IQ over 90 and basic knowledge of TA thread

TA is a fictitious pseudomathematical framework invented to scam people who don't understand basic statistics and need to feel like they can predict a chaotic system. They're the homeopaths of the finance world. You're pathetic.

If it's so bullshit then why does it work nearly half the time?

No sir, I would never do anything silly like invest in projects I believe in. No, I only buy when I see a droopy phimosis double shot pattern.

hahahaha

nice bait
Honestly, I don't have the numbers but I'd be willing to bet it's statistically less efficacious than random guessing. Lets consider the simpler case of TA being a prediction that it will go up or down, when half the "analysts" say it'll go one way and half say it'll go another then I would certainly hope it is better than 50%. In general, technical analysts are slaves to their own cognitive biases and will move the goalposts to fit their predictions.

>nice bait
I'm pretty sure that was what people call "a joke," user.

Nothing indicates that this guy is joking

Working almost half the time would obviously be a bad thing. He's making fun of how all over the place TA prediction are.

Oh I was in bed and his ID looked like OP's, sorry, I'll go kill myself for being dumb

I was joking. It's from a Simpsons episode.

TA works. Not every time but 70-80% of the time. It's definitely a useful tool but not the ultimate predictor.

Mod delete this thread, I guess people are too stupid and fall under the criteria of having an IQ above 90.

I have a hard time believing that figure. I'm not going to ask for proof like some kind of redditor but it just doesn't seem realistic.

TA does work if you know how to apply it, which 95% of the posters on Veeky Forums don't.
If a random guy on the street tries to do surgery and fails because he doesn't know what he's doing, would you assume that surgeries are a meme?

Maybe it could work in a vacuum, a non-volatile market with rational actors and no news. Your analogy is flawed because unlike TA surgery has been shown to work. Good TA is no more effective than bad TA, and many TA fundamentals are predicated on a flawed understanding of mathematics. (see fib retracement, elliot rodger waves, etc) It just stinks of quackery at all levels.

Lowest it will ever retrace is 10k

Why do you even say that?

These pumps feel super fake.

What do you think happens when a massive buy limit order is placed. What will that look like to you on a chart, over a given amount of time? (assuming it's not all filled at once)

(and I should add, assuming that it's not pulled, but placed with genuine intent)

I would assume the price would go up. However, price being a function of supply and demand has little to do with TA, limit buy order indicates that demand has risen and the price will reflect that.

The weekly 20ma (aka the median bollinger band on the weekly timeframe) had basically held as support for the entire rally since Nov 2015 until it broke down at ~10k when everything shit the bed (as well as taking out the 200 day MA). Off the bounce, we spent a decent chunk of time consolidating at the 200dma (~8k) before surging back upwards and closing above the weekly 20.

Higher timeframe stochRSIs like 3 day and weekly are now starting to trend higher and when I take the fibs from the peak to trough on this correction so far it lines up with the prior resistance we ran into at 11k and I think we could definitely make the leg up to the 12.8k or 14.4k fib levels

THERE IS NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT THE GOLDEN RATIO W.R.T. FINANCE REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

And if supply repeatedly brings price towards that price level of the buy limit order, but repeatedly is lacking to overcome the buy limit order (it's reaaallly big, user, XD), what ends up showing up on a chart?

Funny how well it lines up sometimes then, right? Same picture on the daily chart, I wouldnt bet against this momentum

3dstoch trending very nicely

>bitstamp

Okay, I'll concede that a chart can reflect the supply/demand activity in that way, however a supply or demand curve and actual economic analytic tools would be more effective.
Replace those lines with rounded values would be just as effective. Nothing special about 1.618 vs 1.5, or .236 vs .2

>using finex tether prices

top jej

traders in the 80's laughed at fundamental memers who couldnt keep up with shit in real time and it's just as funny now. You go throw together a fundamental supply demand model for bitcoin and maybe eventually you'll get it to output a reasonable value no one else cares about because no one else has seen your model. In the meantime I'll be trading the here and now using the chart (i.e the pictoral representation of human emotions), and if enough people do the same thing as me (they do) and look at the same things as me (they do), they'll generally take the same actions at the same time leading to a self-fulfilling prophecy. People are more inclined to place large sell or buy orders at key levels on the chart that then leads to those areas further strengthening into support/resistance.

larger term picture on weekly showing the 20 ma support and breach. Used the fibs from total rally bottom to top

Your description of your approach to TA seems to be more congruent with my understanding of sentiment analysis, which I can appreciate. I take issue with the idea that TA is inherently useful on its own. I'll concede that the concepts of support and resistance can be useful. However stuff like bull flags, elliot waves, and head and shoulders are nonsense.

I don't believe they're nonsense at all. Again as with most pattern recognition, if enough chart guys see a crisp H&S (or inverse h&s) forming on the chart, they will be more inclined to take a position in the direction that the pattern usually breaks (down for h&s and up for inverse). This adds to the incremental buying/selling pressure on either side and price will generally move along the line of least resistance. Nothing is 100%, but everything in trading is about having enough of an edge to come out positive over time.

The best chart guys in this market I've ever seen were all EW practitioners and they've done very well for themselves.

tradingview.com/u/PentarhUdi/

really makes you think

>charting based on an exchange that doesn't even use dollars

cmon now.

Also picture perfect inverse h&s playing out exactly as it should

lmao, then this would make more sense, wouldn't it

Hindsight is 20/20. Anyone can draw convincing charts AFTER THE FACT.

however you slice it, it all says we're going up in the medium term if not the short term too

it went up almost 100% after 6k$ bottom in less than 2 weeks.

I'm pretty sure and all indicators show it's exhausted short term. I'm still short and set on 9.2k$

-2k... crystal ball, tarot, astrology and master-tier TA don't lie

>mfw i will buy back once the BTC price goes negative and bring about the crypto singularity

>mfw you cucks don't know whats coming

seems to me TA (and EW especially) isn't about predicting the one thing that will happen, but projecting the few most likely scenarios so that you can plan ahead. Get a bullish and bearish target and determine where to look for confirmation which it will be.