How are the probability calculations for the american presidential election made?
It obviously cannot be calculated theoretically and it also cannot be calculated experimentally (i think), because it's a single experiment that has never happened and that will never happen again.
I'm a Statistics undergrad and i'm reaasonably fascinated about how these probabilities are calculated.
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That lists the factors which are used and the general principles of how they're used, but not the specifics.
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>It obviously cannot be calculated theoretically
I hope your first semester at college is going well. It's good that you're asking questions, man. You will be much better off when you realize it's actually quicker and more reliable to research these things than ask them on Veeky Forums.
I'm teasing you about your first semester because holy shit man, obviously it's calculated 'theoretically'.
>calculated 'theoretically'.
When republicans and democrats choose their presidential candidate, do you think they "calculate" anything or just pick the one who has the greasiest palms?
Seriously, even if the general election isn't rigged, everything else up to that point is rigged. That's how we ended up with 2 nutjobs that NOBODY feels good voting for.
the DNC was verifiably rigged, but the RNC was not and the general election almost assuredly will not be.
> but the RNC was not
Trumptards everyone
it's common knowledge, and certainly not a secret, that corporations whose operations are on such a scale that it is economically advantageous to donate sizable sums of money to a campaign in return for favor from said candidate on relevant policy issues, will in fact do so.
It's also common knowledge that humans are greatly affected by marketing campaigns - which is why there is so much money put into it.
I could go on and on, but hopefully you get my point. The elections are part of capitalist country and are not removed from that economic system, and that is the sense in which they are "rigged". The media isn't "rigging" the election against Donald Trump, it's just that most people publishing their articles think he's a shitty candidate and express their opinion. That isn't "rigging" the election. Nobody is rigging the polls, for fucks sake. Most polls done on any topic, not just presidential polls, are on questionable grounds.
Everybody in the educated world knows how money influences elections and policy, don't act like it's some revelation your amazing brain came up with, you're just an edgy teenager.
We ended up with two candidates that nobody likes because (for Hillary) in most cases the only way to succeed in our political system and get to the point where you are a viable presidential candidate requires being a soulless hack, and because (for Trump) people are so easily swayed by advertisements and blatant lies and appeals to emotions and think that just because the current establishment sucks that option b is by default better: but guess what, option b is Donald Trump, you idiots.
>It obviously cannot be calculated theoretically and it also cannot be calculated experimentally (i think), because it's a single experiment that has never happened and that will never happen again.
What? In statistics you don't do empirical experiments by replicating an event. You instead take a representative sample and find the distribution. It should be obvious to anyone with half a brain that the probability results for elections are based on polls in each state. A sophisticated approach would be to count votes based on the polled individual's likelihood of voting. Then you can tell the probability of who is going to win each state and by how much. This then tells you the expected amount of electoral votes, and the probability that one will get enough to win. So it's based on both experiment, aka empirical data, and theory.
The election is rigged.
Read Wikileaks and watch Project Veritas.
The globalist establishment will not allow a random fuck up their plans of a one world government.
Trump and the American people want constitutional rights. The US constitution does not allow globalism so the elite are destroying it.
1st year arts students larping as graduates of physics on Veeky Forums will stick their head in the sand.