Election Probability

How are the probability calculations for the american presidential election made?

It obviously cannot be calculated theoretically and it also cannot be calculated experimentally (i think), because it's a single experiment that has never happened and that will never happen again.

I'm a Statistics undergrad and i'm reaasonably fascinated about how these probabilities are calculated.

Other urls found in this thread:

fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/
mobile.twitter.com/fischbein
google.ca/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/KotakuInAction/comments/58x858/why_is_Veeky
8ch.pl/pol/res/23391.html
encyclopediadramatica.se/index.php?title=Benjamin_Fischbein&diff=945816&oldid=prev
superduck.rocks/post-87430/fyi-posting-the-words-benjamin-fischbein-on-Veeky
mostdamagingwikileaks.com
breitbart.com/texas/2016/10/25/texas-county-switches-paper-ballots-software-glitch/
inquisitr.com/3642366/early-voters-in-texas-say-their-votes-were-changed-from-trump-to-clinton-by-voting-machines/
rightwingnews.com/top-news/texas-officials-execute-emergency-protocol-remove-electronic-voting-machines/
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/

That lists the factors which are used and the general principles of how they're used, but not the specifics.

...

>It obviously cannot be calculated theoretically

I hope your first semester at college is going well. It's good that you're asking questions, man. You will be much better off when you realize it's actually quicker and more reliable to research these things than ask them on Veeky Forums.

I'm teasing you about your first semester because holy shit man, obviously it's calculated 'theoretically'.

>calculated 'theoretically'.

When republicans and democrats choose their presidential candidate, do you think they "calculate" anything or just pick the one who has the greasiest palms?
Seriously, even if the general election isn't rigged, everything else up to that point is rigged. That's how we ended up with 2 nutjobs that NOBODY feels good voting for.

the DNC was verifiably rigged, but the RNC was not and the general election almost assuredly will not be.

> but the RNC was not
Trumptards everyone

it's common knowledge, and certainly not a secret, that corporations whose operations are on such a scale that it is economically advantageous to donate sizable sums of money to a campaign in return for favor from said candidate on relevant policy issues, will in fact do so.

It's also common knowledge that humans are greatly affected by marketing campaigns - which is why there is so much money put into it.

I could go on and on, but hopefully you get my point. The elections are part of capitalist country and are not removed from that economic system, and that is the sense in which they are "rigged". The media isn't "rigging" the election against Donald Trump, it's just that most people publishing their articles think he's a shitty candidate and express their opinion. That isn't "rigging" the election. Nobody is rigging the polls, for fucks sake. Most polls done on any topic, not just presidential polls, are on questionable grounds.

Everybody in the educated world knows how money influences elections and policy, don't act like it's some revelation your amazing brain came up with, you're just an edgy teenager.

We ended up with two candidates that nobody likes because (for Hillary) in most cases the only way to succeed in our political system and get to the point where you are a viable presidential candidate requires being a soulless hack, and because (for Trump) people are so easily swayed by advertisements and blatant lies and appeals to emotions and think that just because the current establishment sucks that option b is by default better: but guess what, option b is Donald Trump, you idiots.

>It obviously cannot be calculated theoretically and it also cannot be calculated experimentally (i think), because it's a single experiment that has never happened and that will never happen again.
What? In statistics you don't do empirical experiments by replicating an event. You instead take a representative sample and find the distribution. It should be obvious to anyone with half a brain that the probability results for elections are based on polls in each state. A sophisticated approach would be to count votes based on the polled individual's likelihood of voting. Then you can tell the probability of who is going to win each state and by how much. This then tells you the expected amount of electoral votes, and the probability that one will get enough to win. So it's based on both experiment, aka empirical data, and theory.

The election is rigged.
Read Wikileaks and watch Project Veritas.
The globalist establishment will not allow a random fuck up their plans of a one world government.
Trump and the American people want constitutional rights. The US constitution does not allow globalism so the elite are destroying it.
1st year arts students larping as graduates of physics on Veeky Forums will stick their head in the sand.

Every election they ask me who is going to win, and every 4 years I tell them.

Not because of who I want to win, but because I can see who is going to win. It's like a curse, actually.

This election will not be run by Trump, as much you all hate to hear this.

You can quote me on that Nov 9th.

you are wasting your time and talent
explaining elementary sampling theory
to a /pol/esmoker

Donald Trump is a bumbling buffoon and Clinton is a skilled criminal, which one would you want robbing your house?

>forgetting to throw the world "sheeple" in there a couple times for good measure.

That's Nate Silver's Secret Sauce recipe and who cares how it's calculated. He's just a pundit playing push-the-needle.

We know the outcome of every single election as they are all rigged. Globalist establishment picks a candidate and they win by changing votes to their preferred candidate on Soros electronic voting machines.
It's depressing people are gullible enough to believe that western nations are democracies.

Kek has blessed Veeky Forums

>picks a candidate and they win by changing votes to their preferred candidate on Soros electronic voting machines.
You think it's determined this late in the game? Why do you think there is an electoral college, and the popular vote actually doesn't mean anything?

Don't be depressed, just focus on things in life that matter.

Nate Silver has burned his reputation this election by becoming a partisan pundit.

The popular vote votes in states. The states electorates aren't divided by popular vote percentage, the winner of popular vote of a state takes all.
Why do you think Texas is removing electronic voting machines right now?
They found out this week they were changing votes to Clinton on them.
Most states are refusing to remove the rigged voting machines so only Texas will have an honest electoral vote winner this election.

Make sure to vote, early voting statistics already indicates a record turnout this year.

he's right, though

Well God bless Texas, then.

God Bless The Lone Star State!

You're implying they're calculated and not made up

This. Electronic machines are easy to rig. Put in a few lines of code to tell machines to redirect 12% of votes for Trump to Clinton and you're set for an easy "win".

THE BUFFOON... I DONT WANT A SKILLED THEIF STEALING MY SHIT, I WANT SOMEONE WHO WILL FUCK UP AND GET CAUGHT...WHAT THE FUCK KIND OF ANALOGY IS THIS?

that's the point he's making, I think you are literally retarded

>mfw unironic Trumptards come into this thread

Hillary has already won, accept it

Daily reminder that all so called prediction are made by people without skin in the game.
Nate Silver was 20 times wrong for every time he was right, but people only remember the right prediction.

Now stop bothering me with such mumbo jumbo and let me flaneur through the streets.

>Trump
>Wants Constitutional rights
What? Has he openly declared that he'll dissolve the DEA, ATF, TSA, and NSA?

*tips tin foil fedora*

Nassim "Squid Ink" Taleb I hope it's really u

>NSA
It's against the constitution to spy on citizens, brainlet.

2012 wants its meme back

""""""""""""""won"""""""""""""""""""
Do you live under a rock? Texas is removing electronic voting machines right now because they found out they're rigged.
The other states are refusing to remove rigged voting machines because you know why.
Read the thread before posting.

Sauce on that story?

No the comparison is retarded, politicians are like parasites, none of them really want to destroy their country no matter how greedy. We have choice between Trump who has been proven to be greedy and a buffoon, and Hillary who has been proven to the corrupt politician archetype. Trump can be assumed not to want to crash entire thing and probably has enough egoism to push shit for his sake, the bad thing is that evev with good intentions he may crash things. Hillary will try to swindle but generally she won't crash anything.

I'm a huge Hillary supporter, and every one of my friends and neighbors support her.

You can't say no one likes Her when some people obviously do.

It's false. Texas is run by republicans anyway, if anything they're trying to suppress votes (and losing)

>robbers want to destroy the house they rob

also if you think Trump is going to be able to "crash" anything, you're retarded. it'll be a shitty 4 years but the president isn't a dictator (yet) and basically the rest of the government and congress will keep him in check and make sure nothing absolutely ridiculous happens. hillary on the other hand has the political advantage to destory her opposition and/or propagandize the general public into agreeing with her insane actions and can actually accomplish the terrible warmongering deeds we know she has in mind

yeah, lots of people I know support hillary, and they're all retarded millennials who buy into her propaganda and post shit on facebook like "remember le 1933!!! we cannot let hitler happen agen!!!!"

>Her
why the caps, is she a fucking god now or something?

Mistake, but I'm keeping it since it triggers your jimmies friend.
:^)
>Hilary will invade any country

As opposed to Drumph, who wants to bomb Iranian ships?

Being firmer on Russia is a good thing, Putin has gone too far recently, and hopefully the Iron Lady can reel him in.

>yeah, lots of people I know support hillary, and they're all retarded millennials who buy into her propaganda and post shit on facebook like "remember le 1933!!! we cannot let hitler happen agen!!!!"

Why not? Some people value American Democracy.

Are you aware of how corrupt she is?

yeah

There really isn't evidence of corruption outside of Trump echo chambers.

The fact is that she isn't corrrupt, but due to Republican prosecution of her, she's gained the smell of corruption from and towards the ill-informed.

It's a meme by this point, and I don't see any evidence that isn't straight up doctored or made up ( like that Donald Duck is stalking me video)

The right has an insane hatred of The C word.

>Drumph
>literally compares trump to hitler
>literally believes hillary is not corrupt
as, so you confirmed my suspicion that you are

Hillary is not desirable but Trumptards overstate how "corrupt" she is.

Hillary will lead to increased disorder, therefore it is favourable that she wins. Baby's first thermodynamics

You are literally like those Forwards from Grandma memes.

>Obama is teh Anti-Christ, he ate the sun!!! Kenyan?

Please elaborate on the nature of the rigging of the RNC, unless you're just a triggered leftist

Wow u type a lot of words but u dont do ne resrch good job guy

Go back to your safe space, it's well known how the r's try to suppress voters and their rights

J'accuse only works if you aren't the guilty one to begin with

Wow, sassy combacks but clearly still hasn't read the podesta emails which were so readily suggested and so easily available. If you google "most damaging wikileaks", you'll find reddit's compilation of explainations of the contents of Podesta's emails and links to the emails themselves for proof. I assure you, even a brainlet like yourself will have no trouble reading the entire page in 5 minutes and the true nature of the poll rigging should become clear to you. Hint for severe brainlets: keep an eye out for the magic word: "oversampling"

He didn't compare him to Hitler once.

Please keep your political opinions and poor reading comprehension to

>using the brainlet meme
>not knowing what oversampling is
>wasting his life investigating emails for conspiracy theories and posting on /pol/
sad!

It's "well known" that I fucked you're mom

Are you literally ctr?

some /pol/ links to catholics4trump and motherjones

>Hillary isn't desirable.

Who isn't she desirable to? I voted for her in 2008 at the caucus and the primary and I was bummed when Obama lost.
>the emails in which a rosetta recipe was the biggest deal

nice projection

>"ur le pol because u dont agree with me"

This is the lowest quality bait I have seen in all my years if you are not an actual paid shill. I encourage the lurkers in this thread to go read the podesta emails (or just a highlight reel). I assure you there is plenty of blunt and frank talk of poll rigging, pay for play, and worse. Anyone who tries to tell you the most incriminating email is about pasta is eitherthe most butthurt brainlet of all time and never read any of them, a paid shill, or they're having a laugh at your expense. Normally I like to watch newfags get trolled but this is an important issue to me.

If any bluepilled brainlet itt thinks there's no rigging of polls and media, I'd like to draw your attention to a shady group called correct the record. Paid shills who may be itt right now. I challenge disbelievers to post the name of the director of correct the record, Benjamin F s h e n and enjoy the ban that the tentacles of the Hilary campaign have wormed all the way into Veeky Forums. If you reply to this post without naming him you are a shill.

Man are you in grade 8 or what?
Drumph? Do you like John Oliver faggot?
"muh Russia has gone too far" I am literally triggered by your willful ignorance. You are everything wrong with this board and America you uniformed brainwashed opinion spouter

>Accused me of being an edgy teen first

I've been voting since 1964 and I'm a political junkie. Go back to /pol/ and lick your """"God emperors""" stinky loser feet.
>People having different opinions from me is bait.

Grow the fuck up son and smell the liliacs.
>shill

Lol, it surprises me that you really can't grasp the fact that a lot of people wouldn't like a retarded racist sexist serial molester with Alzheimer's to represent our country.

Hillary is the best choice in America, not voting for her is enabling and abbeting a traitor to our republic.
>double posting

I'm sorry for ruining your safe space and triggering you.

I can't find any links to this guy at all on the internet, is it exactly how you spelled it without the spaces?
I'm willing to donate my ip to science

>people disagreeing with my ""opinions""" hurt me so much that I want to lock them up for using their first amendment rights.

And you wonder why they call you fascists

mobile.twitter.com/fischbein

>not voting for her is enabling and abbeting a traitor to our republic
...words fail me

I notice you didn't post his name, care to offer an explaination for that, faggot?

Correct the record only exists on Twitter/Facebook. It's amusing that you think everyone has to be paid to argue against your ill informed """opinions"""

>names are magical according to the retards
Fishbein, fishbein, fishbein.


Will he jump out of the window at me?

>HE WAS PAID TO DISAGREE WITH ME
Fuck off back to your echo chamber.

>only exists on twitter and facebook

Now I know you're a shill because a retard would have already stopped posting and a troll would be more creative. If CTR only exists on facebook then why are you quivering in your diapers at CRT HQ at the realization that I owned the fuck out of you by challening you to post his name?

If you can post his name and not get banned, you'll show everyone the big bad Trump supporter was wrong, so why don't you just post bnjmn fschbn's name you low energy faggot shill?

Post his first and last name ya dingus

I said either that or it's low quality bait, but I think we're beyond the point where that could ever be in question you insufferable shitposter

I'm sitting at home and I don't know if this is some sick fetish of yours. You seem so fucking crazy though lmao, "I'm too scared to say someone's name"
I don't get how some people are so dense about politics.

I am Benjamin Fischbein I have been summoned from the depths

Are you unable to read, do you think that deliberately misreading and misrepresenting my post will make me butthurt and you will win, or do you think nobody will follow your little arrows and read the post for themselves? Clearly I was mocking your willful ignorance while providing a key word that even the laziest lurker could ctrl+f and bring themselves up to speed on the matter in time for the next retarded shitpost. If you legitimately thought I was referring to the magical Harry Potter power of the word OVERSAMPLING in the PODESTA EMAILS then you have aome hardcore autism my friend.

0/10 arguing
7/10 thread derailing

did it work

Idk what kind of special characters you had to pull off for that one or if the ban is already over but ctr is real alright

google.ca/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/KotakuInAction/comments/58x858/why_is_Veeky Forums_banning_anyone_that_mentions_ben/

8ch.pl/pol/res/23391.html

encyclopediadramatica.se/index.php?title=Benjamin_Fischbein&diff=945816&oldid=prev

Say his name then...

Hail master, your servants approach.
>I'm using big words I can't understand because that's what the smart liberals seem to do

>Benjamin Fischbein

Benjamin Fischbein

Now you say it retard.

>He's eating from his own shit

Why not cite Brietbart too

maybe they cancelled it when the word got out?

I pussied out and just used my phone, I don't know if that affected it somehow

Which of those words are even big and on what grounds do you base your claim that I don't understand their meaning?

I was banned two days ago for saying it on my computer but works fine on my phone now

yeah they probably recalled it once word got out

Have some more citations, my angered friend


superduck.rocks/post-87430/fyi-posting-the-words-benjamin-fischbein-on-Veeky Forums-gets-you-a-14-day-ban

Please keep denying it! Keep claiming that CTR only exists on facebook and Twitter! You couldn't be more instrumental to my cause!

Proof of rigged polls for any lazy lurkers who tldr'd this thread

mostdamagingwikileaks.com

>muh Jews

/pol/

Just did it m8. Reality has a liberal bias again.
I'm sure trump hates riggers. We all know what a racist like him wants to do to riggers

I think this shill is broken, someone call Soros

Any actually sane person who doesnt like Trump hates hillary too.
Hope the pay is good though.

I put a lot of stock in polls and prediction markets until after Brexit. Apparently, the prediction markets were wrong right up until the votes started coming in.

I wish I had a US citizenship just to vote for trump.

No sane person wants to see hillary as president.

Better Soros than Koch, at least he knows how to party
>Liberals are always condescending to me, it must not be because of my wrong views or their inclusiveness , their TONE OF VOICE MAKES THEM WIN

Drump has the best people on the case, as always
A ton of russian bots feel the same as you do.

I'm sane and I want Hillary as president.

in b4 no true scotsman

Must be the effect of having a good president like putin, so they can discern another good president.

What the fuck is wrong with you? Are you majoring in humanities?

breitbart.com/texas/2016/10/25/texas-county-switches-paper-ballots-software-glitch/
inquisitr.com/3642366/early-voters-in-texas-say-their-votes-were-changed-from-trump-to-clinton-by-voting-machines/
rightwingnews.com/top-news/texas-officials-execute-emergency-protocol-remove-electronic-voting-machines/

How did it feel when your boss called you "nerd virgins"?

You obviously haven't been to Veeky Forums before your gay insults won't offend anyone

>oh no, someone disagrees with me
>I know, I'll call him kid.

Holy shit this thread.

This is literally why we have /pol/. Why are you on this board?