Fermi paradox

>new happening just days ago
>scientists were described as "losing it" on Twitter
cautiously optimistic

>Where is everyone, Veeky Forums?
And since there is nobody to be seen that should imply that the assumption
1) there are other intelligent species
is false.
But that is just the first obvious assumption, there are a lot more to be considered:
2) They consider space travel economically feasible and practical even if it takes millennia and huge amount of energy
3) They arrived here just now and not billions of years ago or they arrived here billions of years ago and left something durable enough to be recognized of alien origin
4) They are willing to be seen
You need only one of these to be false.

This

Or last.

>third generation stellar system
>we wuz first

This picture is incredibly stupid and ignores the rules of game theory and basic human behaviour.

Imagine there is an alien entity you know absolutely nothing about. Then your first goal should be to acuqire information about it, and not to try kill it off immediatelly.
What if they are super advanced and can easily stop the projectile?
What if they live in space habitates?
What if other alien entities are watching what you are doing to them?

In either of those cases, you would be fucked.

Also, apart from that, there would be simply no political will to kill every other intelligent civilization with relativistic projectiles.
It is hard enough to persuade people to pay more tax to fight climate change, do you really think people would agree to more tax to kill every other intelligent entity in the universe?

hard to develop a civilization based entierly on helium and hydrogen

Actually called the fieest generation because of the retarded historical naming scheme. Regardless,
>hydrogen-based life

Radio communication is very primitive for a civilization that has travel between the stars meaning they use a form of communication we have yet to discover, as for aliens on par with us radio waves(from technology) dont go too far away from their parent star meaning they cannot beam transmissions to us at all.

fuck off humans, we're full

youtube.com/watch?v=rDPj5zI66LA

Metallicity can be detected even in early stars and the first generation of stars were short lived. I'm not arguing that BBN was enough for life just that enough star systems have existed that being first is unlikely.

So glad you posted Isaac, he has been a non-stop scourge of brain food for me going on weeks. This episode, dead aliens, and the new one about colonizing the moon are my favorites.

Everyone so far is wrong. The galactic order waits to contact a new civilization until after they have, on their own, managed to eradicate the intergalactic jew menace from their planet.

>911
digits confirmed

I can get behind the "too many gamma ray bursts until now" meme to explain we're first desu, although I'm still more inclined for great filter(s) and just the sheer size of space preventing contact with some ayys (and that we're either first or totally screwed)

well first of all, if one day they come, we will know it not a turn of luck and some random wandering, because space travel consume a lot of fuel,

if EM transmission and intrasolar arent powerfull enough, why not use the fact that valkirye engine could be detected by them to say , we are here

>great filter(s)

youtube.com/watch?v=Iy7NzjCmUf0

Has to be
>extremely
rare to pass that filter then. This video does kind of validate your second consideration (sheer size of space preventing contact), though, which I fully agree with.

Best channel

I think it's pretty possible filters can make life rare, what if bacteriophages didn't do a lysogenic cycle and keked life when it was unicellular? Hell, even our current socio-economic systems seem to be leaving us in a very fragile position. I wouldn't be surprised if industrial revolutions wiped out most sentient species

I think it's filters, too.

>Sentient life (prerequisite for any other filter)
>Basic environmental modification (fire/shelter)
>Agriculture
>Civilization
>Industrial revolution
>Nuclear revolution
>???
We don't know what the next filter is. I think it's
>Multiplanetary habitation

Since nuclear technology makes intrastellar travel a much more plausible feat, and no species is going to be around for more than a few million years if it's on a single planet. (At least, evolution doesn't seem to select the things hardy enough to survive longer for advanced intelligence)

So it's probably some mixture of
>Multiplanetary habitation
and
>Artificial Intelligence Revolution

That will mark the next filters we have to pass.

What are the chances alien life is humanoid?

What are the chances humans can breed with other humanoid lifeforms?

Extremely unlikely.

That was awesome. Also glad he suggests turning on the captions because I couldn't figure out what country he was from for at least a minute, then realized he was speaking American English

The first is significantly more likely than the second, but the first is incredibly slim.

If Star Trek is accurate 100%

Who needs space travel? EM signals are enough to detect an intelligent species.

>drawing any conclusions at all from set of size 1

There's plenty of ways for alien life to exist well before we did, even intelligently, without reaching the stars. Stephen Baxter (hard sci-fi writer) makes several.

Agriculture/civ/industry/nuclear are all required to start considering interplanetary travel.

Akind to planet earth, aliens are stuck in interstellar space traffic.

Fermi Paradox fails to account for pre-existing boundaries.
Humanity is well within the bounds of an exceedingly advanced, aggressive, territorial species.
They are completely uninterested in us, but will aggressively defend their territory if any other species tries to attack us.
We are an ant colony located in the middle of a massive military base. They do not care at all about us, but will get extremely aggressive to any who try and approach us.

Everyone is invisible to each other

Yes. If you want to talk stories or "what if", then sure. But we're talking our universe and as far as we know (which is admittedly close to nothing), we are alone. You don't know what the alien life would look and work life, so these "milestones" do not apply. They apply to life forms similiar to ours. If you want to talk stories, i can make up many life forms that wouldn't need any technology for interplanetary travel. But here, in reality, the fact is that we only know about us.

There's no easy way to leave one star system and colonize another. Any intelligent life probably never leaves the habitable zone of their host star.

I like this, it's plausible. We'd have won the galactic lottery if that was true though.

>also having a big brother ayy lmao race that watches over us sounds adorable

But what if they one day decide we've advanced technologically too far and they decide we're a threat to them and it's time for culling?
Or what if (put your tinfoil hat on) they were the ones that uplifted us in the first place? Don't ask me why, that's what you need the tinfoil hat for. Social experiment? They need a trustworthy ally? They're fattening us up to eat later?

All ayylmaos congregate to a single ideal star system filled with multiple ring worlds once they reach a certain tech level so that they can all benefit from the system advantages of living relatively close together. It is similar to how most humans congregate to large cities on earth. Sure many will live in the galactic boondocks in isolation just like how many live in rural areas hear on earth but their numbers and reach is limited.

I don't think that's the issue. He's got such an unusual accent, and he also pronounces his "r"s as "w"s which doesn't help

...

Theres alot of Fermi filters to get through..

Cosmological Filters
Star formed outside of galactic habitable zone.
Lack of accretion disk prevented planet formation.
Cosmic background radiation too high.
System forms more than two stars.
Solar output is stable.
Planet is obliterated after formation.

Life Filters
Accretion disk is low in metallic content.
Planet outside of habitable zone.
Organic compounds fail to self-replicate.
Core is not geologically active.
System lacks Jovian planets.
Planet lacks atmosphere.
Planet lacks liquid water.
Planet is tidally locked with star.
Planet becomes ejected from system.
Extreme tidal effect.
Van-Allen radiation envelopment.

Sapience Filters
Planet lacks a large moon.
Planet lacks oxygen.
Life doesn't reproduce sexually.
Planet has no axial tilt.
Life never develops K-selection strategy.
Lifeforms lack sentience.
Lifeforms lack risk aversion.

Technological Filters
Planet is non-terrestrial.
Extremely Low-Gravity
Lifeforms lack dexterity in manipulation.
Planet lacks high-energy fuel reserves.
Lifeforms lack abstract, rational or inductive reasoning.
Lifeforms are not omnivorous.
Lifeforms are not social.
Lifeforms lack formal language.
Lifeforms are not predatory.
Societies lack agriculture.

Apocalyptic Filters
Massive extraterrestrial impact event.
Climate change. (Natural or Induced).
Gamma ray burst.
Food chain collapse.
Massive celestial body intrusion.
Rouge pulsar.
Galactic plane irradiation event.
Grey Goo sceneario
Matter-Antimatter anihilation.
Massive seismic disruption.
Evolutionary regression.
Orbital ejection of planet.
Extraterrestrial predation.

Anyone else like reading "Humanity, Fuck Yeah"? It's my guilty pleasure.

I'd say about 100% safe to assume that ayys has some sort of arm-like appendages (or had before they all became brains-in-jar lifeforms and do everything using specialized drones)
I give it 20% chance the have/had 2 legs, 2 arms and a head
0% chance of impregnating ayylien pussy

Pets... for all we know they have been selectively breeding us for generations... not to eat us, or harm us, but because they think we are "cute". Compared to them we are relatively as smart as a cat is to us. They probably find our music to be enjoyable, all the other stuff we have ever accomplished to be trivial.

>lifeforms are not omnivorous
Why do you think this is a filter? I dont find it very hard to imagine a canivorous species forming a civilization based on animal husbandry.

It's easy really.
The amount of favorable factors to intelligent life to develop on this planet is through the roof.
Sure, we're catching up to the fact that stars without planets are just very rare happenings.
Most likely, life exists on a lot of them, but most likely unicellular stuff.
It's just fucking luck. Having that active core preventing death rays from reaching the surface + a large moon that stabilizes the rotation axis + more subtle factors.
It took billions of years for life to evolve from single cell to multi-cells.
Simple tards see god's hand in this. I say it's just that the conditions for intelligent life are fucking exigent. So in a universe that literally spawns billions of planetary systems by galaxy, we just happened to have a good one.

It's easy to look at images like this and thing "Oh man galaxies are so big, our's must be teaming with life".

But it's also horrifying looking at how large a galaxy is and thinking that life could be so rare it occurs on a level of something like once in every billion galaxies.

>humans are known as the artistic race across the galaxy
>they seem obsessed with physical beauty and perfection and as such their race and creations are usually very pleasant to look at
>even their ever blue ocean planet is breathtaking
>alien lifeforms enjoy watching us and our art on their devices in their free time

I kinda wanna read a novel about this. Expanding a bit more

>rarely humans are taken on spaceships and put in enclosures - more like zoos
>it's forbidden, but some members of alien races just can't help themselves
>outside the glass dome strange looking creatures are cheering and cooing at the two humans inside
>"What is wrong with these aliens?!"
>"....I think they want us to dance for them! hey man, what's your profession?"
>"college student. you?"
>"mechanic"
>"shiiiiiiiit we're fucked. What if they're going to eat us if they find out we can't actually--"
>"Be quiet for a second and let me think.... hm.. okay. You put your left hand on my hip, and"
>'You can't possibly be serious"
>"Just do it already! Do you have a death wish?! Good. Now, plaster smile on your face like you've just won the lottery and.... one two three, one two three, I'm not going to be eaten, I'm not going to be eaten"
>"dude, why are you the one leading?"
>"shut up"
>"you smell nice"
>"shut up, just shut up already, for the love of god"

sounds like a Kurt Vonnegut story, but more gay

>Imagine there is an alien entity you know absolutely nothing about. Then your first goal should be to acuqire information about it, and not to try kill it off immediatelly.

Imagine if Indians had watched the arrival of the first carriers of Smallpox. Let's say they have a remote idea that foreign entities can bring foreign diseases.

Would it have benefited them to stay and chat...or to simply arrow them to death?

>What if they are super advanced and can easily stop the projectile?

You have no idea what "super advanced" is. You're praying to God that they're cosmic adults, not children who have to follow the same laws of physics like everyone else.

>What if they live in space habitates?

You're making a lot of "what ifs" and ignoring the basic physics of what OP's image was talking about.

>What if other alien entities are watching what you are doing to them?

Current knowledge > the set of all possible conditions that could be in effect

Are you going to parse fucking infinity in that set or go off your current knowledge and understanding that even humans will kill each other preemptively and not for evil reasons?

>there would be simply no political will to kill every other intelligent civilization with relativistic projectiles.

You're assuming that we're going to be the same sheep and cows who support modern democracies. You can't assume the strategies of people who have engineered themselves to be stronger, faster, more aware, and vastly more intelligent.

Political will in the future = Sovereignty of individual units = unlimited lethality

EX: Ukraine gave up nukes in exchange for US promises. Ukraine gave up the ace in the hole for its national sovereignty. So Ukraine got invaded by an enemy that saw its weakness (Russia).

CONT.

The image had a bunch of good points I've never considered.

Funny enough, I think Arthur C. Clark (or Clark who encountered the notion of Von Neumann machines) already discovered the "best" solution for this deadly asymmetry of information.

Send observers around the universe so that you can spy on species. You might even help develop their evolution or alter their environment. There's a lot more possible "things" you could do with that but I don't have a handle on possible knowledge.

>tfw when we're galactic rednecks

Well it explains the Fermi paradox and makes for a nice story... humans the galaxy's must sought after pets.
Humans... the Tribbles of the galaxy

C is the great filter

We should just own it and develop the galactic equivalent of a 1982 Dodge Ramcharger with a 440 big block v8 swapped in for interstellar transportation

Which would be a more mind-blowing discovery -- finding Aliums, or somehow getting data to find that there aren't any?

Why explore space if you can simulate the universe?

>Why explore space if you can simulate the universe?

This is a possible reason for the Fermi paradox.
Most species completely live their lives in virtual world. Everyone connected and communication with each other.
They plug in to the network, tune in the species and tune out the galaxy

Probably confirmed aliums. Humans have been operating under the assumption that we're the only intelligent/dominant species in the universe so far, so while confirming we're alone would be a huge deal, we would just keep doing what we're doing. First official, acknowledged contact with aliums would change the course of our history forever. I say official and acknowledged because despite the naysayers, there is credible evidence that we've had secret contact with extraterrestrials in the past. Humanity as a whole finding out aliens are real would affect everything we do

yeah, simulations are safer, less expensive and might even reproduce our current universe with 99.999% of accuracy, so no need to travel insane distances, just simulate and observe the simulated universe. If advanced enough, they might even observe themselves observing themselves observing themselves....

what if they are already here

You still need to run experiments on your base reality to acquire new knowledge.

A combination of both interstellar exploration and VR seems like a more solid existential security than staying on one planet and immersing yourself in VR.

Though if you mean for a race with a functional UtoE and absolute knowledge about how shit works, then yeah I'd imagine they fuck off to VR until the lights go out in our universe if they can't possibly just flee to another.

really made neurons fire

ayy y

>until the lights go out in our universe

A stable small red dwarf should have a lifetime of TRILLIONS of years

I know, but trillions of years =/= forever.

A society that's advanced to the point have having no existential threats beyond the fate of the universe would still come to a conclusion as to whether or not there's anything to do about it, even if it's not really a worry for an incomprehensibly long time.

After a while, when they have done/seen/experienced EVERYTHING, death is the final unknown

Even if alien life WAS to contact us, do you think we'd even be told? I find it unlikely

>Unknown
That's a romanticization an alien might not share; or if there is an unknown about it, a society so advanced it's making plans on the timescale of trillions of years would likely have found out already.

>trillions of years
They would also be advanced so probably live life faster, far faster than our brains can follow.
So virtual number of years so large I do not have a name for it.

This leads to the idea that our reality is just a simulation for a super advanced being to "play" in. We have a "beginning" and a smallest scale lengths and time, and all energy/matter seems to follow predefined universal rules.

Lets us pray the creator did not leave any "bugs" in our universe simulation.

>mfw thinking about bugs in our simulation

Any spacefaring civilization would have long outgrown conflict because you need cooperation and coexistence to get into space in the first place.

Once every billion galaxies is still 100 billion forms of life

What would honestly change?

It'd just be District 9

I guess he included hat because living off meat exclusively makes it hard to sustain large populations.
Not sure if a filter is supposed to make it impossible, just harder. So it would be possible but unlikely for a carnivore to develop large populations.

The rest of the posts is garbage but he's right about space habitat, and no the picture doesn't address that. You can move one quite easily, and if you lose one it's not a big deal. Space mining is kind of ridiculous when you're inside a gravity well, so they'd have other reasons to have them around. You can sustain far more people that way too.

They could be extremely ethnocentric. Lots of self sacrifice for their own species but too heel with these others. Take that to the extreme and you get the zurgs.

You're taking a very anthropocentric view of life here

Perhaps so. Still, tool manipulation and being able to move resources with your population are definitely prerequisites for interplanetary travel at the least.

> canivorous species forming a civilization based on animal husbandry.

That's more of a social animal vs solitary animal distinction. Lets say cats want to domesticate animals. Anti-social carnivores are all stick and no carrot. Its harder to domesticate animals when they are terrified of the master. Social animals know how to lull dumber animals into false senses of security. Its a cognitive difference.

This is closer to the mark about non-omnivorous species.

Diversification of diet makes a species more likely to survive climate shifts and food chain collapses. In addition, omnivorous creatures have a better ability to distinguish between different colors, scents and shapes. In increase in sensory input related foraging. Add to that the omnivores need to remember more detailed information about eating habits. This selects brains with larger memory storage.

>Or what if (put your tinfoil hat on) they were the ones that uplifted us in the first place?

It'll be like first contact between primitive tribea nd the western world. Humanity would form a cargo cult around the aliens and subscribe to their vision of how culture should be. Many would emulate it and collaborate.

As for the reason they would be on earth it would be to assimilate genetic data or to use earth as a strategic position.

Those are the only unique resources we have.

the odds are in your favour if you want "life" somewhere else in the universe

it is almost completely certain that there is other complex life out there. at what stage is anybodies guess. for hundreds of millions of years earth was just plants and bacteria, then eventually animals for untold millenia

perhaps there is a human-like civilization a trillion light years away that we will literally never have contact with. perhaps there is a planet with a lake full of plankton or other goo that is "alive" but will not be a good friend for 100,000,000 more years

if you want to see aliens you will have to assume that they are so far advanced that space travel is easy enough to travel to a completely inferior race for no reason, and that they would have something to gain for contacting us

no point in going to a planet for resources if it's covered in other shit, there are billions of dead planets loaded to the core with rare minerals and gas pockets, if they wanted what we had it wouldnt be worth it to go to war or obliterate us, unless they were comically evil with an agenda of "wipe out all life in the universe"

it's like needing a few rocks for your patio and digging up an anthill to get some. its just not worth the hassle

>tfw you will never go on a spice-fueled jihad to kill the universal jew
why live

>ayys help develop life on a planet
>slowly guide it along
>form planet as a "colony"
>use planet to strengthen its position politically
>armada of vote-farm planets give political hegemony to seeding planet
you are thinking like a brainlet, space is really one gigantic gerrymander

what events do you consider to be credible in terms of secret contact with aliens?

>niggers trying to find civilizations that use smoke signals for transcontinental communications

You did, you poor sap. You said we had all the energy we needed, forever. You said 'forever.'"

"It was Adell's turn to be contrary. "Maybe we can build things up again someday," he said.

"Never."

"Why not? Someday."

"Never."

"Ask Multivac."

"You ask Multivac. I dare you. Five dollars says it can't be done."

Adell was just drunk enough to try, just sober enough to be able to phrase the necessary symbols and operations into a question which, in words, might have corresponded to this: Will mankind one day without the net expenditure of energy be able to restore the sun to its full youthfulness even after it had died of old age?

Or maybe it could be put more simply like this: How can the net amount of entropy of the universe be massively decreased?

Multivac fell dead and silent. The slow flashing of lights ceased, the distant sounds of clicking relays ended.

Then, just as the frightened technicians felt they could hold their breath no longer, there was a sudden springing to life of the teletype attached to that portion of Multivac. Five words were printed: INSUFFICIENT DATA FOR MEANINGFUL ANSWER.

Isaac Asimov, The Last Question

multipass?

I've read an other story that essentially says the same thing.

But that's an equally anthropocentric sort of view because it's based on a very recent understanding of the far, far future. If it is the case, then the universe had a good run.

Otherwise I like to stick around with the Stephen Baxter flavor of hard sci-fi.

so say you meet a alien what would you ask he/she/it/???/ ?

source?

>???
is obviously overpopulation/environmental damage