Doing research in finance

This

Also paranoid about keyloggers

If sold a call and am long vega, what can i do to neutralize my vega position? if ya don't know ya dont know shit about finance

I tried Gekko but not a single strategy was profitable.

obviously not that big

no

i could but none will profit since they are arbing bots and they work worse and worse the more people use them

>What bots you running?
mostly arbing and some for alerts, trading and monthly reporting. for trading because the apis often offers more than the web interface (fillorkill orders, market orders, etc)... depends on the api and the exchange tho

> I haven't been around the poker scene for a while though, and tips?
i gamble with cryptos in margin trading not with casino games sorry

arbitrage

the rest just burns money unless you are selling them for providing liquidity (marketmaking)

>There's decent market markers and arby bots for free
this is pretty stupid. an arb bot thats free does not work since too many will use it. the one with better ping usually wins in that case.

what is ProfitTrailer?

obviously you just take the opposite positions and you are 100% hedged ingoring fees etc

>arbitrage
Obviously it would be silly to ask for concrete pairs and exchanges, but is it cross-exchange arbitrage or intra-exchange arbitrage?

lol

Obviously it would be silly to ask for concrete pairs and exchanges
cant tell you. the bot decides which pairs to trade. its monitoring all possible routes and if an opportunity arises it tries to fill it

>but is it cross-exchange arbitrage or intra-exchange arbitrage?
intra-exchange. its much more reliable since you dont have messy tx times. only barrier is ping, fee level if there are any (mostly based on trailing volume) and how fast the api lets you trade (some have time penalties or limited calls / second)

From my experience intra-exchange arbitrage is extremely competitive. Viable routes might vanish one day.

it is but once you got the volume its pretty smooth

So, what does "professional gambler" mean in your case? You manage odds?

that part wasnt ment to be taken too srs to be honest

afterall professional gambling is kind of contradicting isnt it?

just wanted to say that i also gamble even tho i know that my expected return is < 0. meaning like im a professional in finance but still gamble

I am thinking of doing my own bot for managing portfolio, kind of like market maker for each coin, but that also looks at a portfolio as a whole and rebalances.

Is it doable? I wish to make it kind of command&conquer style, so I can select what to do for each coin (for example HODL, or accumulate or sideways etc..)

Actually it was kind of retarded question, of course it was doable.

is doable*

More legit questions:

Are FFT & Laplace (zTransform) useful for analysing markets?

Would you recommend any good math algos or portfolio algos that are useful?

I have 2 years in higher math edu and 10 years coding xp. I am not a noob but I like to think I am one since I still do fuck ups and get rekt.

what inspired you to write bots, how long have you been running them

Are your bots making you money in this bear market? Do you think the market will ever recover to our previous ATH?

>Are FFT & Laplace (zTransform) useful for analysing markets?
market analysis is not worth it in any form

>Would you recommend any good math algos or portfolio algos that are useful?
no. not worth it to use any besides arbing

>why?
studies have shown that unless you have like 500 billion USD under management (study was done in the US) your capabilities to gather informations are no significant enough to draw any worthwhile conclusions from it. even the opposite is true. those who are uninformed and trade randomly have higher expected returns than people who are a little informed (almost everybody most certainly private people are in that category)

also technical analysis is shown to be completely useless numerous times (mathematical indicators etc are part of that category)

so best advice is to not bother with anything like that and save the time and fees

>Are your bots making you money in this bear market?
depends heavily on my trailing volume but atm no. which isnt a problem tho since its not my money they trade with. its reasearch money to do my research. so all im after are results for that matter

>Do you think the market will ever recover to our previous ATH?
note that my guess is worth as much as anyones. that being said i am a strong believer in blockchain technology an would therefore say yes. i certainly believe that privacy coins, DEX protocol coins and smart contracts in general are yet to grow to their full potential

its a gamble. next step is to see what will happen tomorrow to the stock index prices.
if it goes down even further i believe that people first of all might go back into physical gold / silver but maybe also try to hedge in crypto which for now would probably be btc or eth

Would you rather be fucked in the ass by Indian or suck a nigger off

the alert, trading and reporting bots were just the result of me wanting to have them for myself to makes trading more enjoyable. afterall if you want it to be exactly how you want it you need to do it yourself

the arbing bots started as a hobby but grew into research. so my main goal with them is to log data and write papers on crypto market efficiency etc. its a new field which isnt covered that much in science yet.

in the future i will also code some bots trading based on TA so i can extend my research into that field just for the sake of it. probably will do moving averages, rsi and bollinger since they are very common

> no. not worth it to use any besides arbing

Ok, I know u have more skin in algo game than I do, but I have hard time believing arb-ing is better than market making in long term (especially if you trade illiquid shitcoins that are volatile AF).

But arbitrage being much more risk free, I believe this 100% (since market maker can get dumped on heavily).

> gather informations
I don't want to gather any worth information (with bots), I just want to read some news and listen to rumors, and act based on that. I think that if there is some crucial info like "X coin hacked or accidentally forked", it's safe to liquidate the position.

> technical analysis useless

What about things like Kalman Filter? Those are quite nice for short trades in my opinion.

But yes, TA can't predict when someone is about
to take big dump on market.

I personally learned TA and some charting, it does help with enter positions and exit positions (reduces your changes of getting rekt), but it's not bullet proof and can also deceive since big market makers fuck with TA.

I am aware of the "random players making more", we can see some crypto funds outperforming markets. Ignoring news and information can be great way to reduce stress and have "i dont give a fuck" attitude.

>Ok, I know u have more skin in algo game than I do, but I have hard time believing arb-ing is better than market making in long term
well marketmaking usually does not make you any money. its a service you sell. maybe we have a different understanding of marketmaking

>But arbitrage being much more risk free
real arbing is risk free. thats the definition of arbitrage.

also note that i am not making significant amounts of money with my bots. i most certainly lack the volume to do so (would need atleast 10M / 30 days to live off of it)

its always the same. if you dont have the volume trading is rolling dice. so i dont really bother and just outright buy coins i like and hodl them. maybe i get lucky maybe not. crypto is not my main income. its gamble money. i see it like a fair casino

>What about things like Kalman Filter? Those are quite nice for short trades in my opinion.
i just go with the reasearch that has been done on this topic which says that TA is adding 0 return to your trading. actually its adding negative return since fees etc.

>Ignoring news and information can be great way to reduce stress and have "i dont give a fuck" attitude.
yep

for me personally TA is only a measure to trick people into opening new trading accounts in order for those who advertise this "magic tool" to get pait for each new account they genereate.

if TA would work everyone would be rich beacuse its so easy you could teach a child to do it. and if its that easy. where are all the rich people. also if you win someone else has to lose. who loses if all use TA. its obviously so flawed if you think about it for more than a second

>AMA
Why do you think anyone cares?

i really dont think about if anyone cares or not. im bored and enjoy talking about crypto. thats about it

>depends heavily on my trailing volume but atm no.
I ran an intra-exchange arbitrage bot on one exchange where I found a very profitable direction which left me enough latency to execute trades. It used to work until about February after which all opportunities completely vanished. It stopped executing trades for weeks ever since. I also had one weird day when I lost about $500 in five minutes (i.e. several unprofitable trades on the same pair in a row), I still don't know if it was an order book glitch or some unusual manipulation.

Another risk is if the exchange decides to implement its own, internal arbitrage bot. Which would actually be a very logical step. I would do it.

So the stuff is rather risky IMO

>well marketmaking usually does not make you any money. its a service you sell.
Haven't heard of such services. I know that market making based on complex statistical models actually does bring money, but its implementation is beyond my capabilities. Such bots are definitely not sold online.

>book glitch or some unusual manipulation.
havent had any problem like that

>Another risk is if the exchange decides to implement its own, internal arbitrage bot
i think thats highly illegal. also i know they dont do it on the exchanges i trade since otherwise i wouldn get a single arb position filled

>Haven't heard of such services
usually market making is providing liquidity as a service for which people pay for. of course its in the best interest of the market maker to not lose money so they have to monitor spread and all

>based on complex statistical models
yep thats true as far as im concerned

i once did a freelance project for a market maker and they broke even most of the days while some days make like 50 usd with a vollume of 30k. i know that because i did a program to evaluate their data for financial reporting. when i talked to them they told me their only goal is to not make any significant losses. their cashflow comes from people paying for their service of providing liquidity. the rest is just bonus

maybe that one was an exception but as far is i know thats the common way of market making

>>Are your bots making you money in this bear market?
>depends heavily on my trailing volume but atm no. which isnt a problem tho since its not my money they trade with. its reasearch money to do my research. so all im after are results for that matter

kek..

>intra-exchange arbitrage
Yeah I wouldn't count on that -- you're better off with inter-exchange arb.

>i think thats highly illegal
Why would it be illegal at all? It's literally buying in one market and selling in another. A pretty innocent operation. No manipulation involved, just liquidity making. Some big exchanges might be running them. But most obviously don't bother because they already make a good profit with fees, and leave all this stuff to traders.

>usually market making is providing liquidity as a service for which people pay for.
You mean exchanges? Anyway, pretty strange. Of course, it would make some sense because exchanges definitely make much more with fees, but I imagined it to be more spontaneous. If market making is profitable in stocks, it obviously is in crypto. It's just that not everyone can get into it.

>maybe that one was an exception but as far is i know thats the common way of market making
The way I see it, you as a market maker have two stacks, the coin and the medium of exchange (BTC, ETH, USDT etc), so your task is to increase the second stack while retaining the first stack. I've seen some of their algorithms, they're tough. You really need a math background to get it. But they all come from stock trading, and I haven't heard of a stock exchange that would pay to market makers for liquidity. I guess it's feasible if some crypto exchanges really pay for that stuff. Feasible but weird.

How much you make a year?
How much you need to invest in bots?
How much $ each bot is using and how do you bots react to other bots on your coin of choice?
How much time you need on a avarage to set a bot up?
Do you know and visit serious boards or forums about crypto other than Veeky Forums?

because its insider trading at its finest i guess

It's not really insider trading if the data is public and real time. Third-party traders/bots place their buy and sell orders, and if you instantly find matches and execute them, it benefits everyone. Again, most exchanges don't bother because they're already comfy with their fees.

>How much you make a year?
with gambling its inconsistent as fuck as you could imagine. last year i made ~50k.

with my actual job i get like 200k before taxes

>How much you need to invest in bots?
in terms of money the minimum i need to invest is set by the exchange. mostly its an equivalent of 1 usd or something like that

>How much $ each bot is using and how do you bots react to other bots on your coin of choice?
one has 100 usdt
one has 8k usdt
and the biggest 30k usdt

my bots dont react to other bots also they dont need to. as i said i am arbing. if there is an arb opportunity i try to fill it. thats all. no reason to make it complicated

>How much time you need on a avarage to set a bot up?
man i dunno. depends on the api, the exchange etc. never really logged it. also i adjust alot every now and then so its hard to say

>Do you know and visit serious boards or forums about crypto other than Veeky Forums?
i used to go on various discords but no matter where you go 90% are just plebs doing TA. so you might as well just stay on Veeky Forums. information doesnt really get better/worse.

bitcointalk sometimes has some interesting people but besides that i prefer to get my info offline at panels, lectures, talks with other professors or by reading and discussing papers and news

well it is because first of all not all data the exchange has is public (for example stop loss orders are not shown in order books) and further as the exchange you yourself have no fees to pay so you are having profitable positions before everyone else has which is unfair again.

i mean you are right. insider trading increases efficiency an liquidity but nevertheless is illegal.

>i once did a freelance project for a market maker and they broke even most of the days while some days make like 50 usd with a vollume of 30k. i know that because i did a program to evaluate their data for financial reporting. when i talked to them they told me their only goal is to not make any significant losses. their cashflow comes from people paying for their service of providing liquidity. the rest is just bonus
The other option would be if those people paying for market makers are not exchanges, but rather coin owners. I can't say for sure if it makes sense, though. But some pairs visibly have more market makers than others.

the company i did the freelance work for told me they do it for ripple. who exactly the customer for their service was i dont know

Market making has two different meanings:

1. Market making is just trading strategy, where you profit off the spread. Amount of money in play doesn't matter since it's just strategy. It's not risk free since you can get shat on.

2. Market maker is someone that has big sums of money and moves market (pump and dumps, accumulation, etc..). Everyone else is at mercy of such market maker. And yes, they also use Market Maker strategy (1.), and yes Market Makers (2.) do get hired by quality ICOs and thus those Market Makers (2.) do get insider info.

I once used bot (1.) for market making some coins on bittrex. I profited like 30% in one month, but then one of the coins got hacked (price dumped) and all my profits got erased in seconds.

1 and 2 can occasionally coalesce thanks to high-volume statistical models. 1 is the basic modus operandi, 2 is what might follow if they have enough volume and sophisticated algorithms.

OP, what is your opinion about santiment data mining (datamining crypto slacks, telegrams, etc..) to gather market cycle (euphoria - depression)?

>1 and 2 can occasionally coalesce thanks to high-volume statistical models. 1 is the basic modus operandi, 2 is what might follow if they have enough volume and sophisticated algorithms.

Fully agree

I'm thinking to start trading BTC/USDT or ETH/USDT. What should a beginner retail trader do at first? Why you shat on TA that much?

Petro yuan & USA China trade wars.
What’s the effect on the financial markets and How have you prepared

I'm doing this intra exchange arbitrage and only made it work on 1 exchange. For peanuts, btw, but profitable.
Would love to discuss certain things about this but there is also the fact that you don't want to give away what works.
Any tips on forums or communities where serious folks discuss these things?