Tfw you realize the speculative value of crypto has far outstripped what the fundamental value will support for years...

>tfw you realize the speculative value of crypto has far outstripped what the fundamental value will support for years and its just a matter of time until the bubble pops

Even great projects like req, omg, link, etc., etc. (let alone coins that have zero chance of supporting their current valuations; also these are just examples not a comment on their merits), have absurd market caps considering the main nets aren't even out. Fundamentals supporting their market caps are likely years away and will require massive adoption and beating 100s of competitors and people are going to start realizing this, causing a crash that will literally take a decade or more to recover from, just like how the nasdaq took more than 15 years to get to the ATH again.

Spot on, this is the real bubble.

If it pops I'm buying 100 BTC

the valuation is not comparable to company valuations (different variables) so you really can’t say with certainty if the cryptospace is overvalued or not

it should make everyone reconsider what they hold. If institutional support begins to grow and sentiment starts to shift to seeing bitcoin actually becoming a legitimized "store of value" I could see it becoming one of the few that has room to grow. Portfolio managers will start recommending clients hold a few percent in bitcoin and from there real money will start pouring in. The signs are there between exchanges becoming qualified custodians and jamie dimon changing his tune.

>We're in a speculative bubble
Wow, good job user

No shit, majority of these projects are worth 10 mill and up while most medium sized business in the real world don't even have that amount of capital. The bubble is quite large already

I guess that's the point. People thought we had the crash but the real crash hasn't even begun given how high everything is still valued.

unless something gains legitimacy as a store of value, which is probably only going to be possible for bitcoin and ethereum, maybe some others, the valuation is the same as anything else, some multiple of earnings or the ROI you can get running a node, which for 95% of projects is currently zero.

I first realised this back in November when Lisk reached $1billion market cap. No white paper, no product, just ‘Blockchain...but in Javascript!!’ 1 lisk is probably worth about $0.20 for a smart contract written in JS

Agreed, it could shoot past marketcap of gold in a few years. The others are still way up for grabs.
Good point.

yes it's really making me considering selling everything as we head back into the territory of what the previous ATH was. There's really zero reason why most of these can't go back to what they were this summer. The mass delusion caused by 80% of biz joining in december and january and currently holding extremely heavy bags is infectious though. Spending some time away has made me realize the wise thing is to sell now at a pretty big profit (coincidentally I too rode the lisk train, since august) and wait for the real crash but it's that feeling of being the gambler who can't walk away.

>Link

However we can still see the marketcap surge to multiple trillion in a few years as Warner predicts. The token economics of cryptocurrencies is going to be something you really want to understand to see just how high of a marketcap it can go. The lisk example is a good one on how it can’t go that high. Whereas say JNT with tokenized assets... that’s a whole different story.

Think about what happens when a Fortune 500 goes bankrupt. Is the market cap value returned back to the market? No. If amazon went tits up tomorrow, the amount of debt they have and all the real estate holdings they have to liquidate means only a fraction of ~$600 billion marketcap will be realized. People put false sense of security into stocks based on “fundamentals” but conveniently ignore what happens to shareholders when companies fail

Cont. - when the market realizes this, you’re gonna want to be in the projects with very high potential based on their token economics. We’re talking very long term though, could be years for this, I would bet 1-2 years at least, probably closer to 2 before people start really jumping ship into those coins that can really achieve gigantic valuations like bitcoin can if it succeeds as a store of value.

yea I think things that aren't tied to crypto and have real connections to the legacy financial world are ones to be in. For example purposes only people constantly say tokens like chainlink could never exceed the value of the platform they run on i.e. ethereum. However chainlink will primarily be serving contracts dealing with USD not crypto. Ethereum could go to $10 but when contracts representing billions of dollars begin to flow through the network the price of ethereum would be irrelevant.

The market cap will get to trillions either because they actually get adopted and that's the real valuation or a speculative bubble goes into overdrive again. It's definitely possible because we know the order books are so thin it takes little money to move it up by billions, but I'd really hate to get stuck on the other side of that as the order books thicken up and the fundamental valuation is reflected and it becomes much more difficult to move the price and 10% swings become as common as they are in the stock market.

Its a speculative bubble, but its likely to go on for the next year at least unless the global financial crisis is allowed to begin

But look.
Take LINK.
Shit was $0.10 at the bottom. Suppose you picked 10K for a thousand bucks.
Fast forward, LINK goes to $10 on pure speculation alone, so you now have $100K worth of LINK. So if you want to run a node, you can afford to stake $100K worth for $1K investment.
Your competition who will discover LINK later will have to pay $100K out of pocket.
Even if LINK corrects in the meantime, you are still ahead as long as you will HODL.

>when the market realizes this, you’re gonna want to be in the projects with very high potential based on their token economics.
But I have a hard time believing people in the know who we're all counting on to pump our bags don't already realize this and they're never coming. For all the rumors of secret institutional buyers buying chainlink tokens, and others, I really can't see them being willing to buy into a massive speculative bubble.

crypto is a bubble guise

Absolutely agreed, I doubt even 5% of the people in this market get this. In time it will come.

and it was still a bubble even at the depths of the recent crash. As it begins to recover its in the exact same spot it was two months ago and anyone considering buying back in should realize a real crash to levels not seen since early 2017 is very possible.

>the valuation is the same as anything else,
No. These are not businesses. They are currencies. Their potential use as currencies eclipses any ROI for mining or running a node.

>inb4 nobody is using them for real
Then why are banks FINALLY upgrading/replacing shit like SWIFT after all these years of getting away with jewing people out of their money for shit slow service?

>some multiple of earnings or the ROI you can get running a node, which for 95% of projects is currently zero.
Don't spend a lot of time on mining sites, do you?

Yea that’s another thing I have a hard time wrapping my head around too. It’s definitely really quite odd. The thing is if a coin really truly will either save or make a company more money I think they’ll come around eventually. But the dynamic behind this is definitely a tough one to get around.

I get what you're trying to do, but you're trying to teach retards calculus. Anyone with any clue about investing knows this is the farming profit era, from a healthy market swinging up and down, with people making money off both red and green candles. The retards here only know one thing: "moon". They don't understand that the run up to December 2017 was a one time thing, and that the market has now shifted into a real market. Just read /biz for a day, you can see the ignorance and retardation in action - they don't know how to gauge or deal with a healthy market with churn, all they know is "DID IT MOON YET HURRRRR". They all believe the fairy tale that it's going to drop to pennies a coin, and then they'll buy lambos a week later when it moons to some mythical-and-unsupported-by-reality value. It's hilarious, and really fucking pathetic.

/biz is mostly retards jerking off at the pretty colors. They don't know what it means, but they all have their hands on their little, teeny retard dicks because...well...Veeky Forums.

Think about it this way.
30 years ago, would you buy drilling rights to deep sea oil in Angola, despite the fact that there was not technology to extract that oil? Why?

So you’re saying it’s like a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist yet kind of thing?

It's sustaining itself right now, like Beanie Babies did, for a while. It's mostly people trading the same coins back and forth, on the ups and downs, there's not a whole lot of new holders coming onto the market - and that's fine, you can make a shitload of money off it, if you understand what's going on. Just pick a target, and work your bets accordingly. The retards around here don't understand that, the only thing they think counts is a meteoric rise to 21k, or meteoric crash to sub 4k - and don't understand why either is impossible right now, but that doesn't stop them from sniveling about it not happening, and think that the healthy market that's going on right now is somehow broken and not supposed to be this way. If the retards here could control the market it, it would bounce between 100k and 0 every 5 minutes, because that's all they understand, is extremes. Kind of like a baby - a baby won't understand words, but laugh like a mongoloid at a goofy face. The market has to do the equivalent of a goofy face to get a reaction from the waterheads and spastics here.

quality FUD...
i hope you get paid for this.
i'm actually impressed... a coherent argument.

> rNPV
> From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
> In finance, rNPV (risk-adjusted net present value) or eNPV (expected NPV) is a method to value risky future cash flows. rNPV modifies the standard NPV calculation of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis by adjusting (multiplying) each cash flow by the estimated probability that it occurs (the estimated success rate). In the language of probability theory, the rNPV is the expected value.

> rNPV is the standard valuation method in the drug development industry, where sufficient data exists to estimate success rates for all R&D phases.[1]

> A similar technique is used in the probability model of credit default swap (CDS) valuation, but in other financial contexts, risk is incorporated by adding a risk premium percentage to the discount rate.

ya the only problem being that cryptocurrency is in no way a legal contract guaranteeing any future rights or privileges...

You'd have to be retarded no to buy BTC after it pops. I want a crash like never seen before. I want a crash so big the global suicide rate goes up a couple points.

Very fascinating, thanks user!

anybody seriously paying attention that hasn't got that one figured out yet might take a while

But there already is consensus that crypto assets will be used to tokenize real-world economy. It's in documents from the fucking Davos World Economic Forum.

The only question is which coins will be used to tokenize which assets.

the true value is in the 10's of Trillions as an industry
We are at the 500billion Mark now... we have a LONG way to go before we hit the Top

That second paragraph is exactly what I find extremely difficult. I think the market will continue to grow for a while, and I /think/ I‘m invested in projects with good fundamentals. Once I reach my target, do I sell it all betting on the bubble or do I only take partial gains and continue to bet that the adoption rate will eventually catch up with the valuation? I struggle to find an answer to this.

Best thread and discussion I‘ve seen in a while, thanks OP.

Not saying it's not possible, but how do you plan to measure its fundamental value when due to the limited use cases in the real world there's an obvious lack of track record? I think so far we've mostly built the market and it's time for finished products to start showing their worth. Some won't be up to the task and they'll die, which is neat. But even knowing there are going to be a lot of bubble cycles I don't understand why you would be worried at this moment unless you believe crypto is some real fucking shit.

There's still at least another year ahead of us before the bubble really pops. I mean bitcoin dropping below 2k, bch and most other shitcoins go to literally 0.

I think at this moment it‘s uncertain whether crypto can be the disruptor many claim it to be. I think so and I hope so, but it wouldn‘t be the first technology like this to fail. It also wouldn‘t be the first to succeed of course.

I think it‘s fine to be confident in crypto but if it‘s the only investment don‘t be too greedy to take profits and diversify. During the recession I plan to scoop up cheap stocks with some of my crypto gains.