Make Money from Machine Learning

Yeah, in fact I think I found out about NumerAI through Kaggle. Though the question of the thread was how to make money from machine learning and I think it is much easier to do that through NumeraI

I thought you were going to start a company on convolutional neural networks to solve some problem and then it will be bought by a big company for hundreds of millions. Guess you just want to gamble.

thanks dad.

ah, right. Yeah, all the Kaggle competition winners are teams. Berkeley's was pretty wizard level too

ML great at interpolation, horrible at extrapolation

You'll find the problem is getting the data. People know for ages how valuable data is and they figured out what kind of data is the most valuable, so they at least started to make it as difficult as possible to get it. There won't be some database online with everything you need. Chances are those just don't exist. So you end up scraping for data with little chance to get enough of it. If you can find larger amounts of data, then you'll quickly find that people already tried what you are about to try.

>There won't be some database online with everything you need. Chances are those just don't exist.
If OP wanted to do this a few years sooner, he could easily buy hundreds of millions of handhistories. The site that offered them has gone down though, but you can probably still get them somewhere or just mine your own.

Sports like football probably wouldn't work, because the teams change nearly every year, and machine learning is slow, so you probably will never enough data before a team make a major change.

Modular machine learning with neural networks is a thing though.

>unless you do something really sophisticated.
adding noise to its decisions is not sophisticated

undergrad wannabe MLfag here. I haven't got much substance to contribute - mostly replying to bump this post

iirc most lucrative sports betting is about predicting the point spread - by how many points does the winning team win? Your objective is to predict the point spread as a function of both teams' individual players' career stats, and put down money when you think the house is wrong.

Why does the horse's career length matter? You don't want to predict the winner as a function of the horses' names, you want to predict it as a function of their performance statistics.

sportsfags tell me that a football team's performance as a function of individual player stats is simpler to approximate than a basketball team's - the latter involves more teamwork, where the former is more additive.

You might want to just try and find some really fucking obscure sports. I remember hearing about a guy who would travel the world looking for obscure kinds of races on which to bet. He'd always use the same exact technique, and would get banned within a few months after cleaning them out, so he'd just find another sport.