Transcendence hypothesis > > > > > > > > > > > > fermi paradox

>>/B/

/tv/
/cm/

>/mlp/

...

I take it you've never been to /r9k/

>scoop up cup of water from the ocean
>no whales in the cup
>whales obviously dont exist

whales are too big to fit in your metaphorical cup though, ya dumb frogposter.

>what is allegory

hmm much like the universe is too big to make such broad vague assumptions like us being "the first technologically advanced species"

Except whales have been observed, a better comparison would be a leviathan

yeah, well your still a dumb frogposter.

>new movies are absolutely dogshit garbage
>new games are unoptimized uninspired shallow and badly written
>comics are high on powercreep
>people are ignorant self-centered stuck in virtual worlds and bubbles
>sites are basically 100% propaganda at this point
>most books are simply not fitting to my taste
>only Veeky Forums is still mildly amusing
Besides porn I live in constant despair trying to find a reason to go on living.

I guess the only solution is to focus on self improvement and objective undertakings but it's all so emotionally dull.

>the only solution is to focus on self improvement and objective undertakings
bingo
you discovered the purpose of life my dumb frog-posting friend.

But it's so dull, it may be the correct choice but we as humans don't chose what makes us feel joy or be happy, you cannot force yourself to like something or to stop liking something.

If you, like me, are a sociable or family individual but cannot find individuals in this wretched world that resonate with you, you may even be able to improve yourself and become a better person, but you'll never be happy.

but we just resonated though. as unlikely as it seems, you just a resonate connection. now go forth and be happy.

why doesnt the cup hit a whale then

why are you such a nigger

>there is no paradox if everyone is living in the matrix.
>everyone
That's not gonna work.

>there is no paradox if
>if
There already isn't a paradox.
There are dozens of plausible explanations for the alleged "paradox".
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#Hypothetical_explanations_for_the_paradox

>transcendence hypothesis
OK OP, you do get a gold star for correct use of "hypothesis", instead of calling it a theory.

>So there must be some other explanation for the absense of von Neumann probes.
It's very unlikely we'd notice them even if they were fairly common.
Anyone who builds them would have to realize the "locals" the probes encounter would see them as hostile.
The probes would gather up local resources to harness enough energy to pose a serious threat to any planetary civilization.
And of course the builders wouldn't want the locals to capture one and get their hands on the technology.

Nah, if anybody's building them, they are probably making them fairly stealthy.

Not that it would be hard to hide them from us in particular.
We're still discovering objects hundreds of miles in diameter in the solar system.
What if Haumea is a von Neumann probe?

And lastly, there's no guarantee any probes would stay parked in one system.
Wouldn't it make more sense to keep moving on, even after "reproducing"?

BTW: The rest of your post is just drivel.

>your still a dumb frogposter.
>your

Are you saying I could ride a spaceship composed completely of naked olivia wild into the heart of a quasar? Without leaving the comfort of mom's basement?

yea, if man-faced chicks is your thing, sure.

>manfaced chicks
She only has wide jaws. Rest of her is beautiful >:O

There's 7-billion odd people on earth. Statistically you will find someone that in some way meshes with you. Just gotta start going outside and making friends senpai. All the best things I've ever had in life have come from getting dressed and starting a conversation and being super awkward and forward

You can't count on other people to make you happy.
You have to be happy first, THEN if you're really really lucky you can find someone to be happy with.
t. long-time bachelor, now married

>t. long-time bachelor

uh, transexual long-time bachelor?
never heard of that, but cool, whatever floats yer boat.

There are no signs of spacefaring civilizations because...
- Technological civilizations are rare
- There is no FTL, and interstellar STL exploration is prohibitively expensive (aka no sane group will ever do it)
- Undirected signals will dissolve into noise before reaching anyone
- The lifetime of a technological civilization is very short (our cultures have been around for only a couple thousand years and we still had a couple of close calls with global devastation; add in the fact that the allocation of resources toward space exploration - with no pay-off for the investor - becomes increasingly unlikely as our population and consumption grows. And we've only come as far as we did because two superpowers happened to want to outdo the other)

Prove me wrong.

>A New Empirical Constraint on the Prevalence
of Technological Species in the Universe
A. Frank1 and W.T. Sullivan III2

There's this

and people call /x/ a shit board

>and people call /x/ a shit board
who are these "people"
made up friends of yours?

i go on /x/ and we constantly get called lowest IQ board

>i go on /x/
That is already a diagnosis. I'm sorry.

I went there for 5 minutes to check it out.

I can see why people call it that.

t. cuckhold

I hope you are enjoying those sloppy hundredths

There are only two types of civilizations to consider when you send out von Neumann probes. The kinds of civilizations that bang rocks togethers and the kinds of civilizations that have long since developed every conceivable technology to its perfection.

Unless life is super common (just about every planet) it's not very likely for a probe to arrive at the small window (50-500 years or something) when the locals are at our stage of tech.

Rock bangers can't reverse-engineer shit and can't detect shit. Anyone who can detect and reverse-engineer your probe can already build one just like it. And you can bet your ass that when your probe finds something that isn't banging rocks, that something has already sent a probe to your homeworld as well.

Even if we humans happened to find a probe now in our solar system, it wouldn't change anything in the long run. Maybe we'd get a 50 year leap in technology. That's still nothing compared to the fact that we'd still have to wait probably thousands or millions of years until we make proper contact. (Unless faster than light communication or travel is possible). We would get that tech anyway soon enough.

And it wouldn't make sense for von Neumann probes to move on after reproducing. It would make sense to stay put and reproduce some more while you're at it. And then stay behind to observe any possible changes that might happen.

>interstellar STL exploration is prohibitively expensive
not with self-replicating robots ya dingus

Razor: There aren't any.

u smart like me

The problem is identifying the correct individuals you dingus.

There's no alien you retard.
Thinking that we are observing Humanity is completely stupid, stop saying such nonsense.

that image made me cringe

>thinking the probability of abiogenesis is that low
you do know that the probability of your theory being correct goes into the dumpster when you lower the probability for abiogenesis since there is life on earth.
I am rather sure that any decently habitable planet will sooner or later spawn life.
fermi paradox? Moving through space is really fucking slow and a space empire spanning multiple stars is pretty much impossible. The only ships that reach other stars are problably lone colony ships.

Like I explained in my previous post that you responded to, having a multiverse explains why the probability can be super low and still allow us to exist.

The lower the probability of abiogenesis + intelligence, the further away you statistically need to travel to find other life. If the universe if finite and the only universe, then you might assume that the probability has to be in some ballpark that allows us humans to exist with some realistical probability. But if multiverse exists (as suggested by the fine tuning argument) then the probability for intelligent life can be so low that you'd need to travel to some distant universe in the multiverse to find other life. And you probably can't travel between universes. Therefore it's quite possible we are all alone in this universe and most universes are void of life completely.

The third option is that there are a handful of aliens out there and they will eventually reach us. But what would be the probability of that?

Pic related.

They do tho, mostly too beta to do so I real life however

>SETI has only traveled 60 light years so far
>WHY HAVENT ALIENS COME TO US YETTT!

...

>We're still discovering objects hundreds of miles in diameter in the solar system
Isn't there a planet larger than earth floating around or solar system that we haven't found yet?

You're an idiot.

I do that in social circles all the time for the sake of pushing correct information forward - no other reason.

And people just turn sad and recognize they were wrong.

>throw a huge mine in the ocean
>hold strong onto your ship because there's going to be a huge wave.
>watch dead whales rise up above.

>ike I explained in my previous post that you responded to, having a multiverse explains why the probability can be super low and still allow us to exist.
Not him, but no. No it doesn't.

It just gives a bigger playing field. The probability of any given star that we CAN observe having life around it is identical.

>don't worry guize, I've got the whole universe figured out!
>the jump from stone tools to warp drive is so simple we can discount the possibility of ever encountering a species in between
>oh, and all aliens would naturally agree with what I've figured out
dumbass

>Razor: There aren't any.
Neither Hitchen's Razor nor Occam's would support the notion that we are alone in the universe, or even the galaxy.

Maybe you are a bit stupid so let me spell it out for you.

We humans just spent around 3 million years banging rocks against other rocks. We pretty much started doing higher tech stuff only a few thousand years ago. For only about 50 years have we been able to get into space. Earth is 4.5 billion years old with life maybe a little bit younger than that.

Warp drive, if such thing exists, will be invented in the next few years to few hundred years max. Doesn't even matter the slightest even if it takes 10 000 years.

Had an alien probe arrived in our solar system any time before today, the odds would have been about 0,004 % for it to even find a truly intelligent specfies on the planet (Homo sapiens, only banging rocks together). 99,996 % of the time it would have found max. chimp-level intellect. For 0,000001 % of the time the probe would have found a species capable of space travel.

If there has been around 100 000 000 intelligent species in our galaxy, then the alien probes might have found one species at our technological capacity with sheer luck. Why should anyone give a shit about that one species one way or the other? All those 100 million other species would either be maxed out in tech or banging rocks.

We don't know the probability of intelligent life. We know it's not zero cause we exist. We know it's not 100 % per planet after looking at other planets in our solar system. If we knew there is only 1 universe then we might assume the probability is not super close to zero or we would most likely not exist. But if there is a multiverse then the probability can be essentially zero and we could still exist cause there would be many more planets for the probability to work with.

How can this simple concept be so hard for you to understand?

>we might assume the probability is not super close to zero or we would most likely not exist
Fuck logic.

You're right about the last point but Veeky Forums is not a good place in any way - just go in the open.

>/sci
The IQ of the rock surpasses the image's creator.

Didn't someone create a formula for the likelihood of et life in the universe? And didn't the likelihood increase a lot when we started finding planets around hundreds of stars? What's the calculation for that now?

Well actualy if the multiverse theory proves true the possibility of intelligent life is 100% because of infinite possibilities you will have BOATH infinite intelligent life forms and infinite not

Infinite possibilities means infinite true results

What in the fuck is the transcendence hypothesis?

We haven't found aliens yet because they all become space neets and spend their lives playing videogames, basically.

To be honest that sounds like a great thing + if the aliens got biological immortality + still doing research on the universe and technology.

Also isn't this included in the Fermi Paradox where alien life doesn't want to contact other alien life for:
A) Survival
B) Space NEETs
C) Keep to itself
D) Some form of prime directive.

>Warp drive, if such thing exists, will be invented in the next few years to few hundred years max.
[citation needed]
We *could* be approaching a plateau well short of interstellar travel that lasts for millennia.
You're just pulling shit out of your ass, and you're calling me stupid because I'm not pulling the same shit out of my ass.

Its really ignorant of us to assume life is limited to being humanoid like creatures like humans or other animals. For all we know the complex system of water currents in our oceans constitute a living entity that is also conscious. The interaction of galaxies due to gravitational pull could constitute a living entity for all we know

Is God a physicist or a software engineer?

I called you stupid because you fail to see the big picture. It doesn't really matter how long some warp drive tech will take time. The plateau you talk about would have to be in the order of millions or billions of years, not thousands, to be meaningful. If there are aliens out there, they will have visited us for the first time a billion years ago or a billion years into the future (generally speaking), but it's not at all likely that they will appear in some hyper small window of time when we are doing science. It's a pretty simple probability calculation when you know the age of the galaxy and the related time scales. Pic related.

(Please note that I'm not saying we couldn't cause an invitation using technology at this point, I'm talking about the von Neumann probes that would have been sent regardless of our current technological situation)

I figure that even if there are aliums say pretty close like 100k lightyears away, they need to get to an advanced enough state to send probes or manned shit all the way too us, obviously space is huge so say they send 10 thousand probes over the course of 10 years, and keep trying and trying even with a ridiculous amount of probes the civilization will run out of resources or have a huge war and die out before they get results back.

tl;dr

A civilization can't exist at such an advanced stage long enough to search the entirety of space and find life.

It's called the Drake equation and its coefficients are simply unknown. Which means you can get any result out of the equation based on your specific assumtions about the universe. Meaning at present it's a useless tool.

If there were only a way to mix objective and subjective undertakings fluidly. Maybe a dayplanner? Treat your attention like a child in custody scheduling? Monday Wednesday Friday is Objective, Tuesday Thursday Saturday is Subjective and Sunday is a coin toss. I don't know, just sayin.

Bullocks

4chins is just like real life except if you say horrible shit on here you can't have your reputation ruined. That is, unless everyone posting on Veeky Forums is a bot, but hey what is a human but a complex bot.

You only have to send one probe if it can self-replicate. (von Neumann probes)

If there "is a multiverse" as you say then there are entire universes where every logical combination of possibilities that you've listed exists.

I have no idea what you are referring to with "combinations" that I have listed.

Infinity does not work like that. There are infinite numbers between 1 and 2, none of them being 0, and all of them only exist once. There aren't 2 different 3/2. We could be the only universe with intelligent life, depending on how large the subspace of "Universes with intelligent life possible" in the n dimensional space of all variables that define a universe.

>maybe we would get
maybe the country that captures it would get a 50 year leap in technology and we'd have cold war 3.