Ask a professional trader anything

>1. Where do you see the returns for SP500 for 2018?

nobody can answer this. I'll go with the historic average of roughly 3-5%
>2. What's your portfolio like?
80% passive index
20% random crypto bets

I am pretty young so don't have a lot of money yet

don't really have an opinion on DAX compared to other index funds

I am actually building a bot to trade crypto arbitrage in my free time

Bitcoin and alts will drop much or go upp?

how should I know?

answer me pls

why do you want to know who I work for

so i can send you shit on IB
ok just answer my first question then

Options

I work on a buy side, doing otc fx & ir derivatives for specialized clientele.
Q1: What product do you trade
Q2: Prop or market making?
Q3: Bulge bank, brokerage house or fund?
Q4: Why do you keep your savings in passive funds instead of creating a barbell portfolio?

You said we don't use TA? I though all of traders use it to some extend. Why is that you don't use it? I'm thinking to start crypto trading what do you suggest for a newbie?

how good is your stochastic calculus?

>I am pretty young so don't have a lot of money yet

So you're not a professional.....

>I use charts
Wow, nice subjective medium you have there.

>i want to see a bull run
>i'll just... there we are!

on what?

1. Options
2. Both
3. None of the above
4 I invest in a passive fund because costs are lower and most active funds lose to the market. As mentioned I don’t have a huge amount of money yet so I haven’t put huge thought into my investments. Never heard of a barbell find desu

I don’t use it because there’s no evidence it works and the idea it works is a little stupid.

No, what kind of logic is that? I am a professional but have only been here two years

you thought wrong kiddo

What's it like to LARP like a faggot
How many dicks can you fit directly into your mouth
How many indirectly into your mouth

Finally a LARPer with actual knowledge. The only way to make money with TA is to write a fucking book about it so that financial illiterate faggits buy it. Actually, everything OP says is correct from a theoretical PoW.
t. M.Sc. in Finance

Equity, fx or ir options?
Do you market make for wholesale or individuals?

Barbell is pretty much a lot of weight in the near end (low risk, low tenor - cash deposits, money market - stuff that is robust in case of crash) and a lot of weight in the far end (think long tenor bonds, otm options, or just stuff that has assymetric payoff and has large delta and gamma - so if big movement = massive payoff). There is no mid part in the barbell (aka beta=1 stuff) as when things go bad, passive etfs just drop in value a lot.
In barbell your base amt of capital is protected, while you hunt for alpha with the longer end.

Index options and equity options.

>theoretical

Pls don't post without any pratcical knowledge. TA is bullshit, but citing theoretical finance books is bollocks too. I'm a CFA charterholder and still all that stuff in the books is bollocks, social science pretending to be maths.

isn't this every sell side firm?

Its backed by extensive empirical research. TA does not yield abnormal excess returns over time, look it up, you brainlet. I said theoretical, because there is an actual sound explanation why TA can not beat the market. All past data is already priced in the current market price. This is also why active funds do not beat passive funds over time. Educate yourself.
>If I draw a couple of meme lines, I am surely smarter than the market
Yeah...no, you are not.

You didn't answer my other question: "I'm thinking to start crypto trading what do you suggest for a newbie?" And I'm open to mandatory textbook recommendations for this, I've already have Cryptoassets by Chris Burniske.

I also wrote that TA is bullshit, so read posts first, copy your uni handbooks to sound smart on mongolian goosebreeding forum second.

Basically the only way to beat the market over time is to have superior information relative to the market. For example when I watched Sergey's talk on the super conference in the live stream, I have put a market buy order the second he said the words "Alpha net is live" and I was a minute faster than the rest so I collected 15% return on that trade.
Yeah I see that you have practical experience but in the end anything you do is basically gambling and tricking your customers, backed by your employer's massive capital basis.

OP how sad is your life that you look for validation from anons nearly every single day?
I see this "ask a 24yo professional 200k/yr new york city options trader anything" pretty much everyday. Don't you get bored? And your threads are pretty useless, you never really talk about trading tactics and strategies or anything like that. You just like to gloat about your salary and age but don't even prove it when someone asks you citing the fact that you don't want to dox yourself. Sounds like you just have low self esteem and look for someone to talk to so you make these threads pretending to be someone of importance to boost your ego a bit.

Yes and no. If you think if equities, you think about beating benchmark which is SP500, so pretty much sitting on SPX tracker is a safe bet (as majority of growth is driven by a few outliers - so better buy benchmark than try to bet that your horses will win the race).

The thing is that if you sit on passive trackers and we have bear you lose money at the pace of your index, but you still lose money and you can't be a fund manager, trader, whichever if you have no capital b/c you had a drawdown and your investors withdrew it.

So on paper sitting on an index looks cool but actually you might not survive a bear for reasons you don't see on a graph.

Re: tricking customers - I'm on the buy side so my job is my clients are not tricked by sell side (dealers) as fx and ir derivatives are not transparent, and many products are bespoke, with no central exchange and you structure, bid, trade via mail/phone. Also in fx/ir derivatives a lot of buy side are risk sellers, so actually they want risk of their books, generating alpha is not their concern. Optimizing risk adj cost of capital is.

Yes, why you should research deeeeep into Vechain.

How the fuck do you trade without using TA? Gut feeling? Coin flipping?

from what he said, here it seems he tries to find events that would trigger price changes and keeps his ear to the floor and finger on the trigger.
if you have good info, you can make this work well. when news spreads about big things, profit is determined by a race to action. if you plan out what actions to take based on what events you can do well. however, that is playing it ridiculously safe.
sounds like scalp trading based on news, so while you probably won't lose much, if you aren't making any long term investments, you profit from the "small" moves, and won't get the benefits of say, holding eth since $1.

Thats a sound statement, I completely agree with you. I have nothing to argue about there.

Well yes I do this, but I also hold long term investments that I do not touch unless there is a fundamental change because of a news or a general market development. Say, a competitor of LINK suddenly makes a big leap forward, so I switch to it (inb4 buy mobius sir). I would say I have 50% long-term money and the rest I use for trading news. Of course that is some naive split but it works for me. I managed to get some very decent returns in the last weeks. You have to spend a lot of time on it though to choose decent coins to invest in. You can not be an expert on all coins, but you can focus on some of them and then you can more or less assess whether a current price spike is backed by underlying information justifying the spike or whether it is just because of variation or a random pump. Then you also act on it.
Example: I invested in AMB at 49 cents. It went up to over 70 cents in the last 2 days, without any news or reasons. I decided to sell some of my AMB because I thought there has to be a correction and then it came. I also did that with LINK during some random pumps where it gained and lost 15% on a single day without any news whatsoever.
Waiting for a random moon is like trying to win the lottery. You never know.

I also wouldn't say that the profit is small with trading this way. It depends on how much money you have. When I know with 99% certainty that a price will go up, I can just go all-in on it. And then I have 5-15% more. And then I go all-in on the next news like this. With compounded effects, you can make a lot of money with little risk trades, you just have to do your homework.

Hmm, user has a question.

Vechain is one of my favorite coins, with the rebranding event in 6 days (26th. What would you do?

Also rate my plan for the next 2 months if you don't mind.

26th - ven rebrand, selling half holding half
Acumulate NULS (testenet in march) and ICX (token swap in march), sell when they pump
Acumulate gvt second half of march (alpha in april) and sell half, hold the rest
Acumulate bnb second half of march (token burn in april) and sell when it pumps
Acumulate ven again until mainnet in june

This is the plan I have for now. Would you do it/change something/add something?

what cryptos you holding sir?

Seeing as how you trade derivatives, what is your opinion on ''Fortuna coin''?

Love to hear your opinion, been on the edge for a while.

OP thoughts on the current real estate market?

pls, sir, post a creenshot of one of your charts. pls

*screenshot
sir pls

pls

...

I am not really into VEN, just started looking into it, because I think that it is a good project. To be honest, I can not really elaborate on this without pulling anything out of my ass really. In general, the plan does sound good, user.

If every trader believes that when the price gets to value x it will fall, they will then sell when the price gets to x, and the price will then indeed fall.

This is the basis why TA works, basically by alot of people acting on the rules it dictates, so the market starts acting on those same rules.

Secondly, you can say you don't use TA, but if you truly are a professional trader you already know and apply more TA than 90% of people here, and don't even realize it. For instance half the people here trading don't even know what a candle is.

Thanks, just wanted a more experienced opinion.

If you want to start seeing the potential gains on ven (not sure how profitable the masternodes will be), read on their medium posts and AMAs/partnerships, it's the best start.

>most traders will buy/sell whenever there is edge.
Edge? WTF?

Traps aren't gay if their body and behavior is feminine enough, cock and testicles or not