will stop retracting. But one thing is for certain, expect this bear run to last, at the very least, until the Chinese new year in Feb 16th.
Do your own research and manage your portfolio accordingly, cut your losses if you think you should and stand your ground where you must.
Darker days are ahead of us, but always remember that where there are many people crying somebody will go there to sell them handkerchiefs
Henry White
Lately Ive been investing in canned goods and ammunition. This might get ugly
Jaxon Collins
Well the USA and Japan to be more precise. Korea will be going down harder than the Challenger. China will dip momentarily then rise steadily The only blindspots would be Brussels and Brexit.
Not too sure how to reconcile that in an overall investment strat. Too much uncertainty in the EU to make a definite statement.
Aiden Gonzalez
read the whole thread.
no, regulation will not save the US, free market capitalism will something you guys havent had since the tycoon era
Blake King
Japan is kill already. China is kill too becaus their numbers are highly inflated an they dont allow foreign research on their economy.
EU is also kill Deutsche Bank is acting up, their balance has gone to shit and they keep buying bonds of shitty european countries furthering their debt
Ryan Turner
>free market capitalism You are recommending cyanide pills as a cure for a stomach ache.
Elijah Jones
Are you imbecilic? Did you miss the Pajeet panic-selling because of the purported crypto ban? Did you miss the Korean/Japanese panic-selling over the past weeks? The ongoing American market correction?
Do you seriously think that blaming a Chinese National Holiday for the fall in BTC is intelligent analysis? In whichever case, I hate to see your degree...
Bentley Wood
so, with inflation pending, if we knew a deflationary asset class money could flock to.. it might be wise to accumulate it.
Ayden Gutierrez
No I'm not. Your vision of free market is probably wrong
Try explaining yourself instead of making accusations
Colton Ross
Btc is falling because of everything I stated, the chinese new year is only a factor
Benjamin Morgan
not to mention the tether fud created by bloomberg
William Gutierrez
Metals and property is the way to go.
Crypto too, but only if you know what you are doing
Xavier Gonzalez
The people blaming chinese new year are the same ones who blamed christmas for its fall from 20k.
I predict that BTC will pump to above 9k this weekend like it has been doing these past few weeks and then go back to 7k.
>but it only has a 2 billion marketcap XD
There's going to be a senate hearing on cryptos next week, expect the crash to continue if it can't be strictly interpreted as positive.
William Howard
>China is kill Not entirely true Seeing as they are the only ones with the REAL economy on their side, they will still get hit tho
Japan will not be kill but will overall continue to decline. Korea is the one country highest-at-risk in EA, mainly due to their exports getting hit the hardest.
When we look at EU, we look at Germany and Western Europe (Excluding France), not anyone else. Every other European country is going to the shitter.
In Asia, even emerging economies like Vietnam/India will have a harder time with import and export
The Real Question now is if the current US situation is remotely sustainable, are we going to a flash crash? And how would the Feds react to that, considering every fiscal/monetary option has been exhausted.
They don't know that people normally sell their stocks in Dec and buy back in Jan. January effect could explain the bull run we had in Jan. But then again, I don't have much faith in pseudo-science with such a flimsy foundation.
Alexander King
China is massively propped up by the government easy credit.
Their move on the petro dollar with russia and their massive gold hoarding might save their asses but the US is done for.
You guys have nothing else to do but purge and hope to come out alive.
This next crash will make 1929 look like a joke and that's not even considering that back then people had much more know how on how to fiz stuff and provide for themselves. Its gonna be a total shit storm
Ian Morgan
I think this situation seems like the largest problem. Either banks eventually can't sustain their bonds scheme and fiat collapses. Consequently the economy as well. It might be bearable inflation or even a catastrophic case of hyperinflation but that seems unlikely. Still keeping money in banks seems to be getting increasingly risky. If this scenario happens, it will take time, until the banks collapse on themselves.Crypto should act as a hedge against that since it will get much more attractive if your fiat starts freefalling. Physical assets are king here however, anything valuable you own and isn't in a bubble like houses.
The other scenario should be that banks manage to squeeze the money needed to stabilize fiat from elsewhere. Think of stocks bubble, housing bubble. They have stakes in these. They might stop buying bonds even. If that happens, every market will be fucked but fiat will retain its value. There would be a massive recession, but to me as a layman this one seems like the more desirable option over a total economic collapse. This one best hedged against with fiat.
Seems like a no-brainer to spread it out between these two options?
Jayden Fisher
we all know this user, only question was and still is: when?
Josiah Flores
When the fuck is China going to collapse already??? Weve been hearing about it for years now.
I want to scoop up some cheap property in South East Asia but these goddamn chinks keep artificially propping up the price of property, goods and services in these countries. Not to mention these fucking Chinese tour groups you see everywhere consisting of uneducated farmers turned "middle class" are absolute subhumans and tourists of the worst kind. FFS I really hope their economy tanks and these cockroaches return back to the fucking farms from where they came.
Austin Anderson
If I knew I would be one rich motherfucker that even bill gates, george soros and his globalists friends would come to my house to suck my dog's ding dong for free.
Noah Miller
The crypto crash started with Korea imposing strict regulations on their exchanges, and then carried on with the proposed ban in India and the auditing of Tether by the US government.
Landon Powell
Personally, since I live in a shitty south american country. I'm turning towards owning property and means to sustain myself.
I'm also working on expediting my european citizenship so I can move to Austria.
I have no Idea what you muricans should do, cant see banks squeezing money due to fractional reserves and the FED wont be there like in 08.
Chase Kelly
I was thinking more of a repeat of 2008 but without anyone left to bail Big Businesses out. Another Great depression would be extreme and detrimental for any US resident but for other countries with sufficient liquidity, they can just scoop up American/European/Korean tech/franchises/businesses for cheap like what happened in 2008-2010. Some Major Economies will benefit, while certain developed countries will be left to rot.
Depends on which side you are on, really
Justin Kelly
Anyway, expecting riots and hypeinflation over a normal economic crisis is not the smartest move. 2008 didn't bring down apocalypse either and that was supposedly a bigger one.
I'm kinda debating buying a house. Its price might collapse soon as I buy, but on the other hand I'd have a roof over my head if the worst somehow happens. Certainly gonna start stocking up on water just in case too, now's a good time to get paranoid if you ever were going to
Austin Ward
...
Christopher Bell
Not the best time to buy a house unless it is a gated community with private security (Think: South Africa)
Lucas White
crash ready for a pump during a war to keep ppl happy
Justin White
buy a homestead with some kind of well or river. Arable land and heirloom seed.
Then and only then start stockpiling weapons.
That's what I'm doing at least.
Bear in mind though, that I hate living in the city, so country life suits me and its safer
Cameron Perez
Any bets on who might be the strong economies taking the benefits? I'd say EU might have had a shot but like you said Deutsche bank is on edge and there's a lot of shitcountries that will make sure to bring it down. Asia has had housing bubble trouble but might be strong economically. US is a mess
Ian Lopez
Good point, there's a thin line between it hedging against inflation and getting looted by gangs.
No weaponry, eurocuck. Oughta get a baseball bat or something maybe...
Asher Hernandez
Weapons are prohibited here too and that is not keeping me.
Do what you must user, do what you must.
As soon as my EU citizenship is green lit I will pack my shit to Austria, if SHTF I can just hop on to Switzerland and actually have a shot at surviving, other than that it's a nice country with nice gun laws.
Kevin White
Maybe it won't come to the worst, but if it does, good luck
Noah Phillips
you too user
Carson Perry
Last Economic recession, we had India/China buying everything for cheap for entire companies to specific individuals For instance in the automotive industry alone, Tata bought JLR Mahindra bought Sangyong & recently, Pininfarina Geely bought Volvo/London Black cabs/Drivetrain International(Australia's GM transmission provider)/Lotus BAIC bought Saab (But GM refused to sell them the trademark) Dongfeng bought into PSA SAIC bought MG
The Chinese car manufacturers especially have been aggressive in hiring the top design/engineering talents from the EU/USA/Japan/South Korea.
An example would be Haval, Great Wall Motors (GWM)'s premium branch who acquired the likes of Suguya Fukusato, the former Chief Engineer at Toyota & Pierre LeClercq (Ex-BMW designer).
Another example would be Geely whose Chief designer is currently Peter D. Horbury of Volvo fame.
Hence, my bet is again, on India/China. They have specific interest in Western technology and many of their companies have grand ambitions/plans/foundations for global expansion
Not to mention, the hordes of homeless who tend to loiter around neighbourhoods and cause mayhem/property damage, shitting up the suburbs & driving down property value (Case-in-point: Seattle/SF)
Adrian Scott
>Capitalism fails >That's not REAL capitalism Being start paying the commies for using their argument mr. lolberg.
Gavin Carter
Highly regulated market with a ton of government intervention and government controlled fiat currency that is legal tender to every debt by sheer use of force.
Prove to me how the fuck that is capitalism you fucking faggot. Any chance you had at capitalism was lost after the Sherman act of 1890 its been downhill from that point forward.
The US is a fucking democracy for Christ sake... democracy is the fucking dumbest form of fucking government in existence.
