"TA doesn't predict" - then why are you using it?

Every TA fag lately. Stop being a pussy and stand by it.

> TA doesn't predict anything
> All it does is pred-.. um, I mean, ...narrow down the possibilities and let you assign probabilities to them
> For example you can pred-... ah, I mean, you can ANALYSE and find good entry points based on what the price is likely to do at those levels.

So... you're trying to predict what the price will do at certain times/levels, right?

> NO! A common misconception. It is called Technical Analysis, not Technical Prediction ;) ;) ;)

But you are, in actual fact, literally claiming to predict what will happen to the price. I.e. to perform better than chance. Just like a weather forecast predicts tomorrow's weather, not with perfect accuracy but perhaps better than randomly guessing.

> WRONG, we do not predict the future, we merely predict the future and... no, I mean, based on technical indicators we can judge what might happen to the price and...

With a better-than-chance probability?

> TA is not magic, you misunderstand :)

Do you think that TA allows us to predict price movements with a better-than-chance probability?

> We merely analyse.

For what benefit?

> To predi-... to ASSESS... yes, to assess potential price movements and make trades accordingly.

Kill yourself.

> You first

OK

Knowing what your possible risk/reward ratio will be, to trade +EV, using it for the proper risk management nothing more

>Knowing what your possible risk/reward ratio will be, to trade +EV, using it for the proper risk management nothing more

So predicting, predicting and more predicting, right? Go on, use the word "predict", what's the issue with it?

Proper TA is analysis of crowd-psychology.
e.g. when the price breaks through a meme line (resistance, double top, or some meme line made by connecting high points)
a LOT of people will jump in.

Proper TA would be to WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION at such points.
When it breaks through, you jump in ASAP as many other people will do too (creating a temporary pump).
Then sell immediately while it's still going up for a bit of profit.

Well... that's how I do it and I have VERY HIGH success rates.
I don't predict anything, I just know what the crowd will do at "certain points" and I "wait for confirmation", then jump in early and jump out early.

Don't bully TAfags, they don't have to wagecuck and can make all their gains via trading. I wish I could be like them desu

>I have VERY HIGH success rates.
>I don't predict anything
>I just know what the crowd will do


"predict
verb
say or estimate that (a specified thing) will happen in the future or will be a consequence of something."


>I have VERY HIGH success rates.
>I don't predict anything
>I just know what the crowd will do

>I don't predict anything
>I know what the crowd will do

>I have VERY HIGH success rates.

>I don't predict anything
>I don't predict anything
>I don't predict anything
>I don't predict anything
>I just know

Because TA really isn't. It's a strategy to time and enter the market. Here's an analogy so you can understand.

The market is like a battlefield. The battlefield is riddled with mines, bunker encampments, craters created by artillery, barbed wires and trenches. As a commander, you can deduce that going through those areas where the shells have landed and where trenches and mines abound will mean certain death and defeat to you and your troops. Your best bet of action then is to stay away from those areas and flank the enemy. Enter in an area where it is less likely to be entrenched and guarded and you enter an area conducive for you to combat. Of course, the enemy could have relocated, of course the enemy could have decided to outmaneuver you and entrenched somewhere else where you are most likely to flank, cannons and tanks won't fire in the same spot obviously but you know the chances of not going into a death trap will give you a 90% chance to survive so the logical thing to do would be to avoid the area and flank instead. In the case that you are indeed wrong, then you adjust accordingly and prepare.

Same thing with TA OP. Past price action won't totally reflect future ones but you will know for certain that the probability of it going up or down given the trends is high. If your "prediction" fails and price doesn't go according to the information given then you prepare for that as well and adjust accordingly and enter at a price and time that is conducive for you to profit.

I hope this analogy will have served and helped even the smallets of brainlets understand what TA is all about. It's not a crystal ball, it's a series of informed calculations given a set of data to make decisions better.

As user points out, this is what TA is. You don't predict, you strategize and enter accordingly given basic human psychology. I also have a high success rate with this too.

The best analogy I've seen so far. Thanks for the great insight user. To be clear, only time will tell if the bears or the bulls are right in the next 24-48 hours.

Technically there is still that one possibility, that TA actually works for whatever it's supposed to do, and shills and FUDders here use it without even understanding it to prey on people who know even less. But that leaves a question of what is TA useful for in a first place...

Just rename it to Technical Assumptions and you can stop being so fucking mad about it.

So is a battlefield, so is most of life decisions. You go with your day and behave and act accordingly to your environment and society's expectations because doing so would net some result. Basically life is "do X I do good or do Y then I fuck up". Life is a series of making educated decisions and guesses. I don't get what the fuss is all about, you are grasping at straws here.

I hate TA fags on Veeky Forums but you're a retard OP.

"its never going to drop below 10k again"

But market is non-ergodic system, even if patterns in prices repeat the underlying situation can be totally different because of external events and internal state of the system. The potential state space is to big for system to visit enough of them to make statistical learning viable. That is why professionals don't just look at the patterns.

To put it simply: you can see the perfect ascending triangle or other popular pattern and then China bans the crypto 100th time again and bam, pattern does not complete. There will always be many good looking patterns in history that you can point out and say it works, But you are not counting the ones that failed to complete.

> it's a series of informed calculations given a set of data to make decisions better.

Right so it's a means of making predictions about the market, is basically what you're saying?
Just like in your battlefield analogy, where we make predictions based on intel and experience to maximise our chances of success. And how weather forecasters make predictions about the weather, and how all make predictions every day about the future based on past experience.

I'm starting to realise that perhaps you morons literally don't know what the word "predict" means, and that's why you can't use it.

relying on charts for analysis of a dirty stochastic process, known to adjust last (not the other way around). user, please.... At least do yourself a favour and look into signals processing theory if you are an absolute brainlet. Start there. There's a reason why rentech hired the whole speech recognition department from IBM.

I think you're so engrossed with the word "predict" that you fail to look at the overall picture of what we're talking about here. That makes you a brainlet who is grasping and arguing over nothing. If it makes you feel any better, you we can call it "technical assumptions" as one user pointed out since you seem to have an unhealthy and autistic fascination about the word "predict".

>Just like a weather forecast predicts tomorrow's weather, not with perfect accuracy but perhaps better than randomly guessing.
Here's what I do, when I see it's raining softly and there are a lot of clouds I predict the only thing I want to be hodling is an umbrella. But you're right, I can't time the rain, it will eventually be the sunniest day ever and you can hodl your dick in the storm until it grows lambos. I have no trouble if you want to be on the same side of my trades or the opposite.

Say it, say that you use TA as a means of predicting price movement. Why not? What the fuck else is it for? Y'all think it's some kind of trap, but it's not. I just can't understand why you won't say the word "predict", but go into great detail about how it does, very much so, predict price movements.

Even the wiki article on TA has crtl+f 23 mentions of the word "predict". Normal TA discussions happily use the word, it seems to be a /biz localised phenomenon for TA fans to openly claim that TA literally doesn't work for its intended purpose. Wut.

I guess TA works for some people. For me, it doesn't. I find it too arbitrary. There are too many possible conclusions I can arrive at depending on how I draw the lines and what patterns I identify.

What works for me, and probably won't work for most people, are indicators. Indicators are objective. There is no ambiguity, a signal generated by an indicator is always a signal. I also don't make long range predictions. I'm not interested in determining where something is going to be next week. I'm more of a scalper, so I'm in the market only for 5 minutes to 1.5 hours at a time so my predictive capacity only needs to extend that far. Convergence, Convergence, Convergence! If the same indicator is telling you the same thing across the 1m, 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h intervals, there's a high probability that your trade will be a winning one. I'm only looking to make 2%-6% profit on each trade, so I buy in BIG when I do. I still consider support lines when determining stop losses and profit taking but they are only temporary ones relative to my time frames. It works for me. It was my solution after getting washed out so many times when the cryptomarket nosedived. Now, I sleep soundly.

> TA doesn't work for me
> I use TA and it works for me

Anyway, I'm not debating whether or not it works ITT. Just trying to find out why TA fans themselves insist that TA doesn't work, basically. Very /biz.

I am not using the word predicting, I do the predicting with fundementals, potential profit/loss with TA.

Think of a poker player, never knows the outcome but with taking the right risk/reward ratios and proper bankroll managment, he knows he can be profitable in the longrun.

But if you are hating on Elliot waves/precise price predictions, I know where you are coming from.

>Think of a poker player, never knows the outcome but with taking the right risk/reward ratios and proper bankroll managment, he knows he can be profitable in the longrun.

Yea, he makes predictions based on those factors + perhaps what he knows about his opponents.

Does he not?


I'm beginning to see the problem - you guys think that the word "predict" means "know with 100% certainty" - when unfortunately the word carries no such connotation whatsoever. Predicting is a matter of stats and probabilities and likelihoods, potentially with multiple outcomes. It is the perfect word for use with TA.

how do you blog posting idiots tie your shoes every morning when you cant even recognize a shitpost

I'm afraid that even if you would call it forecasting or just estimating the discussion would still go in the same direction.

Poker players look for an edge on opponents just like traders look for an edge on the market, TA is a part of that edge.

What is disliked by people who use TA as a tool for entry/exit decisions are those who say things like "price will do this, then that, and will then hit this arbitrary target". Stuff like the Elliot Wave tends to do this.

I too dislike that.

But, in saying that, if someone has found a method for consistent and accurate prediction of where price will be in the future, and their technique is based mainly on chart reading/patterns, that person is unlikely, and would be wise to not share that technique.

Posts made here, where people draw jagged lines indicating what they think price will do, only serve to feed the misinformation of what TA is helpful with.

the difference being one is based on statistics, probability and, at least partially, gto, the other on absolute brainlet bullshit. you figure out which is which.

TA doesn't work significantly better than chance in predicting the future direction of the price in general, but in some cases it does.

A lot of it has to do with it being a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more people use TA, the more likely they are to buy or sell at a given time. If at some point in time various TA indicators give various conclusions, then some of the TA users will buy and some other will sell, however if at some point most TA indicators give the same conclusion, most TA users will buy (or sell) at around the same time.

Now picture what happens. If the price is for instance somewhat flat with low volume, and TA fags start buying because their indicators say so, then the price will start to rise, then other TA fags will see it as a confirmation of what their indicators said and will start buying too, making the price rise more, inducing a local trend, then normal fags watching the price see it rise suddenly and they FOMO and start buying too, and retrospectively the TA fags say "see! my TA predicted it! told ya!"

Sometimes TA indicators are conditional, "if price breaks resistance X it will go up to Y otherwise it will go down to Z", so TA fags will be on the sidelines waiting to buy if the price goes above X or sell if the price doesn't break X, inducing a local trend which snowballs into something bigger.

So because of the self-fulfilling prophecy and snowball effect, in some situations and at some points in time it is more likely that the price will move hard in a certain direction. Now if at a given point where a lot of TA is saying something will happen, you make a trade and place a stop loss close to it, you know that if the price starts moving in the direction you want TA fags will pile in to push the price in that direction and it is likely the price will move significantly in that direction. That won't always work because at that point some whales or some news may have decided to fuck with the TA fags.

(continued)
But the stop losses ensure that when it doesn't go your way you lose little, and when it goes your way you potentially earn a lot, so over time that can be a winning strategy.

are indicators like the RSI considered TA? I've always been under the impression that TA involves some form of trendline drawing and pattern recognition (flags, pennants, triangles). I guess indicators are TA, but it's not what most people think of when you say TA.

This must be the e most autistic post i read in weeks, the focus on the word predict and disregard for the context is extreme aspie behavior

The heart of TA is assuming you can make decisions based off of past price information. It is the ancestor of Quantitative Finance, which incorporates statistics into analyzing past price information, rather than pattern recognition.

All indicators are calculations made based off of past price data, so they are included under TA. Technical Analysis has been turned into a term of scorn, so many people don't like to think of them like that.

The market right now is proving how useless TA is - nobody saw the mini-moon from EU news hitting the US market. 10k+ and rising. NOBODY predicted this on their TA charts.

Part of it may indeed be autistic semantics, but if we're going there I don't even like talking about probabilities. If we must talk about predictions I would prefer to talk about predictions in risk vs reward, the only thing I know about the price of something legit is it will go up or down
> But to gauge the risk and reward you surely must predict prices and assign probabilities
I want to stay on whatever side of a trade until my predicted risk to reward reward ratio goes to a certain level. The way price moves is something I mostly just try to observe and its trajectory alters my perceptions on what the risk to reward is which is what I try to control and what in the end influences my decisions. I don't know if I explained it very well, but does it make some amount of sense?

Please tell me you're just trolling, please tell me you're not being serious.