Fermi's Paradox

>No civilization is advanced enough for interstellar travel yet
None in our neighborhood, maybe.
There are at least 100 billion stars in the galaxy.
Never mind FTL limitations, just assume we invent warp drive tomorrow.
Let's say we build a thousand starships to explore the galaxy.
(for reference, we don't have a thousand ships in all the world's navies combined).
Assuming our thousand Captain Kirks explore two star systems a week, that's a hundred per year per ship, a hundred thousand systems a year in total.
It would take a decade to explore a million stars, a century to explore ten million, and a million years to explore the galaxy.
Other estimates put the number of stars as high as 400 billion.

The vast number of stars makes starfairing neighbors likely, but also means we're unlikely to bump into them.

When you get advanced enough for hueg space travel you already are advanced enough to immerse yourself completely in comfy anime VR
so that's what they do

Islamization

>comfy anime VR
Yeah, yeah....
And back when atomic weapons were brand new, people said "aliens all developed nukes and wiped themselves out".

I'm deeply suspicious of any explanation that posits our current situation is so important it defines the fate of every civilization in the galaxy.

But hey, maybe the aliens all invented fidget spinners, and are to busy doing sick tricks to come visit.

This. Only pop-sci meme-obsessed retards take Fermi's paradox seriously.

If space-faring civilizations exist then life must be somewhat common. If life is common, why would anyone want to visit some backwater primitive planet in the middle of nowhere? When building a new house, do you go around visiting every ant hive to greet them? Of course not, so why would aliens?

Intelligent life is self limiting.
The window between development of radio and species extinction due to trivial availability of doomsday weaponry is only a couple hundred years.

It's also too quick to develop practical interstellar travel or even intrasystem development.

We all gon die when some turbonerd in high school figures out cold fusion and starts a chain reaction that fuses the nitrogen in our atmosphere.

Fermi's Paradox BTFO

What's so terrifying?

>The window between development of radio and species extinction due to trivial availability of doomsday weaponry is only a couple hundred years.
[citation needed]
How many civilizations were included in the study that you're getting this info from?
What's the standard deviation on the "couple hundred years", and how many outliers can we expect?

The problem with "solving" the Fermi Paradox is that we have no real data to go on.

>Never mind FTL limitations, just assume we invent warp drive
Do you understand how ridiculous this statement is? You're asking me to suspend disbelief to such an extent that we're no longer discussing reality

>Do you understand how ridiculous this statement is?
Yes.
But I'm trying to establish an argument that doesn't rely on Relativity.
My point is that just the vast number of stars is sufficient reason to abandon the expectation of having encountered alien life.
Obviously, realistic physics would make it far less likely for us to encounter alien life.
I'm just trying to put the number of stars in an easily grasped scale.

(You)
On second thought, I'm ultimately responding to:
>No civilization is advanced enough for interstellar travel yet
...and my point is that our likely interstellar neighborhood is a tiny fraction of the universe, or even the galaxy.

There could be hundreds (thousands?) of interstellar civilizations in this galaxy alone, and we could still be isolated simply because most of the galaxy is still unreached by these folks, even if GR and light-speed weren't limits.

Intelligent life is everywhere but humans are the oldest and most advanced of it.

The galaxy is 14bi years old. If each star manages to successfully send colony ships to at most 2 neighboring stars, even if you can't travel faster than light it wouldn't take 1bi years to send ships to every star in it.

>No civilization is advanced enough for interstellar travel yet

you dont need interstellar travel for the paradox to hold, interstellar communication is enough for the paradox to hold

C is the great filter

>The galaxy is 14bi years old
First and second generation stars didn't produce rocky planets like Earth.
We are stardust.
Everything here on Earth besides hydrogen was created through nuclear fusion in the heart of some earlier star.

Apparently Earth formed very early compared to most other potential habitable planets.

iflscience.com/space/earth-may-have-formed-earlier-92-other-habitable-planets/
msn.com/en-us/sports/serie-a/earth-developed-faster-than-92percent-of-other-planets/vi-BBmiDKS

>each star manages to successfully send colony ships to at most 2 neighboring stars
How many "each star"s to start?
A single civilization adding two new stars, who each then colonize two more, etc?
That's exponential growth:
one homeworld
two 1st generation colonies, 3 worlds total
four 2nd generation colonies, 7 worlds total
...
1024 tenth generation colonies, 2047 worlds total
...
1,048,576 twentieth generation colonies, 2,097,151 total.
...but that's still only about 1/100,000th of the stars in the galaxy, and your aliens would have to have been very consistent about their expansion.
Centuries where every single colony (out of thousands to millions of colonies) continue to expand at the same rate.

But let's keep going:
1,073,741,824 30th generation colonies, 2,147,483,647 total worlds
OK, that's about 1% of the stars in the galaxy.

But which stars? 3/4 of the stars in the galaxy are red dwarfs, and people that would live in a red-dwarf system probably wouldn't be comfortable here.
And which planets? If the Earth's gravity is much higher or lower than you imperial aliens homeworld's gravity, then they probably won't move here.
So you don't just need a relentlessly expanding star-empire, you need one that keeps going for centuries (thousands of years?), AND one that can live comfortably here on Earth.
You also need them to be unopposed by other races, or at least capable of occupying this part of space by defeating local rivals.

What is he doing in that pic?

>What is he doing in that pic?
He looks stoned.

And if you ask "why no von Neumann probes?", then check out Haumea...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haumea

Interstellar communication by electro mag waves is limited by the speed of light anyway.

>C is the great filter

>interstellar communication is enough for the paradox to hold

>
>>C is the great filter
C and the inverse-square law.
And if there really is an exponential star-empire, that could mean only one society decides whether or not to contact us.

Are we transmitting anything powerful enough?
We only did once for a few seconds towards a specific target, then stop.
How can we expect other civilizations to send messages if even we don't do that?

what about it?

This is more of a statistical issue than UFOs or clusterfucks of conspiracy theories

If you search for something in the dark over an area;
>Covering ground will increase chances by a multiplier
>If whatever you're searching for wasn't there to begin with the chance is and was zero from the beggining

The "paradox" is basically:
>The chances increase as you find nothing

Which is a bit weirdly phrased because in order to have a chance of finding something, you have to know it exists, but how can you know if you haven't found it

As far as life forms go, not only is it plausible but it's inevitable to form life when the proper conditions are met.

>what about it?
It's oddly shaped, even for a Kuiper Belt object.
Just look at it.
Looks like a giant interstellar space-probe factory to me.
also:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haumea#Surface
>In 2005, the Gemini and Keck telescopes obtained spectra of Haumea which showed strong crystalline water ice features similar to the surface of Pluto's moon Charon.[16]
>This is peculiar, because crystalline ice forms at temperatures above 110 K, whereas Haumea's surface temperature is below 50 K,
>a temperature at which amorphous ice is formed.[16]
>In addition, the structure of crystalline ice is unstable under the constant rain of cosmic rays
>and energetic particles from the Sun that strike trans-Neptunian objects.[16]
>The timescale for the crystalline ice to revert to amorphous ice under this bombardment is on the order of ten million years,[43]
> yet trans-Neptunian objects have been in their present cold-temperature locations for timescales of billions of years.[34]

This implies it hasn't been in the Kuiper Belt long.

>>The chances increase as you find nothing
Um....

Your understanding of the odds changes.
But not the underlying chance of finding life in any given solar system.

thing is, if they did that, then they have AI's to take care of them

It seems to me that organic life has two options as technology increases (and it increases exponentially, at least here on earth): merge with the technology, or have the technology babysit you forever while it does everything (that's the comfy VR scenario)

If they've merged with the technology, then our aliens are robots (unlikely), they are their own computer systems (think intelligent starships/space stations, or even shit like the matrix) or it gets even crazier and they've become energy beings or basically gods. If you think little green men in a spaceship are literally going to fly astronomical distances to visit us on earth, that's because you're a normie who can't think outside it's own setting. Even if the aliens are still biological, if they wanted to explore earth, if they can get something here at all, they're probably advanced enough to send a microscopic drone that we can't even begin to detect. There could be an alien probe up your butt right now and you wouldn't know it.

Personally, I think the answer to the fermi paradox is that we aren't advanced enough to find even our closest neighbors, and/or that the universe has only recently calmed down enough for life to form and we're among the first (I pray we're the first and only). If they do exist on a comparable or greater level than us, they probably hide. It could be that we are seeing them right now, and like an ant crawling through a house, we just can't understand what we're looking at.

also, which is easier, creating a perfect virtual-reality paradise? or just controlling the chemicals in your brain so that you're always happy or whatever?

the implications for our own existence

They calculated the probability of life wrong.

>you're a normie who can't think outside it's own setting.

I'm not the one limiting the possibilities:
>life has two options as technology increases

I think there's a lot more possible outcomes.

>result of a giant collision
>hasn't been in its current orbit for long

wow really makes you think

>They calculated the probability of life wrong.
Even if life is very common, there's not much to go on when we ponder how likely contact is.
The universe might be swarming with life, but _their_ desire for contact (not ours) is a prerequisite since we aren't going anywhere ourselves.

>wow really makes you think
It's from the other side of the galaxy, and chock full of alien tech, I tell ya!

>I think there's a lot more possible outcomes.
yes, like, their AI could just abandon them or kill them, but I think the two options I gave are the only two we'll ever see. AI turning on it's creator is a meme, IMO.

>the two options I gave are the only two we'll ever see.
sure

ok

If you start looking for a marble on a carpet of finite surface, before you start, chances are equally distributed over smaller area units, if you check a surface area of a single unit and don't find it, you just increased the chances of finding it on the next piece of area because you "eliminated" one possibility by examining determining one out of two possible outcomes that are NOT equally probable.

So in a sense, yes, you increase the chances by not finding anything because you distribute equal chance over a smaller area because you just eliminated one area from the possibility of having whatever the fuck you're searching for.

Ok, I guess...

There is no paradox. There's either aliens or not

I got to over 1,000 ships by looking at the navies of the US, China, Russia and GB.

Which doesn't impact the rest of your post, but that point was in error/

...

Muslims

Possible solutions:
>A sufficiently advanced race goes inward, not outward. Once you are digitally/biologically immortal, you can go LARP in the matrix until the heat death of the universe. Why go exploring lame 3DPD shit?

>A sufficiently advanced race is indistinguishable from nature. Dark matter/energy? Nah that's the gold people of Omicron Persei 8

>A sufficiently advanced race just bails on this universe altogether. But that's not physically possible? Well no shit for us, but you can't predict how right or wrong scientific consensus is in the present.

>We are the first. Why not? The universe is supposedly going to be habitable for trillions of years, and it's only been a few billion.

>The universe is so fuckhuge that we just can't physically see one another.

>God didn't make other life-forms and just needed a universe that lasted an arbitrarily long time to have plenty of room for Christ's second coming.

Let's turn this on its head: let's say life in general is all over the goddamn place. Every place that can support life gets it to some degree of complexity. Aliens checking out worlds that can bear life, such as ours, becomes nearly as retarded as "Aliens invade because they want our [incredibly common resource]." In this scenario detecting Earth is about as interesting as detecting the billionth asteroid in the Oort cloud. Also, this means that sending directed signals to any particular system is dumb because all of them seem equally likely to harbor someone that can chat with you--you'd be sending them completely at random.

The only way to attract alien life in this universe would be to do something EXTREMELY fucking weird to your star. Make it blink out a message by building fuckhuge objects around it. That way everyone in your neighborhood will eventually figure out you need an alien buddy to talk with. In short, aliens will not come until humanity does something to make our solar system look funny.

>I got to over 1,000 ships by looking at the navies of the US, China, Russia and GB.
That's odd.
Wikipedia gives me higher numbers than the last time I Googled this.
Wikipedia is including patrol boats, and other smaller vessels.
I suspect my last source was only counting ships, not boats?
Either way, I still get only 1580 for those four.

GlobalFirePower.com includes boats as well as ships, and shows 4185 vessels for the world's top ten navies.
globalfirepower.com/navy-ships.asp
6,666 vessels for the world's top 30 navies.
9,231 vessels for all 105 navies worldwide.
That's a LOT more than I thought, but even if we build 9,231 starships, it still takes 108,330 years per hundred billion stars, so up to 433,320 years if there are 400 billion stars in the galaxy.

* And of course without without warp drive, non-FTL travel times go way up.
Instead of each ship exploring 100 stars per year, it's more likely to be 1 star every few decades.
Maybe less, since most stars are in the galactic core.
But even at one star per year, instead of up to 433,320 years to explore 400 billion stars, it would take 43.332 million years.

You have given me much to ponder.

This is mildly similar to what makes the interstellar community take notice of us in Star Trek.
Not the star bit, but the idea of doing something to demonstrate advancement/distinction.

there are no paradoxes

Really fires the synapses

This. Far too many assumptions have to be made to get any kind of accurate prediction out of it, at least as far as our concrete knowledge goes.

>confusing the fermi paradox with the drake equation

brainlets plz go

HOW MANY TIMES ARE YOU GOING TO MAKE THIS FUCKING THREAD?

is this a meme or something? I don't browse this board often, but every time I come here I always see a thread on this shit.

It's the BBC thread of Veeky Forums

That only works if you know there's a marble to find.

>existence
get a load of this guy

This, and that the Drake Equation ignores temporal framing. Given the history of the human race and how long we have been capable of recognizing alien contact, we could create a 10,000 year stellar empire from here and easily miss dozens of similar civilizations simply because they had their height at a different time (or not yet).

or, more appropriately, that you can see it.

Atheism ftw

I think that there are forms, protocols, and systems of communication in place that are not discovered yet. Currently, there are many different barriers to how quickly we are able to communicate on the scale of solar systems and galaxies.

Recently, the Chinese have been able to achieve quantum communication which fortifies the idea that FTL (faster than light) communication is possible. If some theories are correct, quantum communication protocols will happen instantly and have no factors of time. If we're able to open this ability of communication we may find the platform where we can exchange information with other sentient life in the universe.

If we assume that FTL communication is possible through the premise of qubits and quantum computing, we could potentially transmit information across super clusters instantly. If there is intelligent alien life, they might have developed a similar protocol for communication. I think that once we have a more robust knowledge about how entanglement works across vast distances, we might be able to develop an advanced system to `listen` and `transmit` signals that could potentially observe or communicate with extraterrestrial life.

How likely is it that intelligent life from across the universe or humans from the future have been able to communicate through anonymous platforms?

How likely is it that aliens have shitposted on Veeky Forums?

>Reptilian Jews turning the friggin Veeky Forums frogs gay

There are many Autistic people on Veeky Forums that are very weird just like Aliens.

>the Chinese have been able to achieve quantum communication which fortifies the idea that FTL (faster than light) communication is possible.
Wait, could you be less hand-wavy here?
The Chinese are using photons. How would that "fortify the idea" of FTL comms?

>If some theories are correct, quantum communication protocols will happen instantly and have no factors of time.
Do you even know what "theory" means in scientific terms?
Look, I understand the local hidden variables thing has been poo-poohed, but there's NOTHING FTL about quantum entanglement.
You can't use one particle to control the other, that's not the nature of their causal relationship.

>If we're able to open this ability of communication we may find the platform where we can exchange information with other sentient life in the universe.
What? You're not talking about discovering a new spectrum of a new fundamental force.
Quantum entanglement involves photons, electrons, etc we're already well aware of.
In the Chinese example, the communication involves photons.
We already know photons exist, and I think we'd notice if somebody were beaming them at us, even of we weren't aware of some kind of "entanglement modulation" protocol.

What you're hoping for would be more like radio was before we had scientific knowledge of it.
Or you could hang your hopes on more sensitive radio receivers.
We presently can't receive broadcasts similar to our own at interstellar distances.
There _could_ be another society similar to our own orbiting a nearby star, broadcasting at the same levels, but we'd never hear a thing.
A far more sensitive receiver than Arecibo could provide us the chance to eavesdrop on mundane radio signals.

>the chinese
I didn't know they were capable of telling the truth

We are probably because any intelligent life ends up destroying itself or keeps repeatedly setting itself back such that is it unable to escape its planet before its local star renders it uninhabitable

Cleansing by nuclear fire is the most popular scenario but it could happen through a variety of ways (e.g social upheaval)

>The "Great Filter" is a meme
Take that back

it's flawed as fuck to start with, not enough data to even construct anything, let alone call it a "paradox".

>energy beings
Stopped reading right there

ayy lmao

>any intelligent life ends up destroying itself or keeps repeatedly setting itself back such that is it unable to escape its planet before its local star renders it uninhabitable
see:
>How many civilizations were included in the study that you're getting this info from?
>What's the standard deviation on the "couple hundred years", and how many outliers can we expect?