I flip a biased coin

I flip a biased coin

What's the probability it's heads?

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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interpretations_of_quantum_mechanics
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Is this supposed to be answerable or is it just an epic meme?

How is a coin biased?

Whether it's answerable is entirely the point

Not 50%

Whatever the complementary probabilty of the bias towards tails is.

If you've done any probability theory in your life or have an ounce of common sense you should know what a fucking biased coin is

I haven't told you what the bias is

wow literally?

p(heads)= 1-p(tails)

Okay say I want to bet on heads being the outcome, what odds do you offer me?

let x be the probability of heads and y be the probabbabibability of tails, where x =/= y.

x+y=1 and so y=1-x and x = 1-y
x = 1 -1 + y
giving x = y

therefore the answer equals something its not allowed to equal due to boundary conditions, in other words it's a Barnett Paradox.

this arises when an assumption is made that it doesnt either happens or it do, which breaks mathematics.

in short, its always 1/2.

You realise that makes no sense right?

i have a PhD in Dimensional Superstatistics.

Ok you're memeing, it's hard to tell in this thread

x =/= y.

What is the numeric value for x?

i dont know if OP wants a serious answer.

the answer has been given. there are 2 variables and 2 unknowns, it's not possible to solve, all you can do is answer one unknown in terms of the other, which has been done.

>What's the probability it's heads?
zero, coins cant give head.

See Probability is the study of unknowns. Just as the outcome is unknown in this case so is the bias. You should be able to give it a definite probability

i did give it a definite probability.

the probability of it being heads is 1 minus the probability of it being tails.

if you flip the biased coin 100 times and tails comes up 66 times, then the probability of heads is 1-0.66 = 0.34.

I already answered this

Yeah i agree with you, i was intending to initiate a philosophical discussion about epistemology but it seems like this is the wrong board

You didn't give me a number you gave me a formula of numbers i haven't given you access to. You only have the fact the coin is biased. That's you know. I'm asking you to give me odds on the outcome, right now with only this information.

And you can't not answer just imagine this was a real world scenario and if you don't give me odds I'm stealing your wallet

when i flip a coin there's 100% chance i get heads

50% is obviously the correct odds.

I take the square root of x.

What is it?

OP has PhD in Hypothetical Inoperative Superstatistics.

0.5
Frequentists btfo

All of you are retards. The correct answer is 50%, it either is heads or it isn't.

why don't you ask a more interesting question, op?

it's 51%

Several of the people you responded to said it was 50%.

The answer would be 50%. Given that we have no information, it's equally likely that the coin is biased in favor of heads or in favor of tails. So, the information that the coin is biased is essentially useless, and if I were to give you odds () then I'd give you 50:50.

What if the coin landed at its edge?

bout tree fiddy

Correct answer. Source: I have a graduate degree in computer science.

This

zero. you just said it has two asses

ooooh

Since we know the coin is biased, isn't 50% the only value the answer can't be ?

That's still our best guess.

No. Probability is in the mind, not in the world itself. When any coin is flipped, presumably if you knew an extraordinary amount of information about the shape and weight of the coin, the currents in the air, the strength of the coin flipper and the angle at which he flips it, etc. you could predict with certainty how the coin will land. The less information you have, the less certainly you can predict the result. And if you have no information at all, you are left assigning equal probability to each outcome. These probability measures are not facts about the coin, they are facts about your knowledge of the coin.

Knowledge that a coin is biased, but not how it is biased, is not knowledge that makes one result of a single flip more likely than the other. This is basically because you expect half the time for the coin to be biased toward heads and half the time for the coin to be biased toward tails.

>No. Probability is in the mind, not in the world itself.

Holy shit engineers need to be euthanized, did you pay attention in any physics class past Dynamics?

I'm not an engineer. And that's not an argument.

(n*x):(n)

n:2

He's right though. Quantum effects are negligible in a coin throw.

...

like i said before it's 51% for the side on top i know what i'm talking about !

Precisely this. Good explanation.

Quantum effects also aren't definitely nondeterministic.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interpretations_of_quantum_mechanics

depends on your biased, if you think the probability will be 50/50 chances are you'll flip that coin enough times for it to be 50/50, though if you think it's 40/60 you'll do the same. Think about it in a more constructive based argument where your hypothesis is only dealt by your theory.