Veeky Forums, I'm here to give you the reality check you need.
The crypto market is vastly, unsustainably inflated right now. No I'm not some buttcoin reject or salty nocoiner, and I do believe blockchain as a technology has a bright future, but it's time to get real. I'm just gonna muse about some numbers.
Coinmarketcap currently lists around 1500 different coins and tokens. Let's be generous here: Easily 90% of these are completely worthless. As I said, this is being generous.
Go on Cryptopia or any shitcoin peddling exchange of your choice. Pick almost any coin. Odds are it's completely useless, a coin which will never be adopted, is simply a me-too cashgrab or a take on an already existing and relevant coin which doesn't do things meaningfully different or better enough to exist. Almost all these coins have purely speculative value: 99% of buyers only get them because they expect an increase in value, not because of the use case. I hate this boomer favorite comparison but seriously, these coins are Beanie Babies.
The realistic value of all these coins is flat 0. Nothing, nada. They don't have a niche outside of speculation.
So only 10% of all coins, or 150, have any value. The current total marketcap of crypto is $420 billion. If we average it out, this means each useful coin has a market cap of $2.8 billion. With a b. Does this seem realistic to you? How many even have a testnet out, let alone a mainnet or a fully implemented product?
There's little to nothing other than hope. Hope that somehow these insanely inflated marketcaps will be justified. But for how many? Literally every single coin would have to be a rousing success and be used enthusiastically to justify even the current overall marketcap. Does that sound even remotely realistic to you?
It's time to wake up. Even under current circumstances, let alone in December, crypto is vastly inflated. Invest accordingly and don't come crying when your low mcap moonshot shitcoin goes tits up this year.
Pretty much this. Hopefully there is some market consolidation this year and we start seeing good projects suck value out of shitcoins.
Mason Martinez
I think most anons understand this, but personally, I HAVE LITERALLY SEEN THIS EXACT FUCKING POST EVERY DAY FOR 3 FUCKING YEARS.
I don't care if I lose what I have invested right now, however had I listened to this --literally exact same-- post 2 years ago I would have no car, and my girlfriend and I would be living in the appt we had in college.
Just saying.
Ethan Parker
I fucking hate niggers like you so much since I guarantee if I sell this shit will go to 15k before I can even react
Jason Jackson
Well of course you'll be late if you get your info from Veeky Forums. Why the hell would I do your thinking for you if I'm not gonna profit first?
Anyway put away your Chinese little girl cartoons and Atari home console away for a second and think where this market which you put all your hope and faith in is going. It's not rocket science, it's simple logic. Once you've tied all the steps together and figured out how various coins fit into it, you can make a handsome profit regardless of which direction the market is going in. Apply yourself.
Jeremiah Nelson
>it's another marketcap episode we LITERALLY had two of these topics just today to educate you on that marketcap is merely an indicator and shouldn't be taken at absolute value $ value is highly inflated there is nowhere near that amount of fiat money invested in crypto fucking google search that shit if you can't figure out the logic yourself (which is really common sense)
Alexander Diaz
Anyone has a link of that guy on biz who explained why the marketcap is actually much lower than we think? It wasn't a FUD post, but very informative.
Owen Johnson
If you need a link to that information, then you are clearly a sub human race
Daniel Foster
Yeah yeah, the old double-count. It's known.
Ok then: each viable crypto is $1.4 billion on average, then.
Again: Does that sound realistic?
Xavier Jones
just because the price shouldn't go up doesn't mean it won't
Hudson Anderson
No shit. December happened. But you can fly blind and hope for the best (what most of Veeky Forums is doing) or you can get some perspective and avoid getting JUSTed by gambling.
Justin Bailey
>the marketcap is actually much lower than we think No, the marketcap is correct. People just misinterpret marketcap as meaning the total value held within the market.
Nolan Morales
JPM estimates that the multiplier for fiat>crypto stands at x50 right now. Crypto is not stocks - you sell companies for their market value but you cannot do the same with coins.
Alexander Jones
>If we average it out, this means each useful coin has a market cap of $2.8 billion why the fuck are you averaging the coins lol that's retarded. they already have their own valuations, averaging just muddles the waters
you can't point to all coins as inflated when there's nothing else to compare their value to (unless you think comparing company valuations is the same lol if you think that you just don't get it)
Jack Peterson
there are a lot of shit projects and people will get burned. agree 100%. however, doesn't mean there are legit projects out there and that investing in their tokens/coins is worthwhile.
Samuel Watson
>If we average it out, this means each useful coin has a market cap of ____DONT CARE____
>Crypto is not stocks - you sell companies for their market value but you cannot do the same with coins Basically this. There are multiple factors that are making the marketcap a very deceptive indicator. Being generous, maybe $50-100bn of fiat is in the market right now. That's really nothing for a global emerging tech market. And pic related is the quick napkin math to see that the reverse is even easier to prove (and yes, it's worse than the "double-count"
Logan Cox
no, it paints a false picture, since bitcoin and eth dominate the marketcaps, so averaging them with shittier scamcoins are obviously gonna give them a higher valuation. (although i agree with you valuations are overinflated)
Brandon Scott
that's still 75 good coins, ez
sounds like a great future
Hunter Cruz
i don't have a choice. there's nothing else a poorfag can make money investing on. either it fails and i stay poor or it doesn't. all in
Jaxon Martinez
This If ((they)) wouldn't of fucked us for so long
Michael Ortiz
I'm new to crypto and one fundamental thing I haven't quite figured out yet is which projects actually need coins/tokens and which ones are just bullshitting about needing them
Hunter Reed
You're a fucking brainlet but not an absolute brainlet because what you are saying is 100% correct but fuck man I would never hire you to be my analyst. Your basic stats is fucking horrendous. Also yes, Market Cap is a meme but it gives us a way to compare shit and see the general trend. Consider this brainlet: and im using estimates here (iPhone math. inb4 hurr android)
Total Market Cap: 420 Bn
BTC Market Cap: 160 Bn Eth Market Cap: 80 Bn Combined: 240 Bn or 57% of the total market cap
The rest of the top 10: 98.5 Bn 23% of the total market cap
The rest: 1509 tokens/coins/etc 54 MM of market cap or 19% of the total. Getting an average of 54 MM of "market cap" per coin. I still believe that's still retarded and needs to die off but FUUUUUCK MANNNN. Do some better math
Robert Long
The rest: 1509 Tokens should be 81.5 MM not 54MM
Blake Morris
People have different agendas, remember that folks. I would make a post like this if I put my buy order of BTC at 9200 and expecting people to sell in my hands. Always have your own opinion and beliefs
Anthony Kelly
>The rest: 1509 Tokens should be 81.5 MM not 54MM Checked, and good point. I didn't even bother responding to that point. So now if you combine the fact that those tokens didn't get anywhere near to $30-40MM of actual fiat going in to them, it's such a poor argument to use them as a scapegoat to say that crypto as a whole is unsustainably inflated.
Anthony Diaz
Yes, as a whole it's not that inflated but I still believe the vast majority of alt coins will slowly bleed out. Institutions will not be buying the bags off of regular people instead the coins with no use will slowly bleed out
Jackson Cooper
When I was a kid an I had an idea I would write it in a notebook. Sometimes it would take years to find out it was stupid and obvious. Nowadays kids can find out how banal their thoughts are in seconds! Isnt technologg wonderful?
Gabriel Sanchez
Yea, maybe being a little too aggressive on those numbers. But yea, I don't think it's a good idea to be investing in projects that don't at least look like a half-decent venture-backed startup. I'd think: would institutions invest in this? If not, it's a swing-trade at best
Joseph Jenkins
You can't time the market. Especially a speculative one. If you're scared, get your initial investment out and a bit extra to buy the dip. Besides, I don't buy shitcoins. STEEM, FCT, ETH, BTC, maybe LINK, NEO, STRAT
Camden Young
There's also the ticking time bomb of token economy which every utility token has. You barely hear that term on Veeky Forums but odds are even perfectly solid tokens hitting all development and deployment milestones will get roughly fucked up the ass for a variety of possible reasons
1. Planned token economy wildly optimistic, doesn't match actual use-case demand 2. Token craters because the team blew their load early and released too many tokens into circulation too soon, allowing speculators to capture and strangle it 3. Use case volume might be far smaller than speculation volume, in which case volatility makes adoption infeasible
Not many realize this but the moment the shit really hits the fan will be after alt-fiat pairings are common and when projects start being implemented for their intended use case. That's when the chips are down and when people will see what their tokens are really worth. Even completely solid projects might get massacred once it starts.
James Cooper
>Not many realize this but the moment the shit really hits the fan will be after alt-fiat pairings are common and when projects start being implemented for their intended use case. I would say it would have the opposite effect. Although your points should be taken very seriously; and some projects will get hit hard. But I think for the average promising project, not as much fiat has actually gone into them, and an alt/fiat pair will only benefit them, from a speculative perspective. From an actual use-case perspective, alt/fiat pairs would probably allow some projects to sky-rocket once their use-case and network goes into fullswing
James Turner
Fuck off boomer. Sage
Austin Lee
What's your estimation for alt/fiat to become a force? I know there's a few exchanges talking about it
