I've seen a lot of threads today talking about markets outside of crypto and the macroeconomy in general

I've seen a lot of threads today talking about markets outside of crypto and the macroeconomy in general.
Lots of anons seem to have questions, I am an econ grad and follower of the austrian school, I wrote my dissertation on Mises' theory of money and credit so I believe I have a good insight into business cycles and monetary policy.
If you have any questions about the macro situation or the markets I would be happy to give you my opinion.

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why are people dumb and cash out to buy gold or other assets that are only profitable if you hold them 10 years?

>why are people dumb and cash out to buy gold

Why would you realistically buy gold or silver when you could just buy LINK and FUN kek

gold is for boomers what is tether for you

Im serious, whats the point in going from the most risky to the in the long run most secure asset. If you hold gold short time you will make huge loss due to inflation. There are way better assets like bonds to make small but secure gains.

Probably because we're not talking about $1,000 - $5,000 here. We're talking about upwards of $50,000 - $1MM that someone would want to put into a balanced portfolio outside of crypto.

Would love to be able to afford to drop $50,000 on LINK right now though lol.

The precious metals are the only asset class (up until the invention of crypto) that are no one else's liabilities - this gives them great stability as they are not susceptible to losses in economic downturns or times of uncertainty. I don't know where your getting your opinion that you must hodl for 10 years, in times of economic trouble gold goes on massive bull runs and we are certainly approaching serious turmoil. Pic related is Gold's 1970s bull run, also go and have a look at golds 2000 - 2013 bullrun, we are now entering the third great bull run.

2011 sorry

What kind of gold would you get if you had budget of $15k?

The independence argument is not completely true but I get what you mean. In general the gold price is an accumulation of mining and other gold company types though so it depends a bit on others too. The speculation of a new bull run is understandable too, it's been 5 bad years for gold, but I must say in regard of the tech bubble it also could suffer some loss because nowadays many people invest in gold also because of its industrial usage. Metals like aluminium that are necessary for real estate are better at the moment in my opinion. Sure gold could boom soon enough but at average you dont make much more profit by holding it short time as you could by going into stocks. The stock market may crash but it still has an average of 8% each year. Blue chips or well managed companies face recession very well.

Depends what country you live in, I think in the USA you have to pay capital gains on Gold. In the UK Gold Britannia and Sovereign coins are capital gains tax free so I always buy them, if its different in your country then just choose the form you like most, but I suggest bullion coins

>following a "school" of economics
There aren't "schools" of physics, nor "schools" of mathematics. This is why nobody takes economists seriously.

>I wrote my dissertation
And that makes you think you know shit?


Economics isnt a science, it is a social studies...chill.

>Metals like aluminium that are necessary for real estate are better at the moment in my opinion.
Things like aluminium, copper etc are to linked to the state of the macro economy for my liking.
>Sure gold could boom soon enough but at average you dont make much more profit by holding it short time as you could by going into stocks.
first of all, do not go any where stocks at the moment. Gold is the lowest risk investment, I also see it as having the highest upside potential. In my view investing in gold is like being given a free spin in the casino, if I loose I don't really loose, if I win I win big.

>If you hold gold short time you will make huge loss due to inflation.

Dear smart person. Are traps gay?

maybe that's because physics and maths are hard sciences??? Ironically its the Keynesians who view economics as a science, Austrians have a much greater understanding of the subjective - I think you would like Austrian economics if you look into it. I don't believe the economy can be represented by an equation.

The reason I'm not piling up on precious metals right now is that I believe a part of their value is speculative. And I think crypto might take some of that speculative value if successful.

phd in economics here from harvard.

ecnomicsts doesn't know anything. if they do, they would be billionaire econ guys everywhere.

ceteris paribus my ass.

Yes! Romantic relationships should only be between a man and woman, from a moral point of view but also from a utilitarian view - its the best way to organise society to live harmoniously as nature intended.

We're in a housing bubble right now. If anything the price of building materials will drop if the economy decides to shit itself.

I'm not so dumb as to believe that non-scientific fields aren't worthy of inquiry, but I find it troubling that there are so many dissenting opinions and schools of thought in what should be rather objective. There is far less bickering in psychology and sociology, both of which are less quantitative than economics. Good fields shun the quacks and pseudo-scientists, they don't let them flourish and give them a bad name.

yes Im serious look the gold price doesnt go up proportional to inflation, the ladt 5 years it stagnated and you would have made a loss of about 0,02^5 due to inflation.
Gold may have been a low risky investment over human existence, but if the gov doesnt increase interest quickly people have not much options to flee if the stock market crashes. Furthermore there are fields or products that wont notice the crash. Real estate often goes well through a crash and is a secure ledger if there is no real estate crisis, energy and mining corps are also sustainable, maybe even agriculture.

Maybe here or in the US but not in Asia, India or Brazil

Everything is in a bubble, its not just the stock markets that are going to crash, its going to be everything - stocks, bonds and housing. They have all been over inflated by loose monetary policy - the only asset not in a bubble is gold and silver
The quantitative data backs up Austrian theory, the only problem with the implementation of Austrian theory is that it is pro very small government and therefore would never be endorsed by the state, which exists to gain more power.

If i have 1k, should i diverse or only invest in 1 thing?
Also is the crypto market gonna completly crash soon? Or is it unlikely

order fees are probably too high to diversify huge with only 1k, a fund for a broad investment with low fees may be smarter in that case

gold is the only way to compare price over time, it is the value datum because all things degrade relative to it.

the average yearly income in 1925 was $3481 usd. gold was $21 an ounce that would make the average income 165 ounces or $219000 in todays dollars

if you don't measure your portfolio in gold you're living in the matrix created by Keynesian economics implemented by the federal reserve

how to fuck do i even buy 100k of gold?

>s the crypto market gonna completly crash soon? Or is it unlikely
I don't know, the potential of crypto is really unprecedented and I therefore I have nothing to compare it against. I am personally not invested in crypto (besides a few memecoins I have sitting in physical wallets) I think its likely for a crypto crash just on gut feeling, a few coins will survive and thrive like the amazons and googles of the dotcom bubble but I don't want to gamble on which coins they may be, I do not think however that bitcoin will be one of them.
>If i have 1k, should i diverse or only invest in 1 thing?
Is 1k alot of money to you? If not I would go all in on something more speculative like silver, you can also get a more impressive ammount of silver for 1k than you could gold, you might feel bummed getting less than 1 ounce of gold for 1000 dollars

>the average yearly income in 1925 was $3481 usd. gold was $21 an ounce that would make the average income 165 ounces or $219000 in todays dollars
The theft that has been committed against humanity makes me really sad, even sadder is that normies can identify it but then go towards left-wing ideologies they believe will fix it, but will only make it worse.

>not getting into the greatnpalladium bull run

Depends on your country, I can't really advise on that - I buy all my gold through an online dealer though and get it delivered.

crypto can make i never happen again but we've got to make it through WWIII first and we have to beat to beat the communists

either at your bank or a seller that has products like currencies, metals and CFDs

Palladium has gone up 57% in the past year, bretty nice gains desu

OP do you think ETFs/ Stock buybacks are going to soften the expected market crash and equilibrium over time instead of all at once

You're not gonna be able to sell it at its spot price though. So you need bigger gains than that to actually make a decent profit.

If everything everything crashes you should be physically invested in other metals, like lead and brass.

If not, stocks still outperform gold in the long term.

Either way your advice is dumb

>have to pay 15% (((tax))) if you sell gold/silver in my ''country" even if the price goes down

Fuck it.

Seriously stick your meme degree up your nasty thicclet anus, you know shit about real world economy.

I just like to buy shiny things that I can touch and see. I buy gold and silver because it’s much better than passing money away on toys and clothes and shit.

A lot of the stock buybacks have already happened, businesses have taken out a lot of debt to do these buybacks and I don't think they could do much more, especially in a scenario where the interest rates are more expensive. I don't really understand your question about how ETFs could soften the market crash. If you asking what I predict the crash to look like I think it will be a similar speed to pic related, but without the QE rally to come in a save it.

What country?
I don't have any palladium, only gold and silver - you can always sell gold and silver at at least spot price though
Refute with facts instead of caps lock and insults please

If you don't have bullets, bandages and beans to back up your bullion you'll not make it during a financial collapse.

what it really looks like pricedingold.com/dow-jones-industrials/

I have a couple guns but I don’t believe there will be a total financial collapse anytime soon.

Dropped forever

I'm going for a shower, I'll answer more in 15-30 minutes

mfw when i own gold, silber, rental property, farmland, forest and crypto

crypto gives me the "thrill" i'm missing from the other assets


That looks like btc/GBP Jan 2018

How old are you? Literally miring assets desu

Eastern EU shithole, it really doesn't matter. It was only 10% the year before,now the fucking piece of shit government decided to rise it to 15%. I guess they aren't going to stop there.

Also beside the tax there's the (((spread))) from (((merchants))) who sell coins/bars, so if i'll need money for something urgently and had to sell gold i'd have to lose money because of (((spread))) and (((taxes))). Also i can even open the sealed plastic container with the gold, if i do there's like 10 or 20% price reduction if i will want to sell it.

Precious metals is an option for people who can put aside like 100k USD/EUR and forget about this for at least 10 years or so. Average Joes will only get fleeced.

I didn't know you could buy bitcoin with Good Boy Points?

Only golden tendies.

what do i do with an insubstantial amount of physical silver (about 700€ worth)? just keep it in case this whole shitshow goes bust and people go back to hard currency or whatever its called? doesn't really seem worth it to sell it for gain unless the silver price skyrockets

How do I even buy gold OP? Do you actually hold the coin? Is it shipped to you? Are you buying pieces of actual gold?

Help a brainlet understand

gold is way too expensive for most people to actually get physical gold in any real quantities

Just wanted to thank you on a very interesting thread. I was just wondering why you suggest Gold Coins over Bars?

30, grew up besides the small farm of my grandparents, so this is where the farmland and forestry comes from
more pleb but hardworking household
thank god no one sold ever, only grew
part economist myself bruder
miring the miese, gets a lot of traction lately

Just shows you are talking out of your ass, most bullion dealers accept gold bars without the plastic container, since they will have to be cut down and tested in order to verify their authenticity.

Ebay or national mint. You buy they ship, you hold.

They sell them over the counter in most banks in Switzerland

Disagree. Everyone should own some gold. At least an ounce.

Economics = financial palm reading


Are you fucking retarded?

Theres three ways to buy gold: Physical, Paper or Mining stocks.
Paper is ETFs, don't buy them, if you don't hold it you don't own it - they don't have the gold they say they have.
Mining stocks amplify the gains and losses in the gold price, there are also business risk with each individual company. ie. One of their mines might not have the projected output etc.
Physical gold is the best way to go imo, I buy from an online dealer and take delivery, if you live in the UK use bullionbypost, if you live in the US use goldsilver.com

Enjoy your plated tungsten

Almost anybody with a job can buy a gold coin of some value every month if they don't waste their money on stupid things.

>most bullion dealers accept gold bars without the plastic container

Did you even read what i was writing?
I'm not saying that they aren't accepting gold back retard, i'm saying that if the container is opened, or even the seal is damaged the buying price will be reduced. Because i was planning to buy gold and actually read the terms of the (((gold merchants))). Maybe it's not like that where you live, but it is so in my shithole of a country.

How do you sell gold/silver ?

No that is a lie, opening the tamper proof container won't reduce the price.

>Paper is ETFs, don't buy them, if you don't hold it you don't own it - they don't have the gold they say they have
companies that hold gold for you are bound with a contract, it's not like tether, furthermore ETFs are in general gold mining and trading companies

Do you bother with silver in the UK? Its not VAT free like gold so if I buy Britannias there is a 60-70% total markup over the actual spot price.

Not in any large quantities no, I'd like to but I only have a few thousand in silver, compared to a few hundred thousand in gold, so basically nothing in silver, which is a shame because I think silver is really under valued at the moment

>these rules do not exist in my country, so they cannot exist anywhere else around the world! It's ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE!

w/e, retard
You are either trolling, or just aren't able to understand what i'm saying.

Stop being fleeced by dodgy merchants, you slav mongrel. You deserve to loose money if you are this stupid.

They have clauses that they can close your position and pay you out in fiat. If the ETFs had as much gold as the claim the total amount of gold that exists in the world would change hands every week and a half, it's mathematically impossible from them to have as much gold as they say they do. People speculate that every ounce of gold in an etf has between 4 and 400 owners who all think its theirs.

If you are in US, apmex.com/.

Gold is the most dense store of value, you could have all your life savings in less than 100 kilos unless your incredibly wealthy, you could just smuggle it in and out in your car if you ever want to buy and sell

Is the world of the verge of another great depression, "one in a lifetime crisis" as they call it?
I mean just looking at the amount of debt(both public and private) and how markets are overblown, it seems so.

enjoy the massive amount of alibaba tungsten flooding the market

>buying from alibaba
May as well just shoot myself in the foot

Where do you sell gold and silver at spot price?

Is this regardless of the condition you're selling it in?

I think so

Shop around different dealers, brokers and investors. If you ever need to liquidate really fast you can always just sell back to the dealer you bought from.

they are like banks, of course there is reserve cutting, but the dimension you think of is just delusional, the whole world would needs to be in war and fear for this to happen. You just sound like a fear monger who tries to raise the gold price for his own profit. In my opinion gold has not much worth, it's just like Bitcoin an asset that exists over many years and has a value only in people using it for jewelry. If a time comes when people grow fond of other luxury gold will be worthless and only good for the industry. Clinging on luxury has no means for society. If you look carefully at companies finances and staff you will see which companies have a high beta in difficult times and still make Profit by investing in something meaningful and sustainable. It's not like companies will just decay and cease to exist.

Gold should always be worth the spot price as a minimum, coins will lose value if knocked around etc but should always maintain at least spot.

>You just sound like a fear monger who tries to raise the gold price for his own profit.
You got me, I'm trying to pump and dump a 7.8 trillion dollar market by posting to 35 anons on Veeky Forums's business and finance board

I knew it!
What's the deal with 30% off sale at Royal mint? They all seems to be regular price.


Have you ever used ATS bullion? They also do free insured delivery but their prices are lower.

I have crypto, and I'm also not a fucking idiot who's only seeking insta-gains, so I have 130 oz of silver and about an ounce of gold and I have been accumulating a little more silver whenever I can manage it. I have them as insurance against inflation and market crashes. Yeah, metal are manipulated downward right now, but in a crash they spike no matter what.


Yeah, you go fuck yourself, you illiterate double nigger. Fucking hate the fags like you. You can't even comprehend what I am writing. Have I ever asked for your retarded "advise"? No? Then STFU.

I don't know, it must a discount on their premiums, its still more expensive to buy directly from the royal mint though compared to some other dealers out their

No, im looking into it now though - The prices seem higher above spot that Bullionbypost, about 3-4 pounds per coin more

I saw gold.co.uk having lower prices. Can you recommend any good dealer?

still more expensive the bullionbypost by about 3-4 pounds