The goat either IS or ISN'T behind the door. If you take out the choosing door part, it's clearly 50% chance. You can't refute this.
If you flip a coin, it's heads or tails.
If you pick a card it's red or blue.
Get your shit straight!
The goat either IS or ISN'T behind the door. If you take out the choosing door part, it's clearly 50% chance...
Kevin White
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Jace Rodriguez
suppose the guy offered u 100 doors u pick one and he opens 98.
do u switch?
Hudson Taylor
Absolutely. The probability when you picked the first door was 1/100 and the probability when you pick the second door regardless of whether or not you were actually correct in your initial guess is 1/2. Is this not obvious?
Xavier Ross
The non autistic answer is that it doesjt matter because you already have one of the last two doors selected. Your odds are the same.
Joseph Ross
it's non autistic and also wrong
Dylan Ortiz
when you first pick a door, the chance of the car being behind the other two doors combined is 66%. When the host reveals the goat behind of those two doors, the chance of there being a car in the one that's left is still 66%.
Grayson Price
Look at it this way, if you stick with your original door you have 99/100 chance of being wrong because there were 100 doors when you selected. If you swap you have a 1/2 chance of being wrong because you are literally told one of these two doors still has the prize.
Benjamin Ward
No, the other doors have been opened, so if you stick with your original choice, you know the goat is behind 1 of 2 of those doors, so your odds are 1 in 2
James Moore
This is actually testably false. Our intuitions about probabilities are just bad.
Nathaniel Roberts
what makes this not the intuitive answer is the fact that it could be either door