Is this another case of statistics challenging intuition, like Monty Hall, or is there merit to the idea that if humanity really reached much further out than this, we shouldn't be here right now?
Carter Catstrophe
Ian Young
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Nathaniel Nelson
Sorry, misspelled the OP trying while trying to phrase my opening question. It should of course read Carter *Catastrophe
Kayden Evans
No, Its Just a graph
Chase Kelly
[math]
\\ \text{Continuous compounding}
\\ \displaystyle P(t)=P_{0} \, e^{rt}
\\ \text{ } P_0 \; \, \text{initial value}
\\ \text{ } r \quad \text{rate of growth}
\\ \text{ } t \quad \text{time}
\\\\
P(t_2) = 2P_0 \Rightarrow 2P_0 = P_{0} \, e^{rt_2} \\
2 = e^{rt_2} \\
e^{ln(2)} = e^{rt_2} \\
ln(2) = rt_2 \\
t_2 = \frac{ln(2)}{r} \approx \frac{70\%}{r\%}
\\
P(t_{10}) = 10P_0 \Rightarrow 10P_0 = P_{0} \, e^{rt_{10}} \\
10 = e^{rt_{10}} \\
e^{ln(10)} = e^{rt_{10}} \\
ln(10) = rt_{10} \\
t_{10} = \frac{ln(10)}{r} \approx \frac{230\%}{r\%}
[/math]
Tyler Brown
Justin Richardson
Snap, well... is antinatalism the answer?
Lincoln Hall
Somebody is going to choose it, either we do or nature does it for us.
Hunter Green
Maybe she is, what with the sperm-count drop. Not sure if that's verifiable or /pol/-science, though.
Jace Wilson
My hypothesis for reduced sperm counts (as well as lower testosterone levels) in developed countries is due to women's birth control increasing the amount of estrogen in the water. Other chemicals like BPA may also have an impact here.
Cameron Ward
No, at some point we just exceed the environment's carrying capacity and the population gradually settles around an equilibrium. Assuming other factors don't intercede first.
Henry Gutierrez
It's called the Christmas island effect ircc. Because it was observed in a population of caribou which crossed an ice bridge to Christmas island and got stranded. There was an abundance of lichen (Caribou fking love lichen) and they ate it all, their population exploded then they (almost) all died.
Ayden Rogers
what if the carrying capacity keeps increasing because the population increases it over the time?
Hudson Reed
>soylent green
Josiah Ramirez
Are you sure the emasculating effects aren’t caused by a natural increase in male estrogen due to rising levels of obesity? It requires less assumptions because fast food is cheap, about a third of adults in the country will become obese, and fat holds estrogen more easily. What are the possible entryways of estrogen into the water system, then? Women’s pee is excreted into the sewers. Even then, what proof do you have that estrogen is present in significant enough amounts to affect men? Have you tested your own tap water yet?
Samuel Rogers
OP here, very interesting stuff regarding future calamities involving population growth, most especially the Al Bartlett, but I'm still unclear.
I thought the Carter Catastrophe in particular dealt more with a statistical thought experiment, the implication of which is that if we are at the small end of the growth potential chart right now, we'd be more likely to find "ourselves" at a point further in the future, near the peak of human growth.
This implies that right now is the peak of human growth. So that if all were hunky-dory, and we had space and energy to expand for eons, our mere existence in this era says that something is going to cut us down, probably soon.
Dylan Perry
Pick your poison
-climate change
-lack of renewable energy
-lack of fresh water
-societal turmoil caused by labor displacement as production becomes more efficient
-national defaults on debt or widespread corruption that leads to famine
Etc
Brayden Watson
I guess you're right. I just thought it be more statisticsy, like a graph paper avalanche.
Lucas Walker
Shifting gears, why do academics or even laymen who understand the implications of the arguments of Bartlett or Garrett Hardin choose to breed?
Even if they feel they are "contributing" by producing offspring with a mate of similar intelligence, I thought that the baby was likely to have an IQ closer to the mean?
Cooper Hill
I think the point is that the wall of "maximum carrying capacity" can come quickly. What happens when you have 9 billion people on the planet and there are a few bad years in a row for food production. Wars and mass famine will come quickly and potentially billions of people will die.
Brody Davis
I vote kick the can down the road. Fuck 'em, future pricks.
Dominic Ward
Closer to the mean of both parents
Alexander Clark
I don't think that many people will die at places that actually matters
Mason Morris
The modern era isn't going to last longer than the next 50 years. The 90s will forever be known as the best years of human civilization.