You are on a game show and you have 3 identical doors. Behind one door is a car. Behind each of the other two is a goat.
You want to pick the door with the car but you don't know which one it is.
Once you pick a door, the host will flip a coin. If you picked a car, the host will always ask if you want to switch. If you picked a goat and the coin lands heads, the host will ask if you want to switch. If you picked a goat and the coin lands tails, the host will simply reveal your goat and you lose.
So you picked a door and the host asks if you want to switch.
How can an irrational number have infinite decimals if the point assigned to it on the number line is finite
Ayden Peterson
Id let the train go over the 5 people then tell it to reverse and run over the other people too
Jason Rivera
...
Jackson Campbell
Humans are brainlets.
Ethan King
It's 50/50
Ryan Kelly
Out of the way brainlet psueds, real Veeky Forums intellecual here to save the day.
You need to look at the problem in an entirely diffferent way. The Monty Hall problem isn;t looking at the probabilty of the prize behind a door, its looking at the probabilty of winning if you switch.
Since theres a 2/3 chance of you being wrong to begin with, if you initially choose the wrong answer (1/3 chance), and decide to make a switch once the other door is revealed then you are basically switching your starting probabilities (i.e: 1/3 to 2/3) so now you have a 2/3 chance of winning if you switch instead of the 1/3 chance if you stay with your original pick.
Of course, its a little more complicated and detailed than that, but I doubt Veeky Forums brainlets would be able to understand the details anyway.
Joseph Reed
not that hard just go through it once with always switch and once with always stay. In the end i get staying 33.3% and switching 16.7%. May as well have a tinking error there.
Andrew Carter
It doesn't matter because the RNG of the universe is rigged in such way that regardless of my choice the car will never be behind the door I choose. Heck, the door I open probably doesn't even contain a goat because it escaped.
Jacob Bell
Are people ITT pretending to be retarded, or did they just not read the question?
Probability you have the car after the host asks if you want to switch is:
P(C|A) = P(A|C)*P(C)/P(A) = (1)*(1/3)/(2/3) = 1/2
The other doors would each be 1/4, so no, you shouldn't switch.
Who needs a car anyways if you can pump oil inside a goat's asshole?
Andrew Carter
Oh look, it's this thread again.
Blake Collins
lel dumdum read the question again
Kevin Parker
That's not true because of pic related.
Alexander Gutierrez
it is 50:50 either there is a goat or isn't
Benjamin Sanchez
>you don't see the coin toss
Elijah Ward
The easiest way to explain the monty hall problem is this. Imagine the same game, but with 100 doors.
Now I let you pick 1 of the 100 doors. After that I open 98 doors to reveal there is no car, leaving only your chosen door and another one left. Do you switch to the other one or stay with your choice?
Ryder Martin
But I still don't get it. There is still a one-to-two chance either way right? Why does switching make the difference?
Jackson Perez
Oh i get it now lol
Christopher Long
>this is the average Veeky Forums user
Let me explain it flawlessly for you all.
You are effectively selecting a door two times, before he reveals one goat, and after he reveals one goat.
Initially you have a 2/3 chance of picking the wrong door.
Let's say you pick one of the wrong doors. He then, is forced to open the only other wrong door. Therefore switching will give the correct answer.
The above scenario happens 2/3's of the time which means that switching every time will give you a 2/3's probability.
The rest is self-explanatory e.g. picking the car right and switching to the wrong door will only happen 1/3 of the time because you will only initially pick the car 1/3 of the time.
For the "stay" option, you could either pick one of the goats and chose to stay even after the other is revealed (this doesn't happen with switch) (2/3's chance of this happening as well) or pick the car and get it right (only 1/3).
Countless simulations have proved this correct too. Now stop trying to prove the correct answer wrong. Find something better to do with your time.
