Is who wants to be a millionaire just a game of luck?

Is who wants to be a millionaire just a game of luck?

I mean, there's 33.34% chance of being right unless the person happens to know the right answer, and lifelines can only get you so far into the game.

Let's say there are 15 questions with 4 choices each. Let's also say there are 3 lifelines: call-a-friend, 50-50, and ask-the-audience.

For each of the 15 questions, there is only 1 correct answer, and 3 incorrect answers, so immediately your chances are 1/3 = 33.34%. You can use each lifeline once. Using phone-a-friend, let's say gives you a 95% chance the person you call is correct. So 1 question is 95%. Similarly, we can say ask-the-audience gives you a 95% chance. Finally, 50-50 will remove 2 wrong answers, so you have 1 right answer and 1 wrong answer, so you basically know the answer. To recap:

Question 1: 33.34%
Question 2: 33.34%
Question 3: 33.34%
Question 4: 95%

>but more than half the people on the show will lose
That's not true, the probability of winning is 50%. Either you win or you don't.

>Four options
>One is right
>33.34%
>4

Easy, just become a macropolymath and learn everything.

You obviously don't know the game.
You can also decide not to answer, since you might lose money if you're wrong.
Win, lose, quit. So 33.34%

>there's 33.34% chance of being right unless the person happens to know the right answer
>33,34%

dude, you have four options and only one answer is right. That's equal to a 25% chance of being correct.

>Question 15: 100%

You're claiming a third of the people who play should be able to win a million dollars?
There must be something wrong with your calculation.

If you answered all questions randomly without using lifelines, then you would have a (1/4)^15 = 1 / 1073741824 chance of winning. Secondly, it's not purely a game of luck. If you make the conscious decision to learn about things in general, then you will have a better chance of winning.

The new itt is painful

>1/4 = 33.34%
>using a lifeline on a sub $1000 question
>1/2 = 100%

kys

Saying its 46% isn't really fair because
A) You didn't factor in how nervous the person is
B) You didn't factor in the extra 5% for the house advantage

Wouldn't the odds change depending on how lucky or unlucky the participant is?

C) You didn't use probability in any reasonable way

Holy shit are all of you retarded? Pointing that out when you miss the fact that he is literally calculating the average percent from each question to evaluate the overall probability of winning the entire game?

Only seems to have even noticed. Do you guys ever read whole bodies of text before responding or do you just jump at the first chance to yell at someone? It's such obvious bait...

>being this terrible at probability

Spot the newfags

Has no one itt took a stats course?

The chances are literally 50/50 either you do or you don't.

Christ brainlets get off my math board ffs

This many layers of stupidity would be too much for a troll, therefore I have to assume you're being serious.

Itt: newfegs reply to pasta

46% is wayyy too high are you sure you timesed it right?

Plus don't forget you can quit so wouldn't it be 1/3 chance lose 1/3 chance quit 1/3 chance win?

I literally have a degree in statistics and I can safely tell you that this is completely wrong. Pick up an intermediate-advanced textbook on stats and you will cover this

I almost forgot about this. The picture and everything. Is it wrong to feel nostalgia here?

hey retard...

probability of answering one question correct = 1/4

Suppose the three lifelines put you at 100% each, then you're answering 12 questions at 1/4 chance.

To figure out your probability of that, you get 1/(4^12) = 1/16,777,216 = 0.00000596% of guessing them all correctly...

you can't average a compounded percentage, what the fuck are you doing?

>falling for level 2 bait

hellooooooooo reddit

>implying i wouldn't get banned on reddit for saying retard

No, you miscalculated. It's actually 50% chance of winning. You either win or you don't. 50/50

>33.34%

Wouldn't that be a 25% chance? If one in four options is correct, thats 1/4, or 25%.

Retard. See:
GTFO faggot