Talk of big, big crash in a few years

We all know that the capital injection in 2008 was simply a case of kicking the can down the road. And we all thought the big one was coming in late 2016/2017. But in late 2016 Obama asked Yellen to postpone the increase in interest rates, without much official explanation. Most likely cause is that Obama didn't want to deal with a second financial crisis on his watch, and it'd be bad optics for the Democrats to have Obama leave office while the country was in yet another financial crisis.

The only thing that interested me were the effects it'd have on the cryptomarkets. And initially I thought that a financial crisis would mean people liquidated their crypto, much like people liquidate stocks. But all the people I've spoken to in finance believes the cryptomarkets will act as a hub for big money in the event of a stock market crash.

Joe and Pajeet who loses their jobs might have to liquidate their crypto in order to pay rent. But Chad who has a $2M portfolio in bluechip stock, will want to put that money somewhere else.

fyi re timing:
The market crash will come when all the central banks are wired into the fed
When i started working in the city it was about 17 or so
Now it's 3
So we are close.

Good. I hope the governments and markets of the world burn while crypto moons. Fucking boomers created this situation and I hope they lose everything.

> buy a house or something that doesn't crash that easily in value

we just went through this

housing market crashed HARD in 2008, and now housing is MORE expensive

are you that fucking stupid that you think it can't happen again?

central banks guarentee crashes.

Look up George Washington talks about inflation

i think he means in real value, as in something you can actually use in the future or utility

Aren't rising rates good for fiat? Inflation cools off and asset markets crash, but at least the entire fiat-based financial system doesn't collapse

that's stupid as shit, you could buy $AMZN and just rent

if the housing market tanks, your exposure to it is nothing

rising rates are a good reason not to buy real estate, it's going to flat line at best

heres the thing.

lets say there is some mega crash coming. why cant i just buy up a shit ton of medium/long term long puts that are way the fuck out of the money on one of the major indexes and just try to set some sort of infinite profit grab as a trap? in addition to being able to grab a sweet premium on the extra market volatility that comes along with widespread panic selling and margin calls.

is there something im missing here? to me it seems that the only real risk is potentially losing my entire position, which to me is an acceptable loss to be able to smug at NEETs for the rest of my life about successfully navigating THE BIG ONE if it goes through and i win big.

>rising rates are a good reason not to buy real estate, it's going to flat line at best
Sure, I wasn't arguing against housing being in a bubble. I'm just wondering what makes people here so commonly equate higher rates with impending (hyper)inflation rather than a recession and deflation.

So you say you're getting into the options market?

people have done this in 2015 (six years into a bull market) and their puts expired OOTM even with the current dip

Stock market is a scam. The only good thing that could happen is a full collapse

hahahaahahahahahahahahahahaha

We've had super lower interest rates and QE for a decade or so. Nearly all the "growth" over the last ten years has been artificial. Printed money inflated the stock market, low interest rates encouraged growth through piling debt. Property prices have remained too high as people took on loans thinking interest rates would be low forever. Banks have loaned out money that they'll never get back. We never really recovered from the last crash, especially in Europe due to the EuroZone crisis. We are due a huge stock market crash, a huge property market crash and a huge banking crash. And this time China will crash with us too.

If you study economics you should be able to see that the American economy is based on trusting in a lie. Once interest rates go up and the world realises America will never repay it's debt it will all come crashing down.

trumps even gone on record and said the debts dont get repaid
everyone knows
no one wants to really accept it and behave rationally
when cracks show as sentiment changes - print more

this
the big money hedge sharks love a good crash. its when they get to take all the marbles back from all the kids at the playground.

the question is, how exactly do they do it when it happens, and can it be applied similarly by someone with a small account? you can be very nimble with small amounts in a cash fund. its all about how it is done. are there any books on the matter?

i would very much like to. its a bit intimidating at first, but its also only as complicated as you make it. ive been trying it paper trading style to get a feel for the risk and how to handle/exit a poor trade. have yet to really dig into the whole complicated stuff but im incredibly intrigued by the mathematics.

see, thats fine. if i dont do it with too large a position and i buy them on the way up at a staggered rate, im more or less guaranteed to get some of them at some point, provided a serious crash happens. i also think we are much closer than we were in previous times to an all out bloodbath

Probably not a bad idea if you just do enough work to understand how these things work. They've created a damn convoluted system, you think you know enough and then there's some aspect you haven't thought about at all and it turns everything around

The wycoff guys have a major top projected on the Dow at 26k. Based on the basing period before the multi year rally. I read this month's ago. I've seen this method work many times on smaller timeframes, time and price is no meme.

bogs will feed off your premia

This. The stock market is like crypto held afloat by tether but on a much larger time scale with greater consequences. Hopefully crypto will be what Nakamoto initially designed it to be before that time comes.

How is it possible not to know this?

>They've created a damn convoluted system, you think you know enough and then there's some aspect you haven't thought about at all and it turns everything around
yup, and thats the part im interested in. im going to start with just long options so that i can wrap my head around each maneuver by itself and understand the maths individually. the fact you can flip some of the greeks for premiums in and of themselves is a cool trick as well. and i also like the aspect that you can play with small positions and still get a lot of coverage on expensive stocks that you otherwise couldnt afford enough to trade reasonably.

how do you mean?

Without commenting further on your strategy you sound like you have a good shot at pulling it off successfully, genuine interest is gold. Good points anyway, makes me wanna start educating myself too

Its hard to time. It should have crashed about 10 years ago.

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent

so what do you think? we will go sideways for a while? is the bull finally dead?

>hey guys so I'm paid to spread FUD all day by ShareBlue

My friend that works on wallstreet said that this is just a correction and to hold my Bluechips. I'm not concerned.

>his final contracts have expired out of the money
>finally, crash everything

Yep. I'm half expecting stock market to recover on monday too. We could chug along for a year or two easily. During that time you'll just miss on all the irrational gains if you remain rationally bearish, while also getting constantly fucked by inflation. It's a pretty good system

yeah but i have to give it a shot

i think a lot of us should. i know im guilty of it, and im sure most of Veeky Forums is too, but i really need something more medium/long term with less magical inflating bags than stocks to offset my retarded daytrading habits.

that would be a badge of honor if the fucking IMF was waiting for my options contracts to expire. i would still probably starve though. not really a survivalist.

Fuck yes. The more people ditch the stock market, the more people come to crypto and dump bags. If you thought the normie rush was good, just you fucking wait.

Also I fucking pray for a huge economic crash, especially in the housing market. I'll have cashed out some of my crypto gains and houses will be cheap as shit. I'll buy a nice house for myself and a few to generate passive income when the market comes back up.

i mean why not, right? nothing has really changed since the other week. everyone just got jumpy and spooked themselves talking about the fed doing something it hasnt yet

i doubt people who have only trade stocks their whole life are going to want to go into crypto. its like the OTC market on steroids. thats going to turn a lot of people off.

'there's no gold here'

A lot of these things are memes pushed by people who sell gold. The business cycle is a real thing, so you should always be on your toes expecting a nasty recession; however, people have been talking about another great depression since the great depression ended, and even though the economy is really fucked up we probably aren't going to see a Just Fuck My Economy Up tier crash... at least for us U.S. Chads. What European country are you in?