Recession thread

Predictions on the next recession. When, why and what severity?

- Unemployment rate is hitting low numbers again. (pic)
- Currently in one of the longest non-recession period recorded.
- Consumer Confidence Index hitting high numbers (next pic)
- Booms and overvaluations all around: student loans (mostly for girls, whose pointless degrees wont cover their debts in 15 years, be fucking sure to not marry into such a debt obligation), vehicle loans, real estate reaching last bubble prices, crypto rally of 2017, stocks high again (third pic), ...
- China starting to fuck up with debt and unsustainable ghost cities real estate development
- Trump starting a "trade war"
- ...?

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Consumer Confidence Index

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Dow Jones

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Something like end of this year probably. Can't see one deciding bubble anywhere, but multiple small ones will do the trick as well. China is fucked and will drag the rest of Asia down. Europe and US will have it easier a bit this time. Once the unemployment starts going up, new money into crypto starts drying up as well and we'll have another big bear market as after GOX. Best time to buy then and hodl.

IDK but the sooner the better
Looking forward to seeing real estate peddlers getting fucked. If we're lucky they won't get bailed out again. I imagine they'll just crawl into cardboard boxes and die like the dumb cattle they are

we hit a really big one in 2008, and the recovery has been slow

I am not predicting WHEN, but I can tell you it's not in the next 18 months

if it was going to happen in the next 18 months (predictably) then the yield curve would invert - instead, it is steepening

This means that the bond markets expect TWO YEARS of good economy and quantitative tightening

if before two years they expected a recession to come, then the two year bond would be more expensive than the ten year - which is not the case

you also want manufacturing PMI

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If oil price doesn't spike soon, then Russia will also be not prepared for the economic downturn.

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Then you should definitely buy bond options, you'll be a millionaire if you can predict end of the year better than the bond market can

here's the yield curve, we're at 2005 levels - and even after the yield curve inverts you only lose the opportunity to buy cheap bonds - you still have the opportunity to get OUT of the stock market

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This - there are so many smug fuckers with 1-2 properties thinking they are muh rich investor but in reality they're leveraged to the walls living pay check to pay check. As soon as interest rates rise they're all In trouble. Banks will be blamed but they'll get bailed out, again, and the whole rinse and repeat starts over.

Weren't the china ghost cities finally being settled? I thought that the real problem was they decided to lie about country growth stats again and got caught because the numbers literary just didn't add up? This together with the other emerging markets like russia not emerging like they supposed to is starting to get noticed by investors...

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this board has become voodoo general
OP is a faggot

>unemployment as a metric of recession

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Low unemployment signals a good economic situation and as economic cycles go: a very good economic situation often quickly ends in overheating and a pullback (recession). Doesn't have to be a big financial crisis like the last one.

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>niggers being unemployed means the world is falling apart

I don't understand what are you not getting? Of course people start getting laid off (unemployment rises) during a recession
Check the graph, the grey periods are recession periods and unemployment rises during these. Just before the periods unemployment is low == even low education nigs getting jobs.

>Implying the markets are rational
If everything goes to plan there won't be a *crash*.

The equity and housing bubbles seem way overextended. Government and personal debt are at record highs. Interest rates can't be lowered before going into the negatives. Whenever it's gonna hit, it's gonna be a big one. I'm not sure if fiat is at risk of devaluing, but it could also be a possibility.

Now, this has been happily going on for quite some time. Low rates and QE money kept things chugging along. But now the fed is signaling a turnaround and there's some signs of political tension like Trump's tariff idiocy and Putin flexing his muscles. My guess is we have a year or two left tops.

Economists can always find ways to rationalise saying this time will be different. Fact is, a recession is overdue.

How long into a recession is the optimal time before beginning to re-invest again? In other words, at what point will the trough hit the lowest point and how will I know?

For once I finally have a bunch of liquid cash that I'm keeping on hand for the crash.

Bonus Question - Will crypto be completely wiped out during the next American recession? I imagine the first thing people are going to do is panic and pull all their cash out of crypto - alts for sure anyway.

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Yep, 10 years since the last one. There's not been one boom over the last 100 years that lasted period that lasted more than 10 years. If that isn't a reliable indicator I don't know what is.

ignore the wording, I'm tired

Winter is coming

I don't think low rates have a lot to do with popping of bubbles. It's the fact that they're being raised that matters. So after they're raised loans start becoming harder to come by and the economy start faltering. And when investors see that they start pulling out. So it doesn't matter if they're low, it matters that the rates were even lower just a while back.

It's tough to compare decade by decade, as this chart does, without taking into account the "labor force dropouts," which exist in significant numbers and which are excluded from the data in your chart.

There has never been a 120 month period in the U.S. without a recession. 120 months is up in 2019. Do the math.

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Likely war is on the horizon. Bubbles seem to be everywhere. There doesn't seem to be a reasonable way out.

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The Republicans and Democrats want to repeal the law that has prevented another recession so once they do that then you will get it

>Will crypto be completely wiped out during the next American recession?
Possibly but also consider that investors might want to diversify out of the stock market, by buying into crypto. Also consider that a loss of faith in established banking might push wider adoption of cryptocurrencies.

They're being raised because the central banks have their backs against the wall - they can't really lower rates much more unless they quickly get them up. But at the same time a dramatic increase in rates would basically be fatal to all the existing asset bubbles. It's a crazy situation

Yea, you can't drop rates below zero unless you want to pay banks to hold money haha. I suppose if they raise them slowly enough they can avoid popping. But the conspiracy theorist in me says they'll just pop it anyway to make their friend even richer and as a side bonus they get to sink Drumpf.

It really is a unique situation. No idea what is going to happen with the rates, if a recession were to come soon. Too bad they can't go into negative values, lmao.

6-18 months, debt backed bubbles everywhere, worse than you can possibly imagine

right now

Yep, if you go look at the history of rates, we've never been here before. It's a pretty clear liquidity trap if you ask me. They have actually tried negative rates in a few European countries, but long-term that's just retarded and not an escape. I'm guessing cash is the safest bet in anticipation of a crash but you should definitely stay alert and be ready to spread out.

Government debts are high all across the board, but household debt does not seem to be rising...
Was I wrong about student loans being a significant factor here?

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Seeing how they're govt backed, they're definitely a factor. But entitlements I'd say are worse. Govt spending in general needs to go down.

I'd prefer a better value anchor. Cash is basically paper backed by the economy. So if the economy goes to shit, so does the paper. Not a gold bug by any means, but I'd go with metals or something like that. Not going all in on gold, but hedging against a crash with it seems smart.

Is it worth it to buy 'Gold Bonds' over physical gold? Seems like it would be more fluid, but the idea of buying paper as representative for gold feels like I'm Jewing myself.

Where and when and why did it originate?
lack of trust of banks.
you do the math.

You should be fine with the bond unless you're expecting an apocalypse. And I think the physical gold is also taxed in some countries, so depending on where you live it might be better to go with them.