DON'T LOOK!

DON'T LOOK!
THE MONTY HALL PROBLEM IS A LIE!

Other urls found in this thread:

wired.com/2014/11/monty-hall-erdos-limited-minds/
openprocessing.org/sketch/480963
twitter.com/NSFWRedditImage

Hi what is this thread about

Monty Hall problem is a classic probabilistic paradox.

OP could you please elaborate why and provide a caption to your image?
>it does not disprove that switching in the Monty-Hall problem reduces chances of winning the car

>Monty Hall problem is a lie
>pic correctly models the Monty Hall problem, with the 2/3rds chance of getting the car by switching
really deflowers my almonds

>Being this illiterate
It literally says 1/6 chance dipshit

>paradox
No its not you silly man .

you change = 2/3 car

you stick = 2/3 goat

You only stand to lose by switching if you had already chosen the car, which you only have a 1/3 chance of doing. Meaning that you have a 1-1/3 chance of winning if you switch... or a 2/3 chance.

>tries to disprove Monty Hall
>literally posts a proof of Monty Hall

If you initially choose a goat and decide to switch you can still get the other goat

yes. then?

I mean, maybe. The goat is always revealed, but I guess if you really want a goat, and ask the host nicely, he'll let you switch to the goat anyways.

not true. he will always reveal another goat after you make your first pick

A goat is always revealed. If you pick a goat, the goat you didn't pick is revealed.
If you switch you win.
its that easy.
the above happens 2 outta 3 times, cause there are 2 goats outta 3 choice doors. One outta 3 times you'll have picked the car and switched to a goat.

Switching is a greater opportunity to win.

>Paul Erdős, one of the most prolific mathematicians in history, remained unconvinced until he was shown a computer simulation demonstrating the predicted result (Vazsonyi 1999).
hahaha

50/50

I did 100 trials on a simulator and got about 50-50 both ways.

I don't understand why so many people have a hard time believing switching would get you a win more often than staying. Is this some sort of ingrained expectation of equality screwing with people's intuitions or something?

wired.com/2014/11/monty-hall-erdos-limited-minds/
>Pigeons repeatedly exposed to the problem show that they rapidly learn always to switch, unlike humans (Herbranson and Schroeder, 2010).
Virgin conscious thinking BTFO by Chad animal instinct.

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They don't imagine the 2/3rd chance and 1/3rd chance - they see 2 doors and think 50/50

openprocessing.org/sketch/480963

>you can count to 31 on one hand in finger binary
>you can count to 160 on two hands in finger binary
I feel as if I were cheated as a toddler.

if you pick a goat he has to reveal another goat, the only time you lose is if you pick the car, which is less likely to happen than picking a goat.

you can count to 992 on two hands in finger binary

11111 11111 = 1023

that's bertrand russel in your pic...

>you can count over a thousand on two hands in finger binary
>meanwhile we've only been taught to count to 10 cause ten fingers

You can count to 1023 with 10 bits, you guys are retarded.

Finger binary would work a lot better if you could move your ring finger independently. It doesn't take a genius to figure out why it hasn't caught on.

Don't be a brainlet, programmers use hex to represent binary because its annoying af to read and to work with.

Toddlers are taught it this way because we need mental representations of numbers to do maths at all.

to clearify, if you don't teach them to count like this first, they won't be able to do binary.

yeah but addition and multiplication in binary is way simpler.

I know right! What if I want the goat?!

I just whipped up a sim of this on Python. (I don't know how to write code here so I'll just use a screenshot). The output after 10,000 trials was
Swap win percentage: 66.73%
Stay win percentage: 33.27%
Which while not conclusive, does add credence to swapping being twice as likely to win you the car.

I ironed out some kinks in the code, and the result is the same.

u

Really nice way to put it.

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