Probability question:

>implying Brexit will ever happen
Stay classy, /pol/.

someone on one of the /pol/ threads lurked her Twitter and said her kids aren't autistic, they all have fetal alcohol syndrome induced learning disabilities

>original poster all but explicitly says "hey I made this to troll people"
>better tell everyone how mad it made me

The question was
>If the occurrence rate of autism is 1.1 percent, according to autism.org.uk, then what is the chance of having 4 autistic children?
>Both if she only has 4 children or if she has more.

someone on one of the /pol/ threads is probably the owner of that account and just baiting

1.46 percent for the general population, but results can differ for the individual woman herself (or whichever man is impregnating her) if the kind of autism these kids have is legit, not misdiagnosed and is genetic, and she and/or the dad are carriers.

Now go back to /pol/ and don't come back here. Your kind aren't welcome here.

FAULTY PRIORS

lrn2bayes

Whoops meant 0.00000146 percent forgot a my zeroes.

Yeah and that question can't be answered with the given informationunless you assume that children from the save mother are independent events. They aren't.

This reminds me of that British doctor who went around telling people that mothers murdered their children because he assumed dead children were independent.

read
The assumption is that they're independent. Even if so, the third one definitely should've sent a signal.

If she's telling the truth, there must've been either two sets of twins, one set of triplets, or a set of quadruplets involved. These raise the chances, though not significantly enough for it to be very plausible.