It's not the volatility, it's not all the shitcoins. It's the fact that once many of these coins or tokens finally get working products, their value goes into free fall.
There is a lot of talk on here about things making people rich "once mainnet launches" but it seems that all the evidence points to these tokens being overvalued relative to what they actually provide. I have no doubt that many of these tokens will have real world use cases that are helpful, but that says what exactly? That they can't currently be overvalued? Tokens like SALT and ICON have plummeted in value since the release of their product, however they didn't go to zero. That tells me that this is a large, speculative bubble with people investing in things they don't fully understand. Maybe all markets are like this, I don't know, but I do know it's making me reevaluate my own investment strategies.
When REQ mainnet launches, who is to say it will ever hit a dollar again? Maybe people will use it, maybe it will be great, but who knows what the value of a REQ token will actually be even if it's used by many? What reason do we have to believe they will ever be valued that highly? Same with VeChain, I have no doubt it's going to be useful, but what will be the proper valuation? Is it really correct to assume it will be more than it's ATH? Many people assumed that about ICX, and look at them now.
We are in a speculative market, always remember that. We are all speculating on future prices, don't make too many assumptions.
launching your mainnet isn't becoming a working product. agreed on req though I have no idea why people think the token value will go up.
Agreed, most utility tokens seem like like a dead end. It's not that they might not go up due to speculation and it's not that it might not be ok (stocks and houses are overvalued as well), but the tokens that aren't one trick ponies seem to have a better shot at gaining some "justified" speculative value on their own. Think ETH or XLM. Their intrinsic value is low but if they were to become widespread their values would have no problem rising just thanks to the network effect.
Assuming your theory is true, is that not an incentive for innovation? If you make your working product and the release makes the price fall, then a competitor that isn't trying to outdo you is probably not going to get too far. If it does, it should be because of irrationality and there's a lot of that here, sure. Of course, it's also an incentive for never completely releasing anything and make the value change on speculation but at some point you need to actually deliver instead of only selling news because otherwise even the dumbest mark realizes something's going on.
>We are all speculating on future prices, don't make too many assumptions.
Took you this long to figure that out? I always laugh at the people who say just hodl until you can use crypto for everyday purchases. Learn to take profits when you can, these prices won't be here forever.
This is basically why I've pulled money out of crypto and gone back to volatile stocks where the valuation at least makes some sort of sense.
What I have left in crypto I've put into omisego because if they work out it might be the unicorn token that actually has intrinsic value.
99% of every crypto right now is destined for $0
Salt plummeted in value because the kike developers manipulated the investors into thinking users would be able to quickly arbitrage the tokens up to 27 dollars. It was a flat out lie, and they knew it.
Good post OP. I've been thinking along very similar lines recently. Just imagine how long it will take for VeChain to actually create a functional network which generates value sufficient to justify the current token value. I wonder if perhaps the long term potential has been priced in to the extent that these investments are more risk than reward.
Absolutely priced in. And then some. Everyone yells undervalued but the reality is it every project came to fruition right now, most of these projects would still be overvalued.
coins are onlly worth what people are willing to pay! the gig will soon be up...it was fun while it lasted.....only fools would not sell at least half of their holding.
>pulls out of crypto >invests in something that OP is worried about fucking dumbass
CRYPTO IS A SCAM.. YOUVE BEEN WARNED
Cindicator has a working product. I might even say having 5000 tokens is worth the trading advice is procures. But, on the other hand, I agree; looking at Ethereum worth $900 and yet it cannot run properly a single dapp with real-world usage without slowing down the whole network. But, luckily Ethereum is needed to send around other ERC20 tokens and run smart contracts, so while there are ICOs going, there will be demand for Ether. But yes, SALT is a good example of an overblown price and people investing in something they do not understand
>99% of every crypto right now is destined for $0 Sure, but most of the coins that are going to be worthless in a year are easily identifiable. If you invest only in serious projects, some will still fail, but at least some have a good chance of making it.
But why is eth worth so much? Why is btc? Why do they continue to grow?
Id argue salt failed because it was a niche idea and uneccessary to be on blockchain. Who would use it? What does it really achieve? Ehat costs do business save by using it over current solutions?
All the single use case blockchains and ones which dont have much of a revolution in what they do are going yo peak soon or have already.
Very few have potential. I know of only two.
You're right to some extent, absolutely. However, there are some calculations that can be done to determine a reasonable market value. I've read a bunch on OmiseGO, for instance - if they're marginally successful, then the value should settle around $100 to $200, setting aside speculation and instead assuming that it will pay out a roughly 2-5% annual return (normie / boomer returns) based on staking. Speculation could still drive the price higher, or FUD that that their network would shrink could drive it lower. But in general, that's a reasonable range if the project is a marginal success.
VeChain will probably be worth more than it is now because there will be increased demand outside of the speculators who mostly trade it now, for its Thor Power. They have too many partnerships and clients who'll be lined up to need these tokens. However, without knowing how much it costs (in Thor Power) to execute contracts on their blockchain, it's kind of impossible to come up with a reasonable valuation.
Utility tokens, unlike coins, depend entirely 100% on their partnerships and real-world clients. If major companies have to use them to save themselves money and benefit from blockchain tech, there should be enough demand that they will increase in value from here - but at the same time, they will settle at a certain price and be unlikely to moon once it's clear exactly how much demand their is based on that real-life use.
>Cindicator has a working product More or less. They have a trading bot, but they also have a team of analysts and the advice they give is supposed to be based on both and it looks like a lot of the market insight that came out from Cindicator was actually the analysts talking. People like the idea of a magical bot that will make them money, but - not that I'm comparing the two - Bitconnect was supposed to have a bot too. I don't think the longterm prospects of Cindicator are that good to be honest. If big institutions get into the game, they will have their own tools which will blow whatever Cindicator can offer out of the water, so it won't be used by them. I made some money flipping the coin so I'm happy about that, but it's not something I would personally own longterm.
Its cslled an s curve. These kinda coins haven’t reached it yet.
If success was guaranteed this all would have taken off for the stratosphere ages ago. We're here at the early stage so volatility and uncertainty is extremely high, but that's where most fortunes are made. Personally I think that even with the problems that blockchain has had previously and now the fact that even the first iterations of it are able to handle valuations in the billions for substantial amounts of time with high numbers of individual investors buzzing around shows me that the idea is sound at its core.