TA faggots help

1 million then 500k$

It's over, dude.

As said, my TA played out well and correct. As I sad my performance was horiffic, while I did TA correct, I would not stick with my trading plan and jump from trade to trade, losing money, while missing out ony my initial TA call.

So, TA = good and correct call.

Performance and sticking to my initial idea and plan = bad.

didnt you learn in your first economics lecture that TA is fucking bullshit, especially in the stock market?
>brainlet thinks his funny magic figures outperform big money and beat the market

TA in crypto, and especially buttcoin doesnt matter much because at the end of the day, when all signs are pointing downwards, one whale can just decide to pump it up for sht and giggles and you would endbup liquidated at worse, or on the losing end of the trade at best.
Am not saying that TA is useless, but am just saying that, you can never be too sure of a trade when whales can rampage the market so easilly.

>what is risk managent
In all seriousness, stop hunting is also a thing tho.

>Am not saying that TA is useless
but you should. because it is

What do you use? Hopes and dreams? Fear and doubt?

I dissagre. I'm not here to prove if TA works or not, my experience with it is good, my performance and psychology behind the trades and sticking with plan is bad. Invest your money any way you like to, I'm not here to prove TA is correct to you.

My answer is the same as the upper answer. I don't believe in 'whale' dumping meme, if you do, then please point me one example where that happened and one whale decided top dump and fuck up that asset.

Don't point out a shitcoin with zero volume on shitty exchange.

We'll see, I'll wait a bit longer.

Read "Trading in the zone".

Thanks, will look into it.

The only way to make money with TA is to sell a book about it. There is literally ZERO scientific evidence that TA leads to abnormal excess returns in the stock market. TA is just as good as randomly picking between "it will go up" and "it will go down".
Literally learn about the Information Efficiency Hypothesis and how its completely proven. Everything you could possibly infer from TA is already priced into basically every asset in the stock market.
Here is what one could argue: since crypto markets can be assumed as far from efficient and since you have big big impacts of investor sentiment and a big proportion of financial illiterate nerds investing there, you probably could make abnormal excess returns using TA, but that remains HIGHLY debatable.
People just vastly overestimate the value of past price information for future asset prices. Its more about recent information changes and future expectations.
Not even trolling, want to have a good discussion on this

One more thing: YOUR personal experience doesnt mean anything for the validity of TA. One could simply argue that you´ve just been lucky, assuming a 50% chance of your call being right, I would wager that you could not disprove this statement on a good enough significance level

Before you make any further comment and I have disscusion with you is,

have you ever done TA? If so, give me your TA and show it to me, so I can see and comment on it.

I'm not saying TA is 100% correct, but that's why you have stop losses and stick to trading plan if something doesn't turn out the way you expected it.

Most of people bashing TA here are the same people that can't draw a trend and support line. So as said, please give me your examples of TA and let's see what gone wrong. Bashing something while having zero experience with is completely ignorant.

It's also incredible how much hate TA gets here on Veeky Forums, while most never done it, either want to try it out just as an experiment and see for themselves, if it works or not. Of course you want to mix fundamentals and upcoming news with TA, so you are not merely isolated to pure TA, but the same people bashing TA are the same people that can't draw trendline or support line, neither have they ever tried it out.. which is ridiclious.

As said, I'm not here to prove or disprove anything. Stick to your personal experience and what works for you.

I'm asking here for a year long trading plan, not if TA works lol.

obviously, I am not doing TA because i am convinced that its a waste of time. During my master studies in finance though, i was replicating some empirical studies on TA in the US stock market from some very famous scholars and i can confirm to you that TA does NOT bring you abnormal excess returns in the long run, the hard statistical evidence is just not there.

>It's also incredible how much hate TA gets here and I will never understand bashing it
because there are still some people on Veeky Forums who actually have a degree in finance and who word in the financial sector. see, just as you simply assume that "my TA must be wrong", I am 1000% sure that you never had any financial education whatsoever, since the fact that TA is useless is completely basic knowledge in the 21st century

it took me over a year to figure out how to use FL studio properly and make a song that doesn't sound too trashy - what took the most time was learning the plugins, the terms, the math and the small secrets and techniques and styles.

Same with crypto

Follow this winner and learn twitter.com/PhilakoneCrypto

so again, what is the alternative? Close your eyes and pick up or down because it's just as good? Stay out of the markets entirely?

Well, if you don't do something and speak against it, it's really hard to argue on the given matter. Won't go into any further disscussion from here on, but good luck on your studies, and I wish you do good. Will also take your words into consideration.

It's not just me that TA works for, there's large communities with insanely good traders, which trades you can observe and make your own assumption how much they are correct or not on their calls.

Speak, faggy elephant, and I'll read your answer after I wake up. Bashing something is useless with no good alternative.

The alternative obviously is closely monitoring the market, the companies, the devs, the twitters, conferences etc.
Then trade according to the most recent information available because thats also what the whales act upon. Build realistic expectations about your investment assets and be the person with an information advantage because that is the thing that can earn you money if you know how to trade on it. Not some trend lines and textbook figures. Markets dont work this way. TA can only give you some clues about the past, but it doesnt say anything about the future. Just because an assets price graph formed a certain figure in the past, doesnt mean anything for the future. Its not whats happening on the graphs, its whats happening in actual real live it what is driving prices.

I mean, I understand people that are against TA, I was one of those people as well, until I just decided to say fuck it and start to learn fundamentals, do some TA on my own and see how good it plans out usually.

I don't really understand why people that never done any TA are bashing it, neither know what it is even about are commenting on it.. that's my only concern.

And even if they have done it and got burned or wrong with their calls, they can always compare their analysis with other better traders and learn why it didn't plan out or it did.

>there's large communities with insanely good traders, which trades you can observe and make your own assumption how much they are correct or not on their calls
i bet that those insanely good traders (probably based on what? their performance during the last bull run, which lasted for how long? 5-6 months? its a too short time frame), primarily first picked the coins to trade with according to real-world information and not based on TA. same thing here, there are also funds in the stock market which overperform hard for 1-2 years. but the evidence shows that overperformers tend to underperform in the next years, and vice versa. Actually, the vast majority of stock market fund managers do NOT make any abnormal excess returns at all, and there is, in the long run, NO empirical evidence that any active portfolio management leads to beating the market. People get lucky sometimes, some get insanely lucky. The mistake is to simply assume that their apparent success is totally due to their TA and not any other circumstances.

hence why the most valued skills in investment funds are:
1) being able to stay absolutely up-to-date with the most recent information
and 2) being able to interpret it correctly
markets react to new information, and not to some price patters from the past.

>do this also
>use TA to find trade entry points
What do you use for entry points then? And for serious now, its bedtime.

I get what you are saying and I'm not against what you are saying. Investing into fundamentally strong companies is something everybody should do.

However, if you know that company won't have any exposure for next few months, due to them developing stuff or taking a break, w/e. It's better to go into alternative and just trade meanwhile, while coming back to the fundamental asset that has promising potential and future, if you've researched it a lot.

I've missed on a bunch of 50x and even 100x+, since I tried to trade. But I've learned what's the best as I've gone along with the market. Everything is an experience.

I don't really want to go into why fundamentally good crypto projects are sometimes to overlook on short term timeframe, but the thing is market is filled with short term opportunities when BTC is doing well.

As said, BTC is DOW of crypto, so when DOW does good, entire stock market does good. When BTC is going to shit, entire crypto market is going to shit.

It's called selection bias, and judging from your post a little narcissism.

Let me spell it out for you:
>It's easy to focus primarily on the things you would have done correctly, retard

in properly functioning markets, the entry point is always the current stock price, since this is the most objective price you can get. it reflects all available past and fundamental data and it reflects investors expectations about future cash flows.
now, in crypto, we are just recovering from a speculative bubble, hence there is lots of uncertainty going on about what the future price of cryptos will be.
if you are in for the long term, you should form an expectation about the future prices and then assess whether or not the current price is under or above your expectations.
if you want to daytrade, i would suggest to constantly collect information and trade based on the general sentiment, alternatively just go for momentum and you will be better off than with TA. very short-term, continuations of the current trend are statistically more probable than a reversal.

No, insanely good traders mostly trade BTC and perform the best in this BTC volatility. Which is almost mission impossible, but they do it and explain their analysis/charts very well.

Some are hedging with leverage, some not.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

great example. hedge fund by nobel prize winners scholes and merton, every financial scholar knows these people. they were really insanely good trades and explained everything just perfectly. made billions. until they ran out of luck and their TA failed horribly so they went bankrupt because of the insane leverage they took.

>TA haters

I don't think 'run out of luck and TA failed horribly, while using leverage you can't afford' can be used as an example for TA not working. That's just bad risk management and having no stop losses?

TA isn't real. If you start with 10k and make 1% each day you'd be richer than buffet in a few years

There's really no luck in TA. You either do good TA and form a good entry point and sell point, based on what you see from chart and have a stop loss, if things don't work out the way you anticipated.. or you don't really do TA and are gambling with leverage and setups, that aren't really setups but just a gamble with no stop loss.

Well, it's a little bit more complicated than that you know. Let's say you have 10m$, it will be hard to find an assest with such liquidity, that you could put your 10m$ in without affecting the price.

On a daily and short term basis, for one trade.

What you describe can be achieved by just pulling random numbers out of a box and then using a stop loss position. the stop loss is the key here, not the TA. whats good about TA is probably that it gives you more confidence in the way that you investment decision was formed according to some TA book and not just randomly. its a psychological kind of thing. when no proper fundamental analysis is possible, TA becomes a viable alternative to give some argumentative support for your calls, although it is not backed by scientific evidence, it is still better than no strategy at all, yes.

No, entry points are completely based on fibonnaci numbers, not just some out of a box numbers. And also strong supports/trendline/MA on different kind of timeframes and indicators that tell you if something is overbought or oversold. It's not really a number out of a box, when you can do TA for yourself and observe that in any given stock you want. But that's why you have stop loss, because things don't always work out the way you anticipated and when it breaks the support, it goes to the lower support. You can say that this can happen = support being broken, but that's really impossible, unless the whole company goes to shit and shutsdown.

Well, I said it's best to mix TA and fundamental analysis + if that asset has some good upcoming news.

That's what happened in December when everything went skyhigh.

BTC was doing very well and alts with high volume/popularity on good exchanges had a bunch of partnerships announced. + A lot of normies came in.

You can say this can happen all the time, until you lose 100% of your capital*

sorry, didn't write that one out very well

What? You might be doing a bad job in getting your point across, but it seems to me you don't have basic knowledge on how the market works and how it's created. I think TA has potential, what I do is have long term coinage that I'm not touching, and some money on the side that I use ta to grow. TA isn't meme lines you draw on a chart just connecting dots and shit, it's a prediction on how the psychology of the market will play out based on the sentiment in the near past. You just keep repeating yourself like a broken record, "that's why you have stop losses" "people who bash ta don't do it"

Just because you haven't figured something out, doesn't mean no one has.

Wrong on so many levels.

Not a TAfag, I do read some of them but myself I'm only comfortable using 2-3 indicators. I've been trading for a while and what I noticed is that it's fine if most of your trades are bad if your good trades are good enough profit. This is where most nabs fuck things up they want every trade to be good, so they buy at the top, HODL and fuck their equity for months and they're way too quick to sell when they're ahead. Money is made when a movement is going to continue, not when it's ending. If you arrived late, accept it.

Everybody is in a hurry to call this a bull market or a bear market. IMO it's in a pretty neutral point at the moment. BTC's range has shortened a lot. But it's not a bull a market until the price of reentry is higher than the price the greediest bear wanted to pay. The people that insist people posting on imageboards are trying to manipulate the price don't understand how hard it is to manipulate the price of the big coins. There is a serious lack of trust in the market, some of those that have left are not coming back.

I think most of the people have this saying:

'Then why aren't you a billionare yet, or made 'x' amount of money'.

And the answer is, because trading is hard and nobody wants to trade when they make 'x' amount of money out of it. It's fun, but I'd probably never again trade in my life, if I make enough money to life comfortable for the rest of my life and do something I enjoy. Trading is not really fun, at least not over longer period of time. It's better to just make enough money, put money into index and life comfy. Why the fuck would you need 100m$, if you can live comfy with 500k$ and get yourself a better, more enjoyable job?

TA is based on market psychology my friend, price moves in a pattern and these patterns can be caught before they complete.

When you talk about passive investment, you're talking about the stock market, specifically a time when the stock market was on a consistent uptrend. What do you think will net more money in a bear market, an experienced active portfolio manager? Or a passive portfolio?

In terms of coins, I agree, if there's a project with really good fundamentals that you truly believe in and want to HD long term stake in, you'd be retarded to attempt to trade breakouts and short term trend reversals and risk losing coins. I personally use ta to gain money to put into my long term holds.

For the inexperienced trader, ta is a good way to trick yourself into thinking you know what you're doing i.e. The gentleman who started this thread, but it isn't useless and it has advantages over simply hodling in some situations

+ saying why I haven't made 'x' amount of money to someone who started out 3 months ago and didn't knew shit about trading prior to that and invested some spare money into something he didn't understand is kind of dumb. That's why I'm asking, maybe Veeky Forums is not the best place to ask this, but there are always few people that actually have some good answers and outlooks.

Please man, learn about the market and how it works, where does the price that you see on the exchange come from, how are markets made, why do companies want to have stock tradable publicly. Seems to me like you read half a book and follow haejin on YouTube and that's where your knowledge is coming from

I totally agree with the market psychology, bro, although i would argue that there are some better theories from behavioral finance that would explain the crypto movements much better than classic TA. Its just that, when everybody is trying to time the market, nobody can succeed in it.
Also keep in mind that TA techniques were originally developed based on US stock and bond markets and the investors there. Both the market characteristics and the types of investors are totally different in crypto. Now that I think about it, it might be a cool experiment to test TA in crypto, so I give you that point, bro.
Still, I highly doubt that TA leads to a statistically significant comparative advantage. I would much more argue that the investors who are succeeding with TA are also the most mentally stable ones and are not prone to panic and FOMO and such biases, which is what makes them money / not losing money. But they falsely attribute that to TA

Best crypto traders mostly swing trade, which means buying the bottom, check if there are any news upcoming in few weeks, wait for trade to start developing and volume stting in, and then it mostly plays out by itself, given prior ATH. So the bigger the previos ATH, the bigger the potential payout.

Other way is just to buy into strong coins while being in upward channel and BTC doing well, or wait for them to consolidate after previous breakout and buy when the meme lines cross and you spot divergences on indicators.

One example of swing trader:

tradingview.com/u/alanmasters/

Note, it's bearish market, so new trades probably didn't work out.

And tradingview.com/u/EXCAVO/

But lately every shitcoin is going to shit due to BTC, so until BTC consolidates, its really gambling kind of. Unless you trade BTC.

To get the idea what is trading BTC like, this guy has some good analysis:

tradingview.com/u/TomHall/

but still, most TA wizards that are trading BTC are hidding on discords, not really being public with their analysis.

tradingview.com/u/TomHall/

>was

No you're still a complete retard and always will be

Note: Best crypto traders are BTC leverage traders, but these are really the 1% wizards

Great imput, wish you the best also.

Please provide link to thesis