congratulations on this, seriously
Congratulations on this, seriously
so do I get this right this is just an LSTM model trained on close prices for 300 epochs?
hey man good to see you back. Do you have a blog or a tweeter I can follow? I don't like hoping to randomly run into people on Veeky Forums
Would be useful if you could show this on an actual graph with prices and shit you know
but anyway yes.
b-b-but it's overfitting! a-a-and you can't predict the market!!!
maybe you're right, but my first post on 20th predicted the reversal, and the predictions made on 21, 22, and this one are all consistent with each other.
also the bottom is on 25-26, and on 26th there is ue crypto hearing or something, so it might rebounce there like it did after the sec hearing
no, but i do like shitposting on Veeky Forums
maybe oracuck knows the future, but i surely don't. as long as it predict the major trend, it's enough to make money
i still think it won't actually touch 6k, but 8k is 99% certain
no, but i do like shitposting on Veeky Forums
even if you posted them with a 1 week delay (or whatever) it would be cool to follow the progress
Fair enough, so we going down from here?
Can you show us how this is calculated? Like some console full of numbers or some nerdy shit like that
Its a deep learning neural network. To call this nerdy is the understatement of the decade. This shit is the borg from star trek but it don't need no humans.
btw, this is my yesterday position warosu.org
i've made some comfy games yesterday. i would be at 0.285 if i didn't decide to flip eos, but oh well
if the predictions are completely off i'll just post once a week so you can laugh at me, but if they are right i will probably shitpost and seek attention every day. anyway, i'm just experimenting with money i can afford to lose, so whatever. it's kinda fun
the only code it outputs is the epoch count while training, so nothing interesting to see there
Yeah yeah I just want to see proof that he's indeed doing that and not just drawing random lines
Inconclusive proof would be if he posted future prices for us. like say for the next hour.
lol, what else would you call 10 lines of R (python, matlab, whathave you).
Anyhow, you built an identity model user, congrats. Google "naive predictor", etc. Essentially your model "learned" a simplified ornstein-uhlenbeck process or the relationship Pt = Pt-1 + e. Where e is the stochastic component.
And sure a naive predictor is right every now and then.
For a more telling test I suggest you do mulit-lookahead predictions throughout your backtest. Lets say every 10 hours (if you are on that frequency) make a 4 hour or longer prediction and see if the direction and price match up with historic data.
The market is absolutely predictable btw, its just not that easy. Otherwise every kid out there with access to keras would be very well off.
You are actually retarded, and MLanon is about to make a lot of us a lot of money. Be smart and pay attention. Welcome back. I'm sure you have some great insights about the ongoing dip.
Bit finex just dumped hard.
Did you predict that?
bitfinex 212,071 a few seconds ago 9.75
bitfinex 49,246 a minute ago 9.76
bitfinex 84,565 a minute ago 9.75
don't trust random strangers on internet with your money. i wouldn't.
predicting the next hour is literally impossible imo. i even doubt that big boys like jp morgan can predict actualy close prices. the best thing you can get is the most probable trend for the next couple of days, and that isn't even guaranteed
Essentially your model "learned" a simplified ornstein-uhlenbeck process or the relationship Pt = Pt-1 + e
lol, no, it didn't, stop pulling stuff out of your ass mr smartypants
also lol, i shorted right after running the simulation with yesterday's close, and looks like some whale saw my prediction, kek
You are wrong.
There is only 5% chancer to go under 10k
How the fuck will ML predict massive splurts in volume like this?
I doubt even google could predict that shit
Following closely ML user. This is something I’ve been meaning to get too but I’ve been distracted by working on low latency which is stupid because it’s too competitive but it’s really fun.
You got a repo for this?
lol, no, it didn't
pretty sure it did. What else do you expect it to learn exactly? Some hidden relationship by running a bidirectional lstm lololol? please.
it can't, it's just lucky timing.
and btw, i opened the short 30 minutes ago because i got an entry signal from the accelerator oscillator, which works really good during strong trends, not because the prediction. i use the prediction only to get the trend direction and try catching the top/bottom
what kind of timeline am I looking at with your chart?
does it help you identify the bottom or do you have to do that yourself?
idiots overfits on test set
luk guise perfect correlation!
post code or kys
well, i can count the days to the top bottom. my first prediction got right the top at 12.5k more or less, and now by looking and the latest 3, the bottom should be in 2/3 day.
remember that prediction prices is actually a meme, and i doubt it'll go to 6k again.
what i know is that there will be the ue crypto hearing on 26, and that we are in downtrend. i'm not trying to pick the bottom, i'll enter long once i'm sure the trend is reversed by using ta and memelines.
but for today and probably tomorrow i'll short on each rebounce all the way down
strong support at 9665.40
How'd you do it, user? Resources so that I can attempt this myself (books, repos, etc)? I'm a software dev but I have no machine learning experience.
Bottom is at 0.5 fib. Literally takes 5 seconds to find out.
learn deep learning. it's a lot of stuff so choose an argument and follow tutorials until you understand how everything works
0.5 is 9k, even without the prediction i'm pretty confident that it will test 8k at the very least (which is 0.658 or something)
Let us know when the bottom is close, we can all make it together.
probably right before the ue crypto hearing, or maybe at some specific price like 8k or 9k, or lower. just don't go long until you're sure about the reversal and you'll make it
anyway, i'm going to sleep.
i'll shitpost some more tomorrow if the price will keep dumping, lmao
for anybody interested
20 lines of code or so minus all the boilerplate. Fortunately enough blogger is not a retard (same can't be said about OP) and actually understands why hes just building a glorified identity model.
I'm gonna be rich
So we should expect a retest of 6k? Is there an approx day it's predicting it'll happen?
Thanks for the analysis btw, love your threads
Because Crypto is so volatile and everything mostly follows bitcoin, would it not be more reliable to predict altcoins reactions to bitcoins prices with ML?
So it's going below 6k?
bragging about overfitting a few days of training data using the basics of a neural net framework
not using a deep recurrent Q network
Holy fucking brainlet
Thoughts on Martin Armstrong?
His arm is strong.