2017

>2017

>CRISPR is all around the research papers, it goes around really rapid with breakthroughs here and there every month

>bionics get more and more cheaper

>NSA wants to rush post-quantum cryptography, for they suspect quantum computation coming within the observable time scale

>the Moore's law doesn't look like it wants to slow down in all the field mentioned before

What will happen in the next 10-15 years? It all looks like upcoming major changes, the way I observe. Was Kurzweil right all the way?

Other urls found in this thread:

origene.com/CRISPR-CAS9/Starter-kit.aspx
motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/geneticists-are-concerned-transhumanists-will-use-crispr-on-themselves
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

You will die from cancer and shitty healthcare.

Nah, I am too young.
30-40 years later - more likely.

Bump.

Don't believe Veeky Forums has no interest in the fancy stuff you see in MIT press releases/Cell/Nature.

Lately, the stuff is getting more and more interesting.

I thought that Moore's law was not as accurate anymore due to physical limitations

Moores law still holds for the maybe next 10 years within the shrinking transistor paradigm. After this 3D transistors or maybe graphene meme will give it another boost. Till then quantum computer will be more widespread though they cant completely replace normal computing devices.

Silicon was the major problem in the 7 nm - 5 nm transition, but right now there are tons of replacement materials in development.

Hell, a 1 nm chip was successfully made at Berkeley in 2016.

The only reason (at least one of the primary reasons) there were crtiticisms to Moore's law was due to the fact, that everyone assumed there's no valid silicon replacement.

Right now there is.

It's still illegal to edit the human genome isn't it?
When will the tards in the white house do away with that already?

Thanks, didn't know any of this

Kinda? There are docs out there already in the US that can guarantee you having a kid with blue eyes. No, I am not talking about that laser treatment, I literally watched the doctor who performed the... selection? (I don't know what the right word for this might be) on screen and with the eggs from the mother.

Anyway.

Let's assuming that editing the human genome can yield real, marked results. Not shit like, "Oh now your kids can live longer." That just means longer geriatric medicine, yay for no one. You have to also factor in shit like quality of life for instance. No one wants to have Alzheimer's for forty years as an example.

My point here is that if China (cause it's going to be China) can show provable increases in IQ, physical fitness, etc. then you will see any taboo about this sort of work evaporate in the US overnight.

Why? To remain fiscally viable as a nation-state.

It has nothing to do with making your kids better, rather it has everything to do with being able to compete financially with the other countries that push their kids through this.

It will only get worse (way worse) if China starts up a mandatory program for all future children. The birthrate in China is currently pumping out over 16 million kids a year. Now imagine those 16 million chinks are all genetically engineered.

It's sink or swim at that point, and to be frank, I am pretty sure that it's a fight the US will lose because of completely different cultures. The only way to potentially off-set this is by taking a side-step via AGI, but that's doubtful as fuck because if we haven't figured it out by then - the genetically engineered mongrels have a much better chance by virtue of simply being more intelligent.

>NSA wants to rush post-quantum cryptography
This is because the NSA has backdoored many post-quantum algorithms, not because they're afraid of quantum computers.

I don't understand cryptology enough to know why people are concerned about this.

Isn't the whole idea:

>Quantum computers can handle multiple states
>This reduces the time to bruteforce a key down to a reasonable amount

Why not just increase the number of bits? Double them or quadruple them, or whatever amount is needed in order to normalize the difference, thereby eliminating the advantages conferred by quantum computers.

Gene therapy research is actually pretty heavily regulated. OHRP and FDA seem to have full authority over research. OHPR mandates that any research would have to pass through several ethical review boards would also be evaluated by FDA's Center for Biologis Evaluation and Research. NIH has a Recombinant DNA Advisory Committee, which has another set of guidelines and regulations for federally funded research.

Simply increasing key size makes it so a lot of embedded systems are no longer capable of secure communication. It also doesn't buy you as much time as switching to a quantum-safe cryptosystem.

It doesn't matter though, these regulations only exist because "reasons" and moral panic. China is already doing far more work than the US in this field because of the lack of regulations, and this will allow them to get at least a one to perhaps two generation lead on America if these changes yield any practical results.

This has potentially massive repercussions, and it isn't like you can just tell China: "No, stop making your kids better, that isn't fair." They'll just ignore you.

I agree with you about the inevitability of it once China does it, but China has such huge inequality that the vast majority of their population won't benefit from it for years. That 16 million number of gattaca kids is very much inflated. And if any sort of mandate happens with that stuff, their birth rate will plummet more.

That's the thing, the Party doesn't fuck around. They're an extremely powerful bureaucracy. If it is drilled into the heads of the rural poor that they MUST go to the government first, they'll do that. I state this with absolute conviction because the One-Child Policy was ruthlessly enforced, even in the most rural areas of the country. If this sort of program is introduced, and it isn't restricted to just the cities (which are even more regulated), I guarantee you we will see a lot more abortions or dead Asian babies because you didn't go through the right hoops in order to have that kid. 9 months is fuck all to the government. They know that the parents are forced to try and conceive because of their livelihood, so even if they don't want to - they got to. Which will lead to this permeating through every echelon of their society.

There is a clinical study of gene therapy in lung cancer in adult humans right now in China.

They are literally altering the genomes of patients via a viral vector and CRISPR-altered cells at this moment.

So yea. The China is the first to alter the genome is full-grown humans.

CRISPR is so cheap, you can get a kit and order plasmids at home to edit bacterial DNA.

In fact, the cheapness of the technology is that actually worries bioethicists and biologists, not its cost.

The huge costs arise from clinical study bureaucracy. The actual gene editing and injection of alteted cells with a viral vector costs very little.

I am sure a geek microbiologist could test gene editing on himself at home, even right now.

Except, I am sure there are only single crazy people in the world like that at the moment.

That one neuroscientist who went to like Bolivia or wherever to voluntarily have an implant of his own design stuck into his brain for a week would probably be up to it.

>the One-Child Policy was ruthlessly enforced, even in the most rural areas of the country
the one child policy never applied to the rural farm population dingus, farmers could have as many kids as they wanted otherwise rural society would have broken down

That's factually incorrect, even a simple Google search will show you how wrong your ass is.

Only under a single specific circumstance could rural farmers have more than one kid.

Get your fucking kit right now.

origene.com/CRISPR-CAS9/Starter-kit.aspx

The official trials and applications are heavily regulated. The buying and reselling all of these technologies to amateur labs is not regulated by any means.

Hell, I can recall a site, where I could purchase liters of AAV viral vector for injecting this stuff.

A mad scientist could be conducting illegal human/animal studies in an amateur lab right now, that's how cheap this shit is and how potentially dangerous.

For some reason this reminds me of when /pol/ thought they could magically purchase super-deadly strains of viruses and bacteria through automated labs back during their whole Ebola obsession.

Nope, you can actually order CRISPR-cas9 technology online.

You can buy viral vectors, RNA samples, plasmids, etc. Basically everything to edit a live mammal, that's how fresh and unregulated the commercial selling of this stuff is.

CRISPR is really easy and cheap, hence why its such a big thing.

You could get 20000$, a few geek microbiology/genetics majors and replicate whatever experiments have been done in your fucking basement.

This is how easy and available this technology is.

If something appears, it would instantly be done and sold by amateurs/private small companies. You wouldn't be able to hide life extension therapies with such low prices.

The actual puzzle is which genes to stimulate/cut/alter in any way, to achieve a desirable result, not the price itself.

Oh I know, I was just remembering a better time.

Also, I fully expect in twenty years from now we'll hear a literal Woz/Jobs story about two guys who did something in their garage and become billionaires based on CRISPR.

Anyone sort of want to be part of the first (Probably failed) wave of genetically/mechanically modified humans?

It seems better way to die than just killing myself

Don't kill yourself my dude.

Do you believe in AGI?

>What will happen in the next 10-15 years?
cat girls

I am a robotics and mechatronics major and sometimes I sincerely think, that if bionics advance to a state, where my forearm will be weaker than the robotic counterpart in every aspect, I would legitimately cut my arm off for a bionic one out of curiosity

And they probably will in the next 10-15 years as I see it. Soooo...

I'll have a hard time jacking off for sure.

>not getting the mechanically powered onahole attachment

You think too narrow.

If I end up 50 with no real rejuvenation in sight, I may as well start illegal amateur genetics research or enroll as a guinea pig in gene altering studies.

Literally "Become biologically immortal or die trying to" is my new LFDY.

I am 20 atm, so I am likely to see genetic rejuvenation in my lifetime anyway.

motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/geneticists-are-concerned-transhumanists-will-use-crispr-on-themselves

Literally this thread.

>I am 20 atm, so I am likely to see genetic rejuvenation in my lifetime anyway.

this, but in my dreams of the future, there would be extreme gene engineering that would make us a lot stronger, resistant to heat, cold, radiation, etc. and allow us to travel to different star systems and dominate alien weaklings

I personally think, we will realise that we need augmentation and it will eventually have demand.

Why? Because automation.

As a guy in robotics, I see all of that and I know that probably by mid-2020's there will be a world crisis, for machines will replace us too hard.

How would humanity solve this gap?

The only way would be germline/bionic augmentation commercially available to compete with robots.

AI will just push us to augment ourselves to stay relevant and competitive. We will need to be faster, smarter, stronger in order to compete with robots in the workplace, we all like to feel empowered, thus it is inevitable, that it will come.

Automation will push us to augmentation in 2025-2030 as I see it.

Holy fuck so crispr basically just jumped us ahead in this field like 10 years?

Furthermore, this competition with machines will push us to evolve.

Incremental augmentational changes will be passed down the germline, humans will synthetically evolve to a new stage.

I legitimately think, that given our current trends, Homo Sapiens the way it is will be gone by 2100 replaced by some kind of synthetic neo-humans to which we'll morph.

We'll be forced to artificially evolve ourselves to not get crushed by a superintelligent AI and be competent enough to contain and manage it.

The only way.

You are basing this on the idea that people would have more kids, while the statistics shows that there are less and less children in every part of the world. Even the biggest shitholes are having a steady birth rate decline. And automation is good for meaningless jobs like logistics or production that no one in the future would want to work.

And bionic augmentation is retarded. If you break your bionic arm, you'll have to replace it. But if you are genetically augmented, it will just fix itself. And that would be available in less than 20 years thanks to the soulless chinks.

You don't need kids, you could just change your own genes in 20 years or so, when the technology will be reliable enough.

Like a live evolution in one organism.

I hope the retard in this thread realizes that DNA treatment has nothing to do with changing your genes to any significant point.

Grown humans are grown humans, crispr can't really help them. Viral vectors, maybe but in very specific cases, miRNA too.

YOU are retarded

who's that shmoozy floozy?

Basically, 2 well known quantum algos can attack crypto. First, Shor's algo can factor integers into primes in 'quantum polynomial' time. This breaks RSA and similar systems that rely on the hardness of factoring.

Second, Grover's algorithm can effectively reduce the complexity of 'brute force' search by a square root. Since encryption algorithms have to get low enough complexity to encrypt when the key is known and still have high complexity for breaking the system, this algo makes this trade-off a lot harder.

Why do you think NSA has a massive data-center full of data it can't decrypt? Because they expect to be able someday. Right now, quantum computing is seen as a serious challenge for crypto and post quantum crypto is essentially a method that would potentially make decryption harder for NSA, so of course they're going to backdoor standards.

OP reporting back in.

Can't believe this thread is still alive though. Kinda happy.

>tfw

Are OCW microbiology/genetics worth a shot, if I want to know more about CRISPR/etc.? I am just an engineerfag with no prior biology knowledge.

Too bad intelligence has nothing to do with genes. Now return to /pol or wherever you came from.

lol.